Kevin Hassett’s August 9 CNN interview mixed several defensible observations with some claims that are wrong, overstated, or based on unusually favorable framing. My overall assessment would be roughly “partly accurate, but substantially misleading”, especially on employment and inflation.
Transcript: CNN State of the Union transcript
| Hassett claim | Assessment | Why |
|---|---|---|
| July weakness largely reflected government/teachers and FIFA-related hospitality jobs | Partly true, but misleading | Government fell 53,000 and leisure/hospitality fell 40,000, but the seasonally adjusted data are designed to account for normal summer school closures. BLS did not attribute the hospitality decline to FIFA. |
| Remove those factors and employment was about +100,000 | Not supported by the arithmetic | Starting from −23,000, adding back all government losses (+53k) and all leisure/hospitality losses (+40k) gives about +70,000, not +100,000. |
| Job growth since Trump took office is about 880,000 | Incorrect using the current BLS series | For the 18 full months February 2025–July 2026, payrolls rose 548,000, exactly the figure Tapper cited. |
| Manufacturing employment fell 230,000 under Biden | False | Revised BLS data show manufacturing employment rose from about 12.142 million in Jan. 2021 to 12.673 million in Jan. 2025, an increase of roughly 531,000. |
| Initial unemployment claims are the lowest since World War II | False as stated | Latest claims were 199,000; they were 192,000 in April 2019, which DOL described as the lowest since 1969. |
| More job openings than unemployed workers | Technically true, barely | June had 7.36 million openings and about 7.1 million unemployed—essentially 1.0 unemployed person per opening. |
| CPI was negative in June and core CPI was around zero | Essentially correct | June headline CPI fell 0.4% month-to-month; the near-zero core reading supports this portion of his point. |
| Both headline and core PCE were negative | Half wrong | Headline PCE fell 0.1%, but core PCE rose 0.1%, not fell. |
| “Inflation is running at about zero” | Highly misleading | That is based on one unusually soft month. Year-over-year CPI was 3.5%; headline PCE was 3.7% and core PCE 3.3%. |
| Tariffs aren't creating an inflation problem | Contradicted by Fed research | Federal Reserve research estimates substantial tariff pass-through to consumer prices and about a 0.8% boost to core PCE prices from tariffs implemented through Nov. 2025. |
| 50% of U.S. imports are capital goods | Overstated | June capital-goods imports were $125.5B out of $306.2B of goods imports—about 41% of goods imports, and substantially less if services imports are included. |
| Oil prices have fallen about 50% from the conflict peak | Probably exaggerated | EIA says Brent fell from an April peak roughly $32 above June's $85 average—large, but not generally a 50% decline. |
| Overall economy is “really, really booming” | Opinion not well supported by headline GDP | Q2 real GDP growth was 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1. However, underlying private domestic demand was quite strong at 3.9%, so there is some basis for optimism. |
Hassett said July's −23,000 payroll figure was largely caused by teachers “taking July off” and FIFA ending.
There really were sizeable declines in the relevant categories. BLS shows:
But there is an important problem with the teacher explanation: those are seasonally adjusted figures. Normal school-year employment patterns—including the routine summer decline—are supposed to be removed by seasonal adjustment. An unusually large seasonal-adjustment error is possible, but simply saying teachers “take July off” does not explain a seasonally adjusted decline.
And BLS did not say FIFA caused the leisure/hospitality decline. That is Hassett's interpretation. It could have contributed to particular locations or businesses, but the national data don't establish that causal story.
His arithmetic also doesn't quite work:
-23 + 53 + 40 = +70 thousand
Even if we unrealistically remove every government and leisure/hospitality loss, the result is about +70,000, not his “about 100,000.”
There was, incidentally, one genuinely stronger number hidden underneath the headline: private-sector payrolls rose 30,000, while government fell 53,000.
Tapper said employment had increased 548,000 over Trump's 18 full months. Hassett replied that he had just seen a figure of about 880,000.
The current benchmarked BLS numbers strongly favor Tapper.
February 2025 payroll employment was:
158.310 million
July 2026 was:
158.858 million
Difference:
548,000.
BLS's annual benchmark revision was unusually large: March 2025 employment was revised downward by 898,000, and total 2025 job creation was revised from +584,000 to only +181,000.
My suspicion is that Hassett's roughly 880,000 number came from an older, pre-benchmark vintage or a calculation that included January 2025. But with the official data available on the morning he spoke, 548,000 is the appropriate figure for the 18 full months of the Trump presidency.
That makes this exchange more consequential than a minor disagreement over definitions.
Hassett said:
“The number of manufacturing jobs under Joe Biden dropped by 230,000.”
The revised BLS series says approximately:
January 2021: 12.142 million manufacturing jobs
January 2025: 12.673 million
That's an increase of about:
+531,000.
One can reasonably argue that much of that was recovery from the COVID recession rather than new structural manufacturing growth. But that is a different claim. Saying manufacturing employment fell 230,000 during Biden's presidency is inconsistent with the BLS data.
Interestingly, manufacturing has subsequently been weak. As of July 2026 it stood at 12.611 million, below January 2025's 12.673 million.
This is another case in which Hassett had a legitimate positive statistic but exaggerated it.
Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 1 were only 199,000, and the four-week average was 198,750. Those are unquestionably very low levels.
But in April 2019 claims fell to 192,000. At the time, DOL explicitly described that as the lowest since September 1969.
So:
“Unemployment claims are extremely low” → correct.
“The lowest since World War II” → incorrect.
He could potentially construct a population- or labor-force-adjusted claims rate that is historically exceptional, but that isn't what he said.
This was one of his strongest factual claims.
June JOLTS showed:
7.36 million job openings
versus
about 7.1 million unemployed people.
BLS describes this as 1.0 unemployed person per job opening.
So technically there are still more openings than unemployed people. But this is no longer the dramatically tight labor market of 2021–22; the ratio is essentially one-to-one.
Hassett correctly noted that June's headline CPI was negative. CPI fell 0.4% in June, while year-over-year inflation remained 3.5%.
But then he said:
“The PCE index … was negative both for core and top line.”
That's wrong.
June PCE was:
Headline: −0.1%
Core: +0.1%.
And over 12 months:
Headline PCE: +3.7%
Core PCE: +3.3%.
Therefore his statement that inflation was “running at about zero” takes a single unusually favorable monthly observation and presents it as though it describes the inflation trend.
The quarterly picture makes that especially clear. In Q2, BEA estimates:
PCE inflation: 5.1% annualized
Core PCE: 3.4% annualized.
So I would regard “inflation is running at about zero” as substantially misleading, even though June itself was an unusually good inflation month.
Tapper referred to Federal Reserve research showing tariffs had been passed through into consumer prices.
Hassett argued that falling monthly inflation undermined that conclusion.
But a Fed FEDS Note published in April estimated that tariffs implemented through November 2025 had raised core goods PCE prices about 3.1%, accounting for essentially all of the excess core-goods inflation relative to pre-pandemic rates, and had added roughly 0.8% to the overall core PCE price level.
A separate Fed study found roughly 15–20% consumer-price pass-through, depending on the methodology.
That doesn't mean tariffs explain all current inflation. They don't. But Hassett's suggestion that the June inflation reading essentially disproves tariff pass-through doesn't follow economically: prices can receive a one-time upward tariff shock and then subsequently exhibit a low monthly inflation rate.
June Census data show:
Total goods imports: $306.2 billion
Capital-goods imports: $125.5 billion
That's about:
125.5 / 306.2 = 41.0%
—not 50%.
Capital-goods imports are nevertheless extremely elevated: they were up 37.4% from June 2025. That's significant evidence supporting Hassett's broader point that U.S. businesses are importing a lot of investment equipment.
But those imports don't by themselves demonstrate that tariff policy is causing successful reshoring. Some may be AI equipment, computers, semiconductor equipment, machinery and other capital investment unrelated—or only indirectly related—to tariffs.
Q2 real GDP rose only 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1. That's not what economists normally call a booming headline growth rate.
There is, however, a strong fact in Hassett's favor: real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. That strips away volatile inventory, trade and government effects and indicates quite strong underlying private demand.
So a fair description would be:
Headline growth and job creation are weak, but underlying private demand and capital investment remain considerably stronger than the headline figures suggest.
That's much more defensible than either “the economy is collapsing” or “the economy is booming.”
Clearly or substantially correct: job openings still exceed unemployment; claims are exceptionally low; June headline inflation was negative; capital-goods imports and private investment are strong.
Partly correct but exaggerated: special factors hurt July payrolls; the underlying economy is stronger than the −23,000 jobs number suggests; capital goods make up an unusually large share of imports.
Incorrect or materially misleading: 880,000 Trump jobs; Biden losing 230,000 manufacturing jobs; claims being lowest since WWII; core PCE being negative; inflation “running at zero”; simply removing teachers/FIFA producing +100,000 jobs; treating the latest inflation figures as evidence against tariff pass-through.
The biggest factual problems are the 880,000 employment claim and the −230,000 Biden manufacturing claim. Those are not matters of interpretation—the current BLS data point in the opposite direction.