CBO PROJECTIONS OF FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES: 1997-2050
(Percent of GDP)
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1997 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Discretionary Grows with Economy after 2008 with Economic Feedbacks
Receipts........... 21 21 20 20 20 20 20
Outlays............ 22 21 20 22 25 30 43
Discretionary.... 6 5 4 4 4 4 4
Mandatory........ 13 13 15 17 18 21 21
Social Security 4 4 5 6 6 7 7
Medicare....... 3 3 4 5 6 7 7
Medicaid....... 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
Other.......... 5 5 4 4 4 4 4
Net Interest..... 3 2 1 1 2 6 19
Surplus/Deficit.... 0 0 1 -1 -5 -10 -23
Public Debt........ 47 42 21 17 40 93 206
GDP ($trillion).... 8.1 9.2 14.6 22.4 33.1 48.5 67.7
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1997 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Discretionary Grows with Economy after 2008 without Economic Feedbacks
Receipts........... 21 21 20 20 20 20 20
Outlays............ 22 21 19 21 24 26 27
Discretionary.... 6 5 4 4 4 4 4
Mandatory........ 13 13 15 16 18 20 20
Social Security 4 4 5 5 6 6 6
Medicare....... 3 3 4 5 6 7 7
Medicaid....... 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
Other.......... 5 5 4 4 4 4 4
Net Interest..... 3 2 1 1 1 2 4
Surplus/Deficit.... 0 0 1 -1 -3 -5 -7
Public Debt........ 47 42 21 15 32 61 94
GDP ($trillion).... 8.1 9.2 14.6 22.9 35.1 54.0 82.1
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CBO PROJECTIONS OF FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES: 1997-2050
(Percent of Receipts)
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1997 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Discretionary Grows with Economy after 2008 with Economic Feedbacks
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Outlays............ 104.8 100.0 100.0 110.0 125.0 150.0 215.0
Discretionary.... 28.6 23.8 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Mandatory........ 61.9 61.9 75.0 85.0 90.0 105.0 105.0
Social Security 19.0 19.0 25.0 30.0 30.0 35.0 35.0
Medicare....... 14.3 14.3 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 35.0
Medicaid....... 4.8 4.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 15.0 15.0
Other.......... 23.8 23.8 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Net Interest..... 14.3 9.5 5.0 5.0 10.0 30.0 95.0
Surplus/Deficit.... 0.0 0.0 5.0 -5.0 -25.0 -50.0 -115.0
Public Debt........ 223.8 200.0 105.0 85.0 200.0 465.0 1030.0
GDP ($trillion).... 8.1 9.2 14.6 22.4 33.1 48.5 67.7
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1997 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Discretionary Grows with Economy after 2008 without Economic Feedbacks
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Outlays............ 104.8 100.0 95.0 105.0 120.0 130.0 135.0
Discretionary.... 28.6 23.8 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Mandatory........ 61.9 61.9 75.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 100.0
Social Security 19.0 19.0 25.0 25.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Medicare....... 14.3 14.3 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 35.0
Medicaid....... 4.8 4.8 10.0 10.0 10.0 15.0 15.0
Other.......... 23.8 23.8 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Net Interest..... 14.3 9.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 10.0 20.0
Surplus/Deficit.... 0.0 0.0 5.0 -5.0 -15.0 -25.0 -35.0
Public Debt........ 223.8 200.0 105.0 75.0 160.0 305.0 470.0
GDP ($trillion).... 8.1 9.2 14.6 22.9 35.1 54.0 82.1
Note: The CBO's Base Scenario assumes economic feedbacks.
Source: CBO Report, Long-Term Budgetary Pressures and Policy Options,
May 1998, Tables 2-1 and 2-4
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