CBO PROJECTIONS OF FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS: 1998-2070
(Percent of GDP)
--------------------------------------------------------
1998 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
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MAINTAIN TOTAL SURPLUSES
Receipts........... 21.7 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1
Outlays............ 20.8 18.1 19.6 21.7 23.3 25.5 30.2 44.9
Discretionary.... 5.4 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7
Mandatory........ 12.7 13.9 16.7 18.5 19.1 19.3 19.9 20.8
Social Security 4.3 4.6 5.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.5 7.3
Medicare....... 2.4 3.4 4.8 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.7
Medicaid....... 1.2 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Other.......... 4.8 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5
Net Interest..... 2.7 0.2 -1.0 -0.7 0.3 2.3 6.4 20.4
Surplus/Deficit.... 0.9 3.0 1.5 -0.6 -2.2 -4.4 -9.1 -23.8
Primary Surplus/Def 3.5 3.2 0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -2.1 -2.7 -3.4
Public Debt........ 44.1 1.5 -16.7 -11.3 8.0 35.9 85.5 206.8
GDP ($trillion).... 8.5 14.3 21.7 32.5 48.8 72.1 103.8 138.7
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1998 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
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NO ASSET BUILDUP
Receipts........... 21.7 21.1 20.8 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.1 n.c.
Outlays............ 20.8 18.1 20.5 22.9 25.0 28.4 37.8 n.c.
Discretionary.... 5.4 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 n.c.
Mandatory........ 12.7 13.9 16.7 18.6 19.1 19.3 20.1 n.c.
Social Security 4.3 4.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.9 n.c.
Medicare....... 2.4 3.4 4.8 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 n.c.
Medicaid....... 1.2 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 n.c.
Other.......... 4.8 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 n.c.
Net Interest..... 2.7 0.2 -0.1 0.4 2.0 5.2 13.9 n.c.
Surplus/Deficit.... 0.9 3.0 0.3 -1.7 -3.9 -7.3 -16.7 n.c.
Primary Surplus/Def 3.5 3.2 0.2 -1.4 -1.9 -2.1 -2.8 n.c.
Public Debt........ 44.1 1.5 0.0 8.8 33.4 73.4 158.8 n.c.
GDP ($trillion).... 8.5 14.3 21.5 32.1 47.8 69.7 96.5 n.c.
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1998 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
--------------------------------------------------------
MAINTAIN OFF-BUDGET SURPLUSES
Receipts........... 21.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 n.c. n.c.
Outlays............ 20.8 19.0 21.3 24.3 27.9 35.6 n.c. n.c.
Discretionary.... 5.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 n.c. n.c.
Mandatory........ 12.7 14.0 16.9 18.8 19.5 19.8 n.c. n.c.
Social Security 4.3 4.6 5.5 6.2 6.3 6.6 n.c. n.c.
Medicare....... 2.4 3.4 4.8 5.9 6.2 6.3 n.c. n.c.
Medicaid....... 1.2 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.2 n.c. n.c.
Other.......... 4.8 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 n.c. n.c.
Net Interest..... 2.7 0.7 0.2 1.3 4.3 11.7 n.c. n.c.
Surplus/Deficit.... 0.9 1.7 -0.5 -3.6 -7.2 -14.9 n.c. n.c.
Primary Surplus/Def 3.5 2.3 -0.4 -2.3 -2.8 -3.2 n.c. n.c.
Public Debt........ 44.1 10.1 4.4 24.6 66.5 145.0 n.c. n.c.
GDP ($trillion).... 8.5 14.2 21.4 31.8 46.6 65.4 n.c. n.c.
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1998 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
--------------------------------------------------------
NO SURPLUSES
Receipts........... 21.7 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Outlays............ 20.8 20.5 23.6 28.4 37.6 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Discretionary.... 5.4 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Mandatory........ 12.7 14.3 17.2 19.1 19.9 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Social Security 4.3 4.6 5.5 6.3 6.7 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Medicare....... 2.4 3.4 4.9 5.9 6.2 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Medicaid....... 1.2 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Other.......... 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Net Interest..... 2.7 1.6 1.9 4.8 13.3 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Surplus/Deficit.... 0.9 -0.2 -3.3 -8.1 -17.3 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Primary Surplus/Def 3.5 1.4 -1.4 -3.4 -4.0 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Public Debt........ 44.1 26.2 34.4 77.5 168.6 n.c. n.c. n.c.
GDP ($trillion).... 8.5 14.1 21.0 30.6 42.7 n.c. n.c. n.c.
============================================================================
CBO PROJECTIONS OF FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS: 1998-2070
(Percent of Receipts)
--------------------------------------------------------
1998 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
--------------------------------------------------------
MAINTAIN TOTAL SURPLUSES
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Outlays............ 95.9 85.8 92.9 102.8 110.4 120.9 143.1 212.8
Discretionary.... 24.9 19.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 17.5
Mandatory........ 58.5 65.9 79.1 87.7 90.5 91.5 94.3 98.6
Social Security 19.8 21.8 25.6 28.9 28.9 28.9 30.8 34.6
Medicare....... 11.1 16.1 22.7 27.5 29.4 29.9 30.8 31.8
Medicaid....... 5.5 9.0 11.8 13.3 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.1
Other.......... 22.1 19.4 19.0 18.0 17.5 17.1 17.1 16.6
Net Interest..... 12.4 0.9 -4.7 -3.3 1.4 10.9 30.3 96.7
Surplus/Deficit.... 4.1 14.2 7.1 -2.8 -10.4 -20.9 -43.1 -112.8
Primary Surplus/Def 16.1 15.2 2.4 -6.2 -8.5 -10.0 -12.8 -16.1
Public Debt........ 203.2 7.1 -79.1 -53.6 37.9 170.1 405.2 980.1
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1998 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
--------------------------------------------------------
NO ASSET BUILDUP
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 n.c.
Outlays............ 95.9 85.8 98.6 108.5 118.5 134.6 179.1 n.c.
Discretionary.... 24.9 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.0 n.c.
Mandatory........ 58.5 65.9 80.3 88.2 90.5 91.5 95.3 n.c.
Social Security 19.8 21.8 26.4 28.9 28.9 29.4 32.7 n.c.
Medicare....... 11.1 16.1 23.1 27.5 29.4 29.9 30.8 n.c.
Medicaid....... 5.5 9.0 12.0 13.3 14.7 15.2 15.2 n.c.
Other.......... 22.1 19.4 19.2 18.0 17.5 17.1 17.1 n.c.
Net Interest..... 12.4 0.9 -0.5 1.9 9.5 24.6 65.9 n.c.
Surplus/Deficit.... 4.1 14.2 1.4 -8.1 -18.5 -34.6 -79.1 n.c.
Primary Surplus/Def 16.1 15.2 1.0 -6.6 -9.0 -10.0 -13.3 n.c.
Public Debt........ 203.2 7.1 0.0 41.7 158.3 347.9 752.6 n.c.
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1998 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
--------------------------------------------------------
MAINTAIN OFF-BUDGET SURPLUSES
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 n.c. n.c.
Outlays............ 95.9 91.8 102.9 117.4 134.8 172.0 n.c. n.c.
Discretionary.... 24.9 20.8 20.3 20.3 19.8 19.8 n.c. n.c.
Mandatory........ 58.5 67.6 81.6 90.8 94.2 95.7 n.c. n.c.
Social Security 19.8 22.2 26.6 30.0 30.4 31.9 n.c. n.c.
Medicare....... 11.1 16.4 23.2 28.5 30.0 30.4 n.c. n.c.
Medicaid....... 5.5 9.2 12.1 13.5 15.0 15.5 n.c. n.c.
Other.......... 22.1 20.3 19.8 19.3 18.4 17.9 n.c. n.c.
Net Interest..... 12.4 3.4 1.0 6.3 20.8 56.5 n.c. n.c.
Surplus/Deficit.... 4.1 8.2 -2.4 -17.4 -34.8 -72.0 n.c. n.c.
Primary Surplus/Def 16.1 11.1 -1.9 -11.1 -13.5 -15.5 n.c. n.c.
Public Debt........ 203.2 48.8 21.3 118.8 321.3 700.5 n.c. n.c.
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1998 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
--------------------------------------------------------
NO SURPLUSES
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Outlays............ 95.9 101.0 116.3 139.9 185.2 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Discretionary.... 24.9 22.7 22.2 22.2 21.7 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Mandatory........ 58.5 70.4 84.7 94.1 98.0 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Social Security 19.8 22.7 27.1 31.0 33.0 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Medicare....... 11.1 16.7 24.1 29.1 30.5 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Medicaid....... 5.5 9.4 12.8 14.3 15.3 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Other.......... 22.1 21.7 20.7 20.2 19.2 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Net Interest..... 12.4 7.9 9.4 23.6 65.5 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Surplus/Deficit.... 4.1 -1.0 -16.3 -39.9 -85.2 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Primary Surplus/Def 16.1 6.9 -6.9 -16.7 -19.7 n.c. n.c. n.c.
Public Debt........ 203.2 129.1 169.5 381.8 830.5 n.c. n.c. n.c.
n.c. = not computable (debt would exceed levels that the economy could
reasonably support).
Scenarios
---------
1) Maintain Total Surpluses: all projected surpluses materialize; when the
public debt is repaid, use surpluses to accumulate private assets.
2) No Asset Buildup: same as above but with no asset buildup; when the public
debt is repaid, use surpluses to increase spending and/or cut taxes.
3) Maintain Off-Budget Surpluses: protect Social Security surplus; use the
rest of the surpluses to increase spending and/or cut taxes.
4) No Surpluses: use all surpluses to increase spending and/or cut taxes.
Note: In the graph of Projected Federal Outlays, net interest is projected to
be negative from about 2011 to 2037. Hence, the upper line shows the
total of all outlays except net interest for these years and the line
just below it shows the total of all outlays.
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook: An Update
December 14, 1999; the report can be found online at
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=1806&sequence=0&from=1
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