HOSPITAL INSURANCE TRUST FUND - INCOME, OUTGO, AND BALANCE: 1966-2002
(in billions of 1992 dollars - Maximum Earnings in 1992 dollars)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Maximum Composite
Total Total Fund HI Tax Earnings Outlay
Year GDP Outgo Income Balance Rate Taxed Deflator
---- ------- ------ ------ ------- ------ ------- --------
1966 3279.7 0.3 4.0 3.7 0.35 28758 0.2295
1967 3428.6 11.0 13.0 5.7 0.50 27872 0.2368
1968 3515.6 15.5 15.8 5.8 0.60 31592 0.2469
1969 3638.1 18.3 20.5 7.7 0.60 29931 0.2606
1970 3650.6 17.9 20.3 9.7 0.60 28210 0.2765
1971 3665.9 19.0 20.5 10.6 0.60 26540 0.2939
1972 3768.8 20.1 19.3 9.2 0.60 28818 0.3123
1973 3984.1 20.9 25.5 13.3 1.00 32927 0.3280
1974 4054.4 22.7 32.7 22.3 0.90 37215 0.3547
1975 3964.5 27.1 32.1 25.2 0.90 35960 0.3921
1976 4121.0 30.0 32.3 25.8 0.90 36437 0.4199
1977 4342.3 33.5 33.9 24.5 0.90 36344 0.4540
1978 4555.5 36.8 38.2 24.3 1.00 36442 0.4857
1979 4738.8 38.6 41.6 25.4 1.05 43478 0.5267
1980 4672.5 41.7 43.7 24.9 1.05 44509 0.5819
1981 4748.6 45.6 51.2 28.2 1.30 46254 0.6421
1982 4677.8 50.8 54.8 30.4 1.30 47196 0.6865
1983 4755.9 53.6 61.1 19.2 1.30 49618 0.7195
1984 5052.4 56.1 60.6 22.8 1.30 50099 0.7545
1985 5239.6 62.2 65.1 27.2 1.35 50581 0.7829
1986 5433.9 61.7 70.1 48.0 1.45 52174 0.8050
1987 5566.4 61.4 75.8 61.2 1.45 52943 0.8273
1988 5796.3 61.7 79.6 77.1 1.45 52656 0.8546
1989 6011.9 65.4 84.4 93.0 1.45 53920 0.8902
1990 6140.8 72.0 85.9 103.3 1.45 55418 0.9257
1991 6043.1 73.0 87.7 113.4 1.45 128932 0.9695
1992 6143.2 82.0 92.7 120.6 1.45 130200 1.0000
1993 6311.7 89.4 93.0 123.0 1.45 131682 1.0252
1994 6510.1 98.0 101.2 123.5 1.45 no max 1.0492
1995 6688.6 106.9 106.9 120.5 1.45 : 1.0745
1996 6809.8 116.2 112.4 114.0 1.45 : 1.0991
1997* 6960.7 122.4 113.4 102.1 1.45 : 1.1283
1998* 7091.7 112.1 114.0 101.3 1.45 : 1.1589
1999* 7236.8 114.3 116.3 100.6 1.1900
2000* 7398.9 114.8 118.7 101.9 1.2222
2001* 7568.2 119.0 121.0 101.3 1.2544
2002* 7747.3 122.5 123.5 99.7 1.2863
----------------------------------------------------------------------
* estimated
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 1998, Historical
Tables, table 10.1 and 13.1; HI Tax Rate and Maximum Earnings
from http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/taxRates.html
Note: Large decrease in outgo ($10.3 billion) in 1998 and thereafter
is mostly due to moving home health care from HI to SMI program;
HI Tax Rate is paid by employer and employee, each;
starting in 1994, all earnings are subject to the HI tax
SUPPLEMENTARY MEDICAL INSURANCE - INCOME, OUTGO, AND BALANCE: 1966-2002
(in billions of 1992 dollars)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Composite
Total Total Premium % of Fund Outlay
Year GDP Outgo Income Income Outgo Balance Deflator
---- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------- --------
1966 3279.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2295
1967 3428.6 3.4 5.4 2.7 81.1 2.1 0.2368
1968 3515.6 6.2 5.5 2.8 45.6 1.2 0.2469
1969 3638.1 7.1 7.3 3.5 49.1 1.5 0.2606
1970 3650.6 7.9 6.8 3.4 42.6 0.2 0.2765
1971 3665.9 7.8 8.6 4.3 54.9 1.0 0.2939
1972 3768.8 8.1 8.8 4.3 52.7 1.5 0.3123
1973 3984.1 8.0 8.8 4.4 54.1 2.3 0.3280
1974 4054.4 9.3 10.7 4.8 51.9 3.6 0.3547
1975 3964.5 10.6 11.1 4.8 45.6 3.7 0.3921
1976 4121.0 12.4 11.9 4.6 37.3 2.9 0.4199
1977 4342.3 14.0 16.3 4.8 34.6 5.0 0.4540
1978 4555.5 15.1 18.6 5.0 33.1 8.2 0.4857
1979 4738.8 16.7 18.7 5.0 29.9 9.5 0.5267
1980 4672.5 18.5 17.7 5.0 27.2 7.8 0.5819
1981 4748.6 20.6 19.4 5.2 25.1 5.8 0.6421
1982 4677.8 22.7 25.7 5.6 24.6 8.5 0.6865
1983 4755.9 25.5 26.6 5.9 23.1 9.2 0.7195
1984 5052.4 27.0 29.9 6.5 24.1 11.7 0.7545
1985 5239.6 29.0 31.4 7.1 24.3 13.6 0.7829
1986 5433.9 32.6 31.1 7.1 21.7 11.7 0.8050
1987 5566.4 37.3 33.6 7.8 21.0 7.7 0.8273
1988 5796.3 40.9 41.0 10.2 25.1 7.5 0.8546
1989 6011.9 43.0 49.2 13.0 30.1 13.4 0.8902
1990 6140.8 46.5 49.3 12.4 26.7 15.7 0.9257
1991 6043.1 48.5 49.7 12.2 25.1 16.2 0.9695
1992 6143.2 50.3 53.1 12.7 25.4 18.5 1.0000
1993 6311.7 52.9 59.3 14.3 27.1 22.7 1.0252
1994 6510.1 56.9 54.7 16.1 28.3 19.9 1.0492
1995 6688.6 60.7 54.1 17.9 29.5 12.9 1.0745
1996 6809.8 62.7 74.6 17.2 27.5 24.5 1.0991
1997* 6960.7 67.8 70.7 16.9 24.9 26.8 1.1283
1998* 7091.7 85.3 86.4 17.7 20.8 27.1 1.1589
1999* 7236.8 90.1 90.7 18.8 20.9 27.0 1.1900
2000* 7398.9 93.8 94.4 19.9 21.2 26.9 1.2222
2001* 7568.2 99.3 99.8 21.0 21.2 26.8 1.2544
2002* 7747.3 105.9 106.5 22.5 21.3 26.7 1.2863
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
* estimated
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 1998,
Historical Tables, table 10.1 and 13.1
Note: Large increase in outgo ($17.5 billion) in 1998 and thereafter
is mostly due to moving home health care from HI to SMI program
Among the points that the above graphs and tables illustrate are the
following:
1) Spending for Hospital Insurance (Medicare Part A) and Supplementary
Medical Insurance (Medicare Part B) has been generally growing at
a faster rate than the GDP.
2) The third graph shows a close correlation between the growth in HI
income as a percent of GDP and the HI Tax Rate. This may not be too
surprising. If you assume that the wage base is growing at about the
same rate as the GDP, then a constant tax rate should bring in the
same percentage of GDP. This implies that the main reason for the
rising HI Tax Rate is to support HI's above GDP growth.
This correlation appears to break down a bit starting around 1991.
But, as the first table shows, this is the year that the Maximum
Earning Taxed more than doubled. The maximum was completely eliminated
in 1994.
3) The second (and fourth) graph shows the relatively small portion of
Supplementary Medical Insurance that is paid by premiums. The second
table shows that this portion is projected to drop from a recent high
of 29.5% of outgo in 1995 to around 21% from 1998 through 2002.
4) There is a relatively large drop in outgo projected for the HI program
in 1998 and a large increase in outgo projected for the SMI program in
that same year. This is mostly due to the administration's plan to
move home health care spending from the HI to the SMI program.
Go to Budget Home Page
