LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS OF 2003 BUDGET POLICY: 2000-2075
(Percent of GDP)
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2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2075
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Discretionary Grows with GDP
Receipts........... 20.8 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.6 19.6
Outlays............ 18.4 18.7 18.0 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.3 32.7
Discretionary.... 6.3 6.9 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
Mandatory........ 9.8 10.3 10.7 12.5 14.4 15.6 16.5 19.8
Social Security 4.2 4.2 4.4 5.4 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.9
Medicare....... 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.9 4.8 5.5 7.7
Medicaid....... 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.6
Other........... 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
Net Interest...... 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 7.1
Surplus/Deficit.... 2.4 0.5 1.2 0.8 -1.1 -2.9 -4.8 -13.2
Primary Surplus/Def 4.7 2.1 2.2 0.9 -0.9 -2.0 -2.8 -6.1
Public Debt......... 35.0 29.2 19.1 2.9 4.4 20.9 46.5 165.2
(prior budget)... 34.7 17.5 2.3 -21.8 -27.5 -17.8 1.3 108.0
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2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2075
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Discretionary Grows with Inflation
Receipts........... 20.8 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.6 19.6
Outlays............ 18.4 18.7 18.0 17.6 18.3 18.7 19.0 22.5
Discretionary.... 6.3 6.9 6.2 5.1 4.3 3.7 3.1 2.1
Mandatory........ 9.8 10.3 10.7 12.5 14.5 15.6 16.5 19.9
Social Security 4.2 4.2 4.4 5.4 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.9
Medicare....... 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.9 4.8 5.5 7.7
Medicaid....... 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.6
Other........... 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6
Net Interest...... 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 0.5
Surplus/Deficit.... 2.4 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.5 -2.9
Primary Surplus/Def 4.7 2.1 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -2.4
Public Debt......... 35.0 29.2 19.1 -0.5 -10.9 -13.9 -14.6 12.8
(prior budget)... 34.7 17.5 2.3 -25.5 -42.3 -50.8 -56.8 -41.7
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LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS OF 2003 BUDGET POLICY: 2000-2075
(Percent of Receipts)
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2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2075
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Discretionary Grows with GDP
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Outlays............ 88.5 97.4 93.8 95.8 105.2 114.9 124.0 166.8
Discretionary.... 30.3 35.9 32.3 30.2 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.6
Mandatory........ 47.1 53.6 55.7 65.1 74.2 80.4 84.2 101.0
Social Security 20.2 21.9 22.9 28.1 32.5 33.0 32.7 35.2
Medicare....... 9.6 10.9 12.0 15.1 20.1 24.7 28.1 39.3
Medicaid....... 5.8 7.8 9.4 11.5 12.4 13.9 15.3 18.4
Other........... 11.5 12.5 12.0 10.4 9.3 8.8 8.2 7.7
Net Interest...... 11.1 8.3 5.7 0.5 1.0 4.6 10.2 36.2
Surplus/Deficit.... 11.5 2.6 6.3 4.2 -5.7 -14.9 -24.5 -67.3
Primary Surplus/Def 22.6 10.9 11.5 4.7 -4.6 -10.3 -14.3 -31.1
Public Debt......... 168.3 152.1 99.5 15.1 22.7 107.7 237.2 842.9
(prior budget)... 166.8 91.1 12.0 -113.5 -141.8 -91.8 6.6 551.0
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2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2075
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Discretionary Grows with Inflation
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Outlays............ 88.5 97.4 93.8 91.7 94.3 96.4 96.9 114.8
Discretionary.... 30.3 35.9 32.3 26.6 22.2 19.1 15.8 10.7
Mandatory........ 47.1 53.6 55.7 65.1 74.7 80.4 84.2 101.5
Social Security 20.2 21.9 22.9 28.1 32.5 33.0 32.7 35.2
Medicare....... 9.6 10.9 12.0 15.1 20.1 24.7 28.1 39.3
Medicaid....... 5.8 7.8 9.4 11.5 12.4 13.9 15.3 18.4
Other........... 11.5 12.5 12.0 10.4 9.3 8.8 8.7 8.2
Net Interest...... 11.1 8.3 5.7 0.0 -2.6 -3.1 -3.1 2.6
Surplus/Deficit.... 11.5 2.6 6.3 8.9 5.7 4.1 2.6 -14.8
Primary Surplus/Def 22.6 10.9 11.5 8.9 3.1 1.0 -0.5 -12.2
Public Debt......... 168.3 152.1 99.5 -2.6 -56.2 -71.6 -74.5 65.3
(prior budget)... 166.8 91.1 12.0 -132.8 -218.0 -261.9 -289.8 -212.8
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2003, Analytical
Perspectives, page 45, Table 3-2;
Budget of the United States Government, FY 2002, Analytical
Perspectives, page 24, Table 2-2
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