LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS OF 2004 BUDGET POLICY: 2000-2080
(Percent of GDP)
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2060 2080
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Discretionary Spending Grows with GDP
Receipts........... 20.8 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.2 19.3
Outlays............ 18.4 19.6 21.0 24.4 27.8 36.7 52.7
Discretionary.... 6.3 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Mandatory........ 9.8 11.3 13.2 15.5 16.8 19.0 22.8
Social Security 4.2 4.3 5.3 6.2 6.4 6.6 7.1
Medicare....... 2.0 2.6 3.4 4.6 5.5 7.0 9.3
Medicaid....... 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.2 4.0 5.0
Other.......... 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4
Net Interest..... 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.9 5.0 11.7 23.9
Surplus/Deficit (-) 2.4 -1.2 -2.2 -5.4 -8.8 -17.5 -33.5
Primary Surplus/Def 4.7 0.6 -0.4 -2.5 -3.8 -5.8 -9.6
Public Debt........ 35.1 35.7 35.1 56.7 98.4 229.4 466.1
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LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS OF 2004 BUDGET POLICY: 2000-2080
(Percent of Receipts)
-----------------------------------------------------
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2060 2080
-----------------------------------------------------
Discretionary Spending Grows with GDP
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Outlays............ 88.5 106.5 111.7 128.4 146.3 191.1 273.1
Discretionary.... 30.3 35.3 31.9 31.6 31.6 31.3 31.1
Mandatory........ 47.1 61.4 70.2 81.6 88.4 99.0 118.1
Social Security 20.2 23.4 28.2 32.6 33.7 34.4 36.8
Medicare....... 9.6 14.1 18.1 24.2 28.9 36.5 48.2
Medicaid....... 5.8 10.3 12.8 14.2 16.8 20.8 25.9
Other.......... 11.5 13.0 11.2 10.0 8.9 7.8 7.3
Net Interest..... 11.1 9.8 9.6 15.3 26.3 60.9 123.8
Surplus/Deficit (-) 11.5 -6.5 -11.7 -28.4 -46.3 -91.1 -173.6
Primary Surplus/Def 22.6 3.3 -2.1 -13.2 -20.0 -30.2 -49.7
Public Debt........ 168.8 194.0 186.7 298.4 517.9 1194.8 2415.0
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FEDERAL DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC
(Percent of GDP)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2075 2080
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2004 Budget 35.1 35.7 35.1 56.7 98.4 229.4 466.1
2003 Budget 35.0 29.2 19.1 2.9 4.4 20.9 46.5 165.2
2002 Budget 34.7 17.5 2.3 -21.8 -27.5 -17.8 1.3 108.0
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PERCENT CHANGE IN LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM 2003 TO 2004 BUDGET
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2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2075 2080
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Discretionary Spending Grows with GDP
Receipts........... 2.1 -4.2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.6 -2.0 -1.7 -1.5
Outlays............ 1.6 8.9 14.1 19.6 24.7 32.7 32.7 48.9 53.3
Discretionary.... -7.2 4.8 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
Mandatory........ 2.4 5.6 5.6 7.6 7.7 8.5 6.6 10.4 11.4
Social Security 1.2 -2.3 -1.9 -1.6 0.0 1.6 -0.0 1.1 1.4
Medicare....... 9.5 13.0 17.2 17.9 14.6 13.6 9.7 13.3 14.3
Medicaid....... 3.3 5.6 9.1 12.5 18.5 20.0 23.5 31.9 34.4
Other.......... 0.0 4.3 5.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 -3.8 -5.0 -5.4
Net Interest..... 28.1 63.6 1700.0 1350.0 455.6 317.5 189.6 193.7 194.3
Surplus/Deficit (-) 20.0 -200.0 -375.0 390.9 203.4 174.0 114.5 123.5 125.1
Primary Surplus/Def 26.2 -72.7 -144.4 177.8 90.0 71.4 40.8 41.8 42.0
Public Debt........ 21.2 86.9 1110.3 1188.6 370.8 252.5 144.1 146.3 146.7
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2004,
Analytical Perspectives, page 41, Table 3-2;
Budget of the United States Government, FY 2003,
Analytical Perspectives, page 45, Table 3-2;
Budget of the United States Government, FY 2002,
Analytical Perspectives, page 24, Table 2-2
Note: Table 3-2 is titled "LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS OF 2003 BUDGET POLICY"
in the 2004 Budget. This is likely meant to be "2004 BUDGET POLICY" as
the text states "The revenue projections in this section start with the
budget's estimate of receipts under the Administration's proposals".
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