LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2013 BUDGET: 1980-2085
(percent of GDP)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2085
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........... 19.0 18.0 20.6 15.1 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.9
Outlays............ 21.7 21.9 18.2 24.1 22.5 24.5 26.0 27.0 27.7 28.6 29.4 29.9
Discretionary.... 10.1 8.7 6.3 9.1 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Mandatory........ 9.6 9.9 9.7 13.6 14.0 15.8 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3
Social Security 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.9 5.2 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8
Medicare....... 1.1 1.7 2.0 3.1 3.3 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1
Medicaid....... 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8
Other.......... 3.7 3.2 2.4 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6
Net interest..... 1.9 3.2 2.3 1.4 3.2 3.8 4.6 5.6 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.6
Surplus/Deficit (-) -2.7 -3.9 2.4 -9.0 -2.8 -4.5 -5.8 -6.6 -7.2 -7.9 -8.6 -9.0
Primary Surplus/Def -0.8 -0.6 4.7 -7.6 0.4 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4
Debt Held by Public 26.1 42.1 34.7 62.8 76.5 84.2 103.5 124.4 143.7 161.8 180.8 190.6
LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2013 BUDGET: 1980-2085
(percent of receipts)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2085
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Outlays............ 114.2 121.7 88.3 159.6 114.2 122.5 128.7 133.0 135.1 138.2 141.3 143.1
Discretionary.... 53.2 48.3 30.6 60.3 26.9 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.9
Mandatory........ 50.5 55.0 47.1 90.1 71.1 79.0 81.2 80.8 79.5 78.7 78.4 78.0
Social Security 22.6 23.9 19.9 32.5 26.4 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 27.8
Medicare....... 5.8 9.4 9.7 20.5 16.8 21.5 23.8 24.6 24.4 24.6 24.5 24.4
Medicaid....... 2.6 3.9 5.8 12.6 11.2 12.5 13.9 14.8 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.4
Other.......... 19.5 17.8 11.7 24.5 17.3 15.5 14.4 13.8 13.2 12.6 12.5 12.4
Net interest..... 10.0 17.8 11.2 9.3 16.2 19.0 22.8 27.6 31.7 35.3 38.9 41.1
Surplus/Deficit (-) -14.2 -21.7 11.7 -59.6 -14.2 -22.5 -28.7 -32.5 -35.1 -38.2 -41.3 -43.1
Primary Surplus/Def -4.2 -3.3 22.8 -50.3 2.0 -3.5 -5.9 -5.4 -3.4 -2.9 -2.4 -1.9
Debt Held by Public 137.4 233.9 168.4 415.9 388.3 421.0 512.4 612.8 701.0 781.6 869.2 912.0
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LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2012 BUDGET: 1980-2085
(percent of GDP)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2085
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........... 19.0 18.0 20.6 14.9 19.9 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.2
Outlays............ 21.7 21.9 18.2 23.8 23.0 25.3 27.3 28.7 29.9 31.3 32.7 33.5
Discretionary.... 10.1 8.7 6.3 9.0 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
Mandatory........ 9.6 9.9 9.7 13.5 13.9 15.8 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.1
Social Security 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.8 5.1 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.9
Medicare....... 1.1 1.7 2.0 3.1 3.3 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3
Medicaid....... 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
Other.......... 3.7 3.2 2.4 3.7 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6
Net interest..... 1.9 3.2 2.3 1.4 3.4 4.1 5.3 6.5 7.7 8.9 10.2 10.9
Surplus/Deficit (-) -2.7 -3.9 2.4 -8.9 -3.1 -5.5 -7.2 -8.2 -9.2 -10.4 -11.6 -12.3
Primary Surplus/Def -0.8 -0.6 4.7 -7.6 0.2 -1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
Debt Held by Public 26.1 42.1 34.7 62.2 76.7 90.4 116.7 144.3 170.0 196.7 225.2 239.9
LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2012 BUDGET: 1980-2085
(percent of receipts)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2085
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Outlays............ 114.2 121.7 88.3 159.7 115.6 127.8 135.8 140.0 144.4 149.8 155.0 158.0
Discretionary.... 53.2 48.3 30.6 60.4 28.6 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.9
Mandatory........ 50.5 55.0 47.1 90.6 69.8 79.8 82.6 81.5 80.7 80.9 80.6 80.7
Social Security 22.6 23.9 19.9 32.2 25.6 28.8 28.4 27.3 27.1 27.3 28.0 27.8
Medicare....... 5.8 9.4 9.7 20.8 16.6 21.7 24.4 24.9 25.1 25.4 25.1 25.0
Medicaid....... 2.6 3.9 5.8 12.8 12.1 14.1 15.4 16.1 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.6
Other.......... 19.5 17.8 11.7 24.8 16.1 15.2 13.9 13.2 12.6 12.4 11.8 12.3
Net interest..... 10.0 17.8 11.2 9.4 17.1 20.7 26.4 31.7 37.2 42.6 48.3 51.4
Surplus/Deficit (-) -14.2 -21.7 11.7 -59.7 -15.6 -27.8 -35.8 -40.0 -44.4 -49.8 -55.0 -58.0
Primary Surplus/Def -4.2 -3.3 22.8 -51.0 1.0 -7.6 -9.5 -8.3 -6.8 -6.7 -6.6 -6.6
Debt Held by Public 137.4 233.9 168.4 417.4 385.4 456.6 580.6 703.9 821.3 941.1 1067.3 1131.6
========================================================================================================
CHANGE IN LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2012 TO THE 2013 BUDGET: 1980-2085
(percent of GDP)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2085
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Receipts........... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3
Outlays............ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -1.3 -1.7 -2.2 -2.7 -3.3 -3.6
Discretionary.... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
Mandatory........ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8
Social Security 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Medicare....... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Medicaid....... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5
Other.......... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Net Interest..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.3
Surplus/Deficit (-) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.3
Primary Surplus/Def 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Debt Held by Public 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 -0.2 -6.2 -13.2 -19.9 -26.3 -34.9 -44.4 -49.3
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Note 1: The figures shown in these tables beyond 2020 are the product of a long-range forecasting model
maintained by the Office of Management and Budget. This model is separate from the models and
capabilities that produce detailed programmatic estimates in the Budget. It was designed to
produce long-range projections based on additional assumptions regarding growth in the economy,
the long-range evolution of specific programs, and the demographic and economic forces
affecting those programs. The model, its assumptions, and sensitivity testing of those
assumptions are presented in Chapter 5 of the Analytical Perspectives.
Note 2: The figures from the 2012 Budget include projected savings from the Affordable Care Act (ACA)
and the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA). The figures from the 2011 Budget includes projected
savings from the ACA but not the BCA.
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2013 , Analytical Perspectives,
page 51, Table 5-1;
Budget of the United States Government, FY 2012 , Analytical Perspectives,
page 47, Table 5-1;
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