PROJECTIONS OF THE DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC UNDER VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS:
1996-2050 (as a percentage of GDP)
Discretionary Outlays...
---------------------------------------
Stable Grow with Grow with Grow with Grow with
Permanent Ratio of Inflation Economy Inflation Economy
Balanced Deficit w/o w/o with with
Year Budget to GDP Feedback Feedback Feedback Feedback
---- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
1996 50 50 50 50 50 50
2000 46 48 48 48 48 48
2005 37 48 48 48 48 48
2010 30 46 50 50 50 51
2015 25 45 55 59 56 60
2020 21 45 65 75 68 79
2025 18 44 80 97 89 110
2030 15 44 100 125 121 159
2035 13 44 122 158 171 250
2040 12 44 145 193 266 n.c.
2045 10 44 169 230
2050 9 44 193 267 n.c. n.c.
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PROJECTIONS OF THE NIPA DEFICIT UNDER VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS:
1996-2050 (as a percentage of GDP)
Discretionary Outlays...
---------------------------------------
Stable Grow with Grow with Grow with Grow with
Permanent Ratio of Inflation Economy Inflation Economy
Balanced Deficit w/o w/o with with
Year Budget to GDP Feedback Feedback Feedback Feedback
---- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
1996 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
2000 0.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
2005 0.0 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
2010 0.0 1.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
2015 0.0 1.7 4.0 5.0 4.0 5.0
2020 0.0 1.7 5.0 7.0 6.0 7.0
2025 0.0 1.7 7.0 9.0 8.0 11.0
2030 0.0 1.7 8.0 11.0 12.0 17.0
2035 0.0 1.7 10.0 13.0 18.0 30.0
2040 0.0 1.7 11.0 15.0 31.0 n.c.
2045 0.0 1.7 12.0 16.5
2050 0.0 1.7 13.0 18.0 n.c. n.c.
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PROJECTIONS OF FEDERAL OUTLAYS AND RECEIPTS (using CBO base scenario with
discretionary spending growing with economy after 2007 and no economic feedbacks)
1996-2050 (as a percentage of GDP)
NIPA NIPA
Social Other Net Discret. Total Total
Year Security Medicare Medicaid Transfers Interest Outlays Outlays Receipts
---- -------- -------- -------- --------- -------- -------- ------- --------
1996 5 2 1 5 3 6 22 21
2000 5 3 1 5 3 5 22 20
2005 5 4 2 4 3 5 22 20
2010 5 4 2 4 3 5 23 20
2015 5 5 2 4 3 5 25 20
2020 6 6 2 4 4 5 27 20
2025 6 7 2 4 5 5 29 20
2030 6 7 3 4 6 5 31 20
2035 6 8 3 4 8 5 33 20
2040 6 8 3 4 9 5 35 20
2045 6 8 3 4 10.5 5 37 20
2050 6 8 3 4 12 5 39 20
1996-2050 (as a percentage of NIPA Total Receipts)
NIPA
Social Other Net Discret. Total
Year Security Medicare Medicaid Transfers Interest Outlays Outlays
---- -------- -------- -------- --------- -------- -------- -------
1996 24 10 5 24 14 29 105
2000 25 15 5 25 15 25 110
2005 25 20 10 20 15 20 110
2010 25 20 10 20 15 25 115
2015 25 25 10 20 15 30 125
2020 30 30 10 20 20 25 135
2025 30 35 10 20 25 25 145
2030 30 35 15 20 30 25 155
2035 30 40 15 20 40 20 165
2040 30 40 15 20 45 25 175
2045 30 40 15 20 53 28 185
2050 30 40 15 20 60 30 195
Source: Congressional Budget, Office, Long-Term Budgetary Pressures and
Policy Options, Tables 4, 5, and 7 (can be found online at
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=10&sequence=2)
Notes: Simulations without economic feedbacks assume that deficits do not
affect either interest rates or economic growth.
NIPA = national income and product accounts; n.c. = not computable
(debt would exceed levels that the economy could reasonably support).
Most figures for 2045 were calculated using interpolation.
Discretionary outlays in last table adjusted to add up to total.
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Notes on the Budget Assumptions in CBO's Long-Term Projections:
Social Security and Medicare: CBO based its projections on the forcasts
prepared by the OASDI and Medicare trustees. The CBO adjusted those
forcasts for differences between its economic assumptions and those
of the trustees. However, those differences are small when spending
is expressed as a percentage of GDP.
Medicaid: CBO assumed that spending would grow with the demands for
Medicaid as the population ages and with increased federal health care
expenditures per beneficiary.
Other Transfers, Grants, and Subsidies: CBO assumed that spending for
other domestic transfers would grow with demographic demands, inflation,
and labor productivity. These transfers include Food Stamps, Supplemental
Security Income, Unemployment Insurance, the earned income credit, and
veterans' benefits, among other programs. Other grants include outlays
for programs that replace the former Aid to Families with Dependent
Children and other federal programs that transfer funds to state and
local governments. Those grants, transfer payments to foreigners, and
other subsidies were assumed to grow with discretionary spending.
Receipts: CBO assumed that federal taxes would grow at roughly the same
rate as the economy, except for taxes collected on income from interest
on Treasury securities (which is part of the income tax base, not GDP).
