PROJECTED MEDICARE OUTLAYS (percentage of GDP)
2001 2003 2002 2004 2003 2005 2004 2006
Year TR^ Budget TR^ Budget TR^ Budget TR^ Budget
---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1995* 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.10
2000* 2.24 2.00 2.26 2.00 2.28 2.00 2.29 2.25~
2005 2.41 2.10 2.38 2.30~ 2.54 2.45~ 2.76 2.40
2010 2.57 2.30 2.54 2.60 2.69 2.90 3.66 2.85~
2015 2.89 2.60~ 2.59 3.00~ 3.04 3.40~ 4.24 3.30
2020 3.34 2.90 2.86 3.40 3.53 3.90 5.08 3.95~
2025 3.90 3.40~ 3.33 4.00~ 4.13 4.90~ 6.04 4.60
2030 4.51 3.90 3.89 4.60 4.75 5.90 6.95 5.30~
2035 5.03 4.35~ 4.48 5.05~ 5.30 6.65~ 7.75 6.00
2040 5.41 4.80 5.00 5.50 5.74 7.40 8.41 6.50~
2045 5.72 5.15~ 5.38 5.88~ 6.10 7.95~ 9.00 7.00
2050 6.01 5.50 5.69 6.25~ 6.45 8.50~ 9.56 7.45~
2055 6.36 5.94~ 5.97 6.63~ 6.87 9.05~ 10.16 7.90
2060 6.83 6.38~ 6.31 7.00 7.37 9.60 10.89 8.50~
2065 7.38 6.82~ 6.76 7.58~ 7.91 10.33~ 11.68 9.10
2070 7.94 7.26~ 7.29 8.15~ 8.49 11.05~ 12.51 9.75~
2075 8.49 7.70 7.87 8.73~ 9.05 11.78~ 13.34 10.40
2080 8.43 9.30 12.50 13.85
* actual values
~ estimated via interpolation
^ TR = Trustees Report
Source: 2001 Trustees Report of the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, Table III.B1.;
2002 Trustees Report of the HI and SMI Trust Funds, Table II.A3.;
2003 Trustees Report of the HI and SMI Trust Funds, Table II.A3.;
2004 Trustees Report of the HI and SMI Trust Funds, Table II.A2.;
U.S. Budget, FY 2003, Analytical Perspectives, Table 3–2;
U.S. Budget, FY 2004, Analytical Perspectives, Table 3–2;
U.S. Budget, FY 2006, Analytical Perspectives, Table 12–2;
U.S. Budget, FY 2006, Analytical Perspectives, Table 13–2
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According to text in the Analytical Perspectives, the projections for
Medicare in the 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 Budgets are based on the
actuarial projections in the 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 Medicare
Trustees Reports, respectively. Given this and the above graph and
table, the following points are evident:
1) Although the Budget projections are based on the Trustee Report
projections, they are never identical. There appears to be some
adjustment being made in every case.
2) The projections of Medicare outlays in the 2003 Budget are slightly
lower than the 2001 Trustees Report on which they are based. On
the other hand, the projections in the 2004 Budget are slightly
higher than the 2002 Trustees Report on which they are based. In
2075, the differences are 0.79 and 0.86 percent of GDP, respectively.
3) The projections in the 2005 Budget are much higher than the 2003
Trustees Report on which they are based. In 2075, the difference
is 2.73 percent of GDP. This is explained by accompanying text
that states that the figures are "adjusted for the effects of the
Medicare prescription drug and modernization bill enacted in
December 2003".
4) The projections in the 2006 Budget are much lower than the 2004
Trustees Report on which they are based and are a fair amount lower
than the previous budget's projections. In 2075, the differences
are 2.94 and 1.38 percent of GDP, respectively. I could not find
an explanation for this difference in the accompanying text.
