Comparing the 2024 Attorney General and Presidential Races by County and Precinct
According to CNN, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by 183,048 votes in the 2024 Presidential race in North Carolina. However, it states that Democrat Jeff Jackson defeated Republican Dan Bishop by 159,549 votes in the 2024 Attorney General race in North Carolina. The following graph shows the shift in the margin vote share from the Attorney General race to the Presidential race by county. The positive direction is more Democratic along both axes in this graph. Hence, every county had higher vote margins for Trump than for Bishop.
The following graph shows the same shift but by precinct instead of county. By eye, it appears that the precincts shifted Republican on average from an average of about 8 percent for the solid Republican precincts and an average of about 8 percent for the least solid Democrat precincts on the left to almost no shift for the most solid Democrat precincts on the right side of the graph.
In the same way, it's possible to compare the 2020 and 2024 presidential races by county and precinct. As mentioned above, CNN shows Republican Donald Trump defeating Democrat Kamala Harris by 183,048 votes in the 2024 Presidential race in North Carolina. However, CNN shows Trump defeating Democrat Joe Biden by a much smaller 74,483 votes in the 2020 Presidential race in North Carolina. The following graph shows the shift in the margin vote share from the Presidential race in 2020 to the Presidential race in 2024 by county. The positive direction is more Democratic along both axes in this graph. Hence, all but 15 of North Carolina's 100 counties had higher vote margins for Biden in 2020 than for Harris in 2024.
The following graph shows the same shift but by precinct instead of county. By eye, it appears that a number of solid Republican precincts did vote more Democrat in 2024. However, it's difficult to know for sure since the graph shows a number of precincts named "absentee" voting more Republican and this could be from more Republicans voting absentee in some of those precincts that appear to have shifted Democrat. It may be better to look at the shifts by county.
The following 9 graphs show the shift in the margin vote share from the Presidential race in 2020 to the Presidential race in 2024 in the 9 most populous North Carolina counties according to this page showing North Carolina counties by population in 2025.
The first 6 counties seem to show a pattern by which the solid Republican precincts shifted little on average (Forsyth and Cumberland) or Democrat on average (the other 4). The least solid Democrat precincts then seemed to shift about the same amount but that shift became increasingly Republican on average as the precinct became more solidly Democrat. The odd thing is that there appears to be something of a sharp turn toward an increasing Republican shift starting right at the solid Democrat precincts (or sometimes the toss-up precincts). It would seem easier to explain an increasing Republican shift from left to right as there are more Democrat voters to shift. But it's hard to think of any reason that the shift would occur right at the point that the precinct become Democrat (or toss-ups).
The following 9 graphs show the shift in the next 9 most populous North Carolina counties:
Here the pattern seems somewhat discernible in New Hanover, Alamance, Pitt, Davidson, and Catawba Counties. It does not appear discernible in the other counties, perhaps chiefly due to the fact that they contain few solid Democrat precincts.
The following 9 graphs show the shift in the next 9 most populous North Carolina counties:
Here the pattern does not seem discernible in any of the counties except possibly Moore. Again this may be chiefly due to the fact that most contain few solid Democrat precincts.
In summary, following are the 12 North Carolina counties where the pattern described in the prior section seems somewhat discernible (though Buncombe County may be questionable):
This pattern is reminiscent of a pattern seen in comparing the 2016 and 2020 presidential races in Texas as seen in the following 9 graphs from this page.
The above 9 counties consist of the 8 southernmost counties in Texas, plus Maverick County. The pattern differs a little bit from the pattern seen in North Carolina in that the Texas counties contain few Republican precincts. However, the pattern can also be seen in the following graph of the shift in Texas counties from that page.
As mentioned in the prior section, the odd thing is that there appears to be something of a sharp turn toward an increasing Republican shift starting right at the solid Democrat precincts (or the toss-up precincts). It would seem easier to explain an increasing Republican shift from left to right as there are more Democrat voters to shift. But it's hard to think of any reason that the shift would occur right at the point that the precinct become Democrat (or toss-ups). It would seem that this pattern very much merits futher investigation.
North Carolina Historical Election Results Data,
Comparing the 2020 and 2024 Presidential Races by County and Precinct
Comparing the 2020 and 2024 Presidential Races by Precinct in the Most Populous Counties
Comparing the Pattern seen in North Carolina in 2024 with the Pattern seen in Texas in 2020
Data Sources
2024 U.S. Election