On June 12, 2019, Fortune Magazine posted an article titled The Unemployment Rate for U.S. Tech Workers Just Hit the Lowest Number Ever Recorded. That article states:
According to CompTIA, the unemployment rate for America's technology workers hit 1.3 percent in May. It's come close to touching these lows before, most recently in March, 2018 and again in April 2007, a year before the global financial crisis wreaked havoc on markets. At those moments, the rate reached 1.4 percent.
In fact, it is possible to check these numbers in the Shiny application at https://econdata.shinyapps.io/cps03m/. Going to the URL will display the following screen:
A line graph of this data can be seen by clicking on the Plot tab and ensuring that "Plot Type" (near the bottom of the left tab) is set to "Line Graph". In order to focus just on the unemployment rate, "X Min" and "X Max" are to 2 by default. This works because EMPSTAT is a factor variable in which 2 specifies "Unemployed". As a result, the following plot is displayed:
The data displayed comes from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) and can be obtained by going to https://cps.ipums.org/cps/, clicking "LOG IN" (signing up first, if necessary), and requesting a specific data extract. For the Shiny application, a data extract of the BASIC MONTHLY data was requested for each year from 2003 to 2020 for the following variables:
Variable Variable Label Typ Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan
18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
YEAR Survey year [preselected].................. H X X X X X X X X X X X X
SERIAL Household serial number [preselected]...... H X X X X X X X X X X X X
MONTH Month [preselected]........................ H X X X X X X X X X X X X
HWTFINL Household weight, Basic Monthly [preselect] H X X X X X X X X X X X X
CPSID CPSID, household record [preselected]...... H X X X X X X X X X X X X
ASECFLAG Flag for ASEC [preselected]................ H . . . . . . . . . X . .
PERNUM Person number in sample unit [preselected]. P X X X X X X X X X X X X
WTFINL Final Basic Weight [preselected]........... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
CPSIDP CPSID, person record [preselected]......... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
STATEFIP State (FIPS code).......................... H X X X X X X X X X X X X
METAREA Metropolitan area.......................... H X X X X X X X X X X X X
COUNTY FIPS county code........................... H X X X X X X X X X X X X
AGE Age........................................ P X X X X X X X X X X X X
SEX Sex........................................ P X X X X X X X X X X X X
RACE Race....................................... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
BPL Birthplace................................. P X X X X X X X X X X X X
YRIMMIG Year of immigration........................ P X X X X X X X X X X X X
CITIZEN Citizenship status......................... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
HISPAN Hispanic origin............................ P X X X X X X X X X X X X
EMPSTAT Employment status.......................... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
OCC Occupation................................. P X X X X X X X X X X X X
OCC1990 Occupation, 1990 basis..................... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
CLASSWKR Class of worker............................ P X X X X X X X X X X X X
UHRSWORKT Hours usually worked per week at all jobs.. P X X X X X X X X X X X X
AHRSWORKT Hours worked last week..................... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
DURUNEMP Continuous weeks unemployed................ P X X X X X X X X X X X X
WHYUNEMP Reason for unemployment.................... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
WHYPTLWK Reason for working part time last week..... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
WNLOOK Reason not looking for work last 4 weeks... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
WKSTAT Full or part time status................... P X X X X X X X X X X X X
EDUC Educational attainment recode.............. P X X X X X X X X X X X X
As can be seen in the above screenshots, the unemployment rate for Computer and Mathematical Occupations in May matches the "unemployment rate for America's technology workers" given in the article. However, the table and graph show that there is a fair amount of noise in the data as it was 2.5 percent in the prior month and the unemployment rate has bounced between these two numbers in 2019. In any event, it has now more than tripled to 4.3 after the first full month of the COVID-19 economic shutdown.
Following are the graph and numbers shown in the above screenshots. The graph has been narrowed by narrowing the browser window and the labeling on the x-axis has been changed to every 3 months by changing X Step to 3. In addition, the y-scale has been changed by setting Y Min, Y Max, and Y Step to 0, 5, and 1, respectively.
Computer and Mathematical Occupations (1000-1299): 2019-2020, grouped by EMPSTAT (percent) Year_Mo Count Employed Unemployed 1 2019-01 5,228,613 97.7 2.3 2 2019-02 5,502,596 97.7 2.3 3 2019-03 5,286,358 98.3 1.7 4 2019-04 5,276,328 97.5 2.5 5 2019-05 5,315,334 98.7 1.3 6 2019-06 5,408,982 98.7 1.3 7 2019-07 5,557,570 98.7 1.3 8 2019-08 5,630,812 98.4 1.6 9 2019-09 5,476,433 97.7 2.3 10 2019-10 5,333,382 97.9 2.1 11 2019-11 5,264,513 97.7 2.3 12 2019-12 5,306,613 97.7 2.3 13 2020-01 5,693,551 97.0 3.0 14 2020-02 5,724,004 97.6 2.4 15 2020-03 5,672,254 97.5 2.5 16 2020-04 5,848,301 95.7 4.3 URL parameters (short)= ?minyear=2019&maxyear=2020&STATE=&geo=NATION&occ=Computer%20and%20Mathematical%20Occupations%20(1000-1299)&empstat=In%20labor%20force&group=EMPSTAT&sortn=2&sortdir=Ascending&ymax=3&color=Set1&geomtype=Line%20GraphFollowing are the graph and numbers for Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations. As can be seen, unemployment shot up to 6.8 percent in April for these occupations.
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (3000-3599): 2019-2020, grouped by EMPSTAT (percent) Year_Mo Count Employed Unemployed 1 2019-01 9,716,928 97.9 2.1 2 2019-02 9,695,656 98.1 1.9 3 2019-03 9,483,037 98.5 1.5 4 2019-04 9,512,312 98.8 1.2 5 2019-05 9,531,083 98.8 1.2 6 2019-06 9,620,787 98.5 1.5 7 2019-07 9,698,598 98.5 1.5 8 2019-08 9,687,416 98.7 1.3 9 2019-09 9,797,626 98.7 1.3 10 2019-10 9,940,185 98.9 1.1 11 2019-11 10,185,009 98.7 1.3 12 2019-12 10,248,156 99.0 1.0 13 2020-01 9,846,093 98.6 1.4 14 2020-02 9,973,039 98.6 1.4 15 2020-03 9,866,440 98.4 1.6 16 2020-04 9,568,774 93.2 6.8 URL parameters (short)= ?minyear=2019&maxyear=2020&STATE=&geo=NATION&occ=Healthcare%20Practitioners%20and%20Technical%20Occupations%20(3000-3599)&empstat=In%20labor%20force&group=EMPSTAT&sortn=2&sortdir=Ascending&ymax=3&color=Set1&geomtype=Line%20GraphFollowing are the graph and numbers for Healthcare Support Occupations. As can be seen, unemployment shot up to an even higher 12.3 percent in April for these occupations.
Healthcare Support Occupations (3600-3699): 2019-2020, grouped by EMPSTAT (percent) Year_Mo Count Employed Unemployed 1 2019-01 3,738,726 96.8 3.2 2 2019-02 3,668,710 97.4 2.6 3 2019-03 3,639,606 96.9 3.1 4 2019-04 3,674,815 97.2 2.8 5 2019-05 3,882,564 96.7 3.3 6 2019-06 4,009,715 97.1 2.9 7 2019-07 3,910,944 97.1 2.9 8 2019-08 3,888,690 96.2 3.8 9 2019-09 3,889,002 97.1 2.9 10 2019-10 3,843,072 96.9 3.1 11 2019-11 3,918,312 96.9 3.1 12 2019-12 3,852,033 96.2 3.8 13 2020-01 5,197,351 96.6 3.4 14 2020-02 5,162,305 97.3 2.7 15 2020-03 5,077,933 97.8 2.2 16 2020-04 4,835,829 87.7 12.3 URL parameters (short)= ?minyear=2019&maxyear=2020&STATE=&geo=NATION&occ=Healthcare%20Support%20Occupations%20(3600-3699)&empstat=In%20labor%20force&group=EMPSTAT&sortn=2&sortdir=Ascending&ymax=3&color=Set1&geomtype=Line%20GraphMuch of the rise in the unemployment of Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations and Healthcare Support Occupations may have been due to a reported drop in elective medical procedures and the hesitancy of some people to go to the hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on occupations most involved in COVID-19 treatment, following are the graph and numbers for Physicians and surgeons. As can be seen, unemployment rose just slightly, up to 2.2 percent in March but moderating a bit to 1.6 percent in April.
Physicians and surgeons (3060-3109): 2019-2020, grouped by EMPSTAT (percent) Year_Mo Count Employed Unemployed 1 2019-01 1,136,184.0 98.9 1.1 2 2019-02 1,058,024.3 99.9 0.1 3 2019-03 1,047,743.7 99.3 0.7 4 2019-04 1,077,498.8 100.0 0.0 5 2019-05 1,082,870.9 99.9 0.1 6 2019-06 1,013,312.8 99.9 0.1 7 2019-07 997,245.8 99.5 0.5 8 2019-08 937,640.8 99.6 0.4 9 2019-09 1,093,179.8 99.6 0.4 10 2019-10 1,200,662.6 100.0 0.0 11 2019-11 1,269,243.5 99.8 0.2 12 2019-12 1,339,848.6 99.6 0.4 13 2020-01 612,214.8 98.9 1.1 14 2020-02 633,129.3 99.4 0.6 15 2020-03 635,852.8 97.8 2.2 16 2020-04 565,251.9 98.4 1.6 URL parameters (short)= ?minyear=2019&maxyear=2020&STATE=&geo=NATION&occ=Physicians%20and%20surgeons%20(3060-3109)&empstat=In%20labor%20force&group=EMPSTAT&sortn=2&sortdir=Ascending&ymax=3&color=Set1&geomtype=Line%20GraphFollowing are the graph and numbers for Registered nurses. As can be seen, unemployment more than tripled to 4.4 percent in April for registered nurses.
Registered nurses (3255): 2019-2020, grouped by EMPSTAT (percent) Year_Mo Count Employed Unemployed 1 2019-01 3,270,198 98.3 1.7 2 2019-02 3,286,610 98.0 2.0 3 2019-03 3,207,111 98.3 1.7 4 2019-04 3,229,581 98.9 1.1 5 2019-05 3,204,524 98.6 1.4 6 2019-06 3,313,793 98.8 1.2 7 2019-07 3,420,072 99.2 0.8 8 2019-08 3,343,853 99.0 1.0 9 2019-09 3,141,691 98.6 1.4 10 2019-10 3,329,873 99.0 1.0 11 2019-11 3,293,259 98.9 1.1 12 2019-12 3,352,799 98.8 1.2 13 2020-01 3,256,131 98.6 1.4 14 2020-02 3,212,302 98.9 1.1 15 2020-03 3,135,398 98.9 1.1 16 2020-04 3,205,211 95.6 4.4 URL parameters (short)= ?minyear=2019&maxyear=2020&STATE=&geo=NATION&occ=Registered%20nurses%20(3255)&empstat=In%20labor%20force&group=EMPSTAT&sortn=2&sortdir=Ascending&ymax=3&color=Set1&geomtype=Line%20GraphAccording to Table 8B on page 13 of "Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers, Fiscal Year 2019 Annual Report to Congress", about two-thirds of H-1B petitions in 2018 and 2019 were for computer-related jobs. As shown above, the unemployment rate for Computer and Mathematical Occupations rose to 4.3 percent in April. The second largest group listed in Table 8B is Occupations in Architecture, Engineering, and Surveying at about 10 percent of all petitions. Following are the graph and numbers for Architecture and Engineering Occupations. As can be seen, unemployment more than doubled tp 5.8 percent in April.
Architecture and Engineering Occupations (1300-1599): 2019-2020, grouped by EMPSTAT (percent) Year_Mo Count Employed Unemployed 1 2019-01 3,528,294 96.6 3.4 2 2019-02 3,418,770 98.6 1.4 3 2019-03 3,495,458 98.5 1.5 4 2019-04 3,310,844 98.2 1.8 5 2019-05 3,363,450 97.8 2.2 6 2019-06 3,304,687 98.6 1.4 7 2019-07 3,261,220 99.0 1.0 8 2019-08 3,158,600 99.3 0.7 9 2019-09 3,263,794 98.8 1.2 10 2019-10 3,231,854 97.8 2.2 11 2019-11 3,251,366 98.3 1.7 12 2019-12 3,245,272 99.0 1.0 13 2020-01 3,233,359 98.0 2.0 14 2020-02 3,309,736 98.6 1.4 15 2020-03 3,322,289 97.4 2.6 16 2020-04 3,187,741 94.2 5.8 URL parameters (short)= ?minyear=2019&maxyear=2020&STATE=&geo=NATION&occ=Architecture%20and%20Engineering%20Occupations%20(1300-1599)&empstat=In%20labor%20force&group=EMPSTAT&sortn=2&sortdir=Ascending&color=Set1&geomtype=Line%20GraphThe above data would suggest that most of the jobs for which H-1B visas are targeted are in occupations in which unemployment has increased sharply due to COVID-19. It would therefore seem reasonable to severely limit any new petitions, at least until this situation has reversed.