Ray Lutz's Look at Turnout in Clark County
On January 6, 2025, Ray Lutz, founder of Citizens Oversight, posted a Substack article titled "Convincing evidence of likely manipulation of 2024 Presidential votes in Nevada". Following is the first paragraph:
We've been playing around with data from the state of Nevada in an effort to find any strong evidence that the data looks fishy. To refresh your memory, in Nevada, we had fairly anomalous results, since the state went to the D-Party candidate over Trump in 2016 and 2020. And all of a sudden, in this election, it is flipped, with Trump winning the state.
Further on, he posts the following graph, which his article explains.
I've been able to replicate the basics of the graph below:
Regarding his graph, Ray states the following:
What is absolutely stunning about this plot is the fact that in strong D-party precincts, turnout percentages consistently plateau below 45%, suggesting a systematic irregularity.
It seems there is an artificial limit to the turnout % allowed in those precincts, to less than 45%. The limit is so stark, it is chilling.
The data you see here is only for Clark County, which is a huge part of Nevada (around 66% of the state), and strongly D-leaning. Harris did win in this county. But her win here was not enough to offset the other third of the votes in the state, given this artificial limit.
Following are the data sources that were used create the replicate graph:
Comparing the 2024 Senate and Presidential Races in Clark County
According to Wikipedia, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by 46,008 votes in the 2024 Presidential race in Nevada. However, according to Wikipedia, Democrat Jacky Rosen defeated Republican Sam Brown by 24,059 votes in the 2024 Senate race in Nevada. The following graph shows the shift in the margin vote share from the Senate race to the Presidential race in Clark County.
The positive direction is more Democratic along both axes in the above graph. Hence, all of the precincts below the x-axis, including the great majority of those in Clark County, had higher vote margins for Trump than for Brown. By eye, it appears that the average shift in vote margin for Trump was about 5 percent.
In the same way, it's possible to compare the 2020 and 2024 presidential races in Clark County. As mentioned above, Wikipedia shows Republican Donald Trump defeating Democrat Kamala Harris by 46,008 votes in the 2024 Presidential race in Nevada. However, Wikipedia shows Democrat Joe Biden defeating Republican Donald Trump by 33,596 votes in the 2020 Presidential race in Nevada. The following graph shows the shift in the margin vote share from the Presidential race in 2020 to the Presidential race in 2024 in Clark County.
The positive direction is more Democratic along both axes in the above graph. By eye, it appears that the solid Republican precincts did not shift much on average, being dispersed on both sides of the x-axis. However, the solid Democrat precincts can be seen to have shifted significantly Republican on average, being mostly below the x-axis.
The following graph shows the same shift but without the precinct labels.
Without the labels, it is even clearer that the great majority of the solid Democrat precincts shifted Republican from 2020 to 2024. This pattern was seen in many counties in other states such as in Wisconsin.
As previously mentioned, the Cast Vote Record for the November 5, 2024 election in Clark County, Nevada can be found posted on the Clark County, Nevada web site. There is a post on Reddit titled "Leaked Ballot-level Data Exposes Alarming Evidence of Vote Switching Fraud in Clark County, Nevada!" that generates several plots using this data. Following are the first 3 plots as replicated by an R Shiny application using the same data. Below is the first plot looking at Mail In ballots and the description given in the Reddit article:
In Figure 1, you can see that 443,823 mail-in votes were processed across just six tabulators. With so few tabulators, the results are averaged, and Kamala won with 61.4% against Trump's 36.4%. This data accounts for 47.7% of the population's votes.
Below is the second plot looking at Election Day ballots and the description given in the Reddit article:
In Figure 2, you'll see Election Day results from 3,116 tabulators. Here, the distribution is normal, with plenty of random variation expected from a large population.
Below is the third plot looking at Early Vote ballots and the description given in the Reddit article:
Figure 3 shows 964 tabulators used to process early voting. What stands out immediately is the severe clustering and absence of middle-range percentages, which points to abnormal vote switching. This confirms the first hypothesis that votes were manipulated, with Trump's numbers artificially inflated at the expense of Kamala and "Other" candidates. The tabulator IDs confirm the manipulation, as they follow a specific clustering pattern. Two anomalies stand out: One where Trump's numbers spiked in tabulators with smaller volumes (IDs 10013 to 10273) and another where Kamala's numbers were disproportionately high in tabulators with lower volumes (IDs 106033 to 106223). The cause of these anomalies remains unclear, but it's possible that the manipulation was more aggressive in a small and applied in reverse in others.
The references to tabulator IDs can be better seen in the plot below which shows the actual tabulator IDs rather than the indices starting from 1:
The Reddit article mentions an "absence of middle-range percentages, which points to abnormal vote switching". In fact, there appears to be an overabundance of certain percentages, especially 40 and 60 percent. The following plot focuses on the first 200 Early Voting tabulators:
As can be seen, tabulators 100,000 to just below 100,300 seem clustered in the 20 and 80 percent areas (Dem/Rep). The tabulators from there to just below 100,700 are clustered in the 40 and 60 percent areas (Dem/Rep), then swap parties to cluster in the 60 and 40 percent areas (Dem/Rep) up to 100,900, and then swap parties back to the 40 and 60 percent areas up to tabulator 101,600. From there to just below tabulator 102,000, they seem to cluster around the 55 and 45 percent areas (Dem/Rep).
The following plot shows another long stretch that seems to cluster in the 40 and 60 percent areas (Dem/Rep) but sometimes swapping parties to the 60 and 40 percent areas such as from tabulator 107,700 to just below 108,000.
This clustering in the 40 and 60 percent areas, especially with the occassional swapping of parties, seems that it could be indicative of some sort of manipulation.
The plot below groups all votes by precinct and it appears that, as a whole, the precincts in the 4000's and 5000's lean Democrat.
The plot below groups election day votes by precinct and it appears that, once again, the precincts in the 4000's and 5000's lean Democrat. The other precincts appear to lean Republican in the election day vote.
The plot below groups the early vote by precinct and it appears that, in the early vote, only the precincts in the 4000's lean Democrat. The other precincts appear to lean Republican in the early vote. It's unclear why the precincts in the 5000's seem to lean Democrat in the election day vote but lean Republican in the early vote.
Comparing the 2020 and 2024 Presidential Races in Clark County
Looking at the Cast Vote Record for the 2024 Presidential Race in Clark County by Tabulator
Looking at the Cast Vote Record for the 2024 Presidential Race in Clark County by Precinct
2024 U.S. Election