Open Letter Regarding Raising of the H-1B Cap

To Whom It May Concern:

I am writing this letter in response to recent discussions about the government increasing the H-1B visa cap, either directly or indirectly. I have worked in Silicon Valley as a software developer since 1980. In that time, I have seen huge changes in the industry. When I started, it seemed that anyone with a strong technical background could get a job in the industry. The only question was how good a job. Now, I know more and more such people who cannot find jobs. However, I hear our industry leaders complain about a "skills gap" and a desperate need for more H-1B visa workers. This has prompted me to study the issue and post data (mostly government data) on the issue at http://econdataus.com/h1binfo.htm. Following are some of the items that I've found:

1) Non-citizens (a proxy for H-1B visa workers) made up nearly half of Software Developers, Applications and Systems Software workers in Silicon Valley in 2012. This is according to Census numbers posted at http://econdataus.com/svworkers.html. Hence, many are being hired for positions requiring common computer skills, not unique skills requiring the "best and the brightest".

2) The largest users of H-1B visa users are outsourcing firms. As explained in the article at http://www.ibtimes.com/five-companies-responsible..., such firms hire lower educated workers than the large tech companies and far fewer of them earn green cards (between zero and 12 percent depending on the firm).

3) Ageism is likely playing a role. The third graph and set of tables at http://econdataus.com/h1binfo.htm show that over 80 percent of H-1B visa workers are under 35 when they are initially hired.

4) There is much disagreement about the so-called "skills gap". I've posted links to much of the commentary at http://econdataus.com/skillsgap.html. One is a recent editorial by Paul Krugman in the New York Times. The last link on that page is to an article about ageism in tech.

There are a number of other items that I haven't had a chance to investigate including some listed in an article at http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/arnold-ahlert/the-tech-industrys-immigration-lies/. Following are some of those:

5) "Most studies report that real wages in many—but not all—science and engineering occupations have been flat or slow-growing, and unemployment as high or higher than in many comparably-skilled occupations." This is not what one would expect if there were a genuine shortage of high-skill workers.

6) "Surprisingly high unemployment rates prevail for recent graduates even in fields with alleged serious ‘shortages’ such as engineering (7.0 percent), computer science (7.8 percent) and information systems (11.7 percent)."

7) "Americans colleges already graduate 50 percent more computer science majors than are finding jobs in IT."

These last two items are especially disturbing. I am close enough to retirement that I should be able to get by (though many older programmers may not). But it seems especially wrong to undercut workers who are just starting out. It may be the case that truly unique talents had a multiplying effect on jobs. But I don't understand how anyone could claim that an H-1B visa worker brought in to do mid-level programming tasks has a multiplying effect, especially if they are doing a job for which an American graduate is qualified or could be easily trained. At one time, I advised any young person with technical skill to go into programming. Now, I advise them to hedge their bets with finance, economics, or defense (where a clearance is required). And once they are working, I advise them to be careful not to document their knowledge beyond what is required. In that sense, I think that the high H-1B inflow and outsourcing is having a chilling effect on the work environment.

From what I know, the current law does not attempt to insure that H-1B visa workers are not hired for jobs for which qualified Americans are available (it does so only for PERM applicants). From what I know, however, this is easily circumvented. One possible solution might be to put a limit on the percentage of each job category for which an H-1B visa worker can be hired. It's hard to believe that any large company needs to have over half of any broad job category be H-1B visa workers. In that case, I suspect that they are just seeking cheap labor that is easier to exploit. If so, the current law is basically rewarding dishonest behavior and possibly giving those companies an advantage over honest companies. But if there were a limit on the percentage of H-1B workers that they could hire, this behavior would be limited and the companies would be more likely to use their allotment for jobs in which H-1B workers are truly needed. In any event, the laws need to be modified to curb abuse, especially of lower-skilled and older American IT workers.

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