On December 26, 2016, economist George Borjas posted an article on his blog titled Where Did 2.5 Million Native Working Men Go?. It includes a graph showing a substantial rise in the number of prime-age native men who do not work at all during an entire calendar year. It also includes the simple Stata code which was used to generate the graph using CPS (Consumer Population Survey) data. Stata is a statistical language widely used in academia. The following describes how to replicate the data and graph in the statistical language R, another widely used statistical language which has the advantage of being freely available under the GNU General Public License. It has been updated to include CPS data through 2018.
Following are instructions for extracting the required data from IPUMS, the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series:
Variable Variable Label Type 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95 94 --------- ------------------------------------------ ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- YEAR Survey year [preselected] H X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X SERIAL Household serial number [preselected] H X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X MONTH Month [preselected] H X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X CPSID CPSID, household record [preselected] H X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X ASECFLAG Flag for ASEC [preselected] H X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X HFLAG Flag for the 3/8 file 2014 [preselected] H . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ASECWTH Annual Social & Econ Suppl Household weight* H X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X PERNUM Person number in sample unit [preselected] P X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X CPSIDP CPSID, person record [preselected] P X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X ASECWT Annual Social and Economic Supplement Weight* P X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X STATEFIP State (FIPS code) H X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X METFIPS Metropolitan area FIPS code H X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X AGE Age P X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X SEX Sex P X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X CITIZEN Citizenship status P X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X EMPSTAT Employment status P X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X EDUC Educational attainment recode P X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X WKSWORK1 Weeks worked last year P X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X UHRSWORKLY Usual hours worked per week (last yr) P X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X * [preselected]
> source("nowork18ed.R")
[1] "READING cps18.csv"
[1] "4634775 Initial number of records"
[1] "4634775 1994 to present"
[1] "4634775 the United States"
[1] "1943684 AGE 25 to 54"
[1] "931000 MEN"
[1] "931000 SUPPLEMENT WEIGHT >= 0"
YEAR IMMIGRANT NATIVE
1 1994 11.07 8.20
2 1995 10.37 7.92
3 1996 9.71 8.16
4 1997 9.37 7.71
5 1998 8.14 7.48
6 1999 7.84 7.82
7 2000 7.47 7.64
8 2001 8.11 7.74
9 2002 8.00 8.58
10 2003 9.10 9.23
11 2004 9.30 10.36
12 2005 8.33 10.40
13 2006 7.73 10.08
14 2007 7.69 9.89
15 2008 8.14 10.35
16 2009 8.03 11.26
17 2010 10.68 13.11
18 2011 11.27 14.40
19 2012 10.50 14.69
20 2013 9.76 14.04
21 2014 8.53 14.30
22 2015 9.76 13.72
23 2016 9.33 12.99
24 2017 8.35 12.82
25 2018 9.37 12.38
Press enter to continue, escape to exit
Below is George Borjas' graph from his post, followed by the first graph generated by the program. As can be seen, the program does appear to replicate the numbers in Borjas' graph exactly except that it extends to 2018. Also, the graphs show an interesting pattern. For native men, the percentage not working for the entire year was about 8 percent from 1994 to 2001. Then, following the collapse of the tech bubble, the percentage increased to about 10 percent in 2004 to 2007. Then, following the financial crisis, the percentage skyrocketed to nearly 15 pecent in 2012 but fell back to about 13 percent by 2016 and 12.4 percent by 2018.
The percentages for immigrant men have been somewhat more steady. They fell from about 11 percent in 1994 to about 8 percent in 1998 and continued there through 2002. They did rise briefly to about 9 percent in 2003 and 2004 but fell back to about 8 percent from 2005 through 2009. Following the financial crisis, they rose to over 11 percent in 2011 but have fallen back to about 9 percent since then.
The rest of the program divides this group of men aged 25-54 into 6 groups according to their educations, specifically the highest degree that they received. The six groups are as follows:
The first graph shows the percentages for all of the native subgroups. Most of these subgroups seem to follow a pattern very similar to the entire native group except at different levels. There is a pre-tech-crash level that goes from 1994 to 2001, a post-tech-crash level that goes from about 2004 to 2007 or 2008, a post-financial crisis peak that is reached in 2012 or 2013, followed by a partial recovery. As can be seen, the percentages are by far the highest for native men without a high school diploma and generally get lower and lower with each higher level of degree. Interestingly, this difference by education level is much less the case for immigrant men, shown in the second graph above. Some of this may be due to the greater volatility of the percentages, likely due to the smaller sample sizes for immigrants. Still, their percentages range only up to about 14 percent whereas the native percentages range up to about 40 percent. Again, this difference is mainly due to high percentages for native men without a high school diploma and, since about 2004, native men with a high school diploma.
Someone suggested to me that many of the prime-age men who are not working may be on disability. To check this, I looked at the variable EMPSTAT whose codes are given at this link. As can be seen, this variable indicates those persons who are not in the labor force for the three reasons of 1) unable to work, 2) retired, and 3) other. The R program at http://econdataus.com/nowork18ed.R was modified to filter out men who were unable to work or retired, creating the program at http://econdataus.com/nowork1edaw.R. These categories are in the CPS data only from 1995 on so the year 1994 was also dropped from the data. Following is the start of the resulting output from if this new program is placed in the same directory as cps18.csv and run:
Below are the three graphs generated by the prior program followed by the corresponding three graphs from this new program. The first graph in the first row replicates George Borjas' graph and the first graph in the second row is the first graph generated by this modified program. As can be seen, omitting men who are unable to work or are retired greatly lowers the percentage of non-working prime-age men. In addition, it changes the relationship between non-working native and immigrant men. When such groups are included, the percentages of non-working native men has been greater than non-working immigrants since 2004. When they are excluded, however, the percentages of non-working native men are lower than for non-working immigrants through 2009 and have been fairly close to the same since then.
The second and third graphs in each row show the percentages for all of the native and immigrant subgroups using the old and new programs. For the second graph in each row, the percentages are by far the highest for native men without a high school diploma and generally get lower and lower with each higher level of degree. The chief difference is just that the levels are all lower in the second row. For the third graph in each row, there appears to be much less of a difference by education level. Once again, however, the levels appear to be somewhat lower in the second row.
Following are the numbers in the above graphs that are output by the programs:
The prior program can be modified to look at just those non-working prime-age men who are disabled or retired. Following are the resulting graphs and numbers:
The first graph in the second row of graphs above show that the percentage of prime-age native men who say they are retired rose from about 0.4 to just over 1 percent. For prime-age immigrant who are retired, the increase is much less, if any. The second graph in the second row shows that the percentage of prime-age native men who are retiring is rising for all education levels. This also seems somewhat surprising. It's unclear to what degree this is a choice or many be due to a lack of attractive jobs.
In summary, the 2.5 million number in George Borjas' question of "Where Did 2.5 Million Native Working Men Go?" is based on a rise of 5 percent, from 8 percent to 13 percent, in a population of about 50 million prime-age native men. Excluding those men who are unable to work (presumedly on disability) or retired causes the rise to be 3 percent, from 4 to 7 percent. Three percent of 50 million is 1.5 million. Hence, it would seem that about a million of the 2.5 million prime-age native men became disabled or retired (chiefly the former) and the other 1.5 million includes the unemployed and those who disappeared from the labor force with the reason of "other". I would presume that this latter group is chiefly men who were unable to find work but dropped off the unemployment rolls, having used up all of their allowed unemployment. However, it would seem possible that some of those who are disabled or have retired have also been affected by a lack of jobs that they can or wish to work at. This would all seem to merit concern and further study.
A Look At Non-working Prime-age Men Who Are Not Disabled or Retired
> source('~/a.r/cps/nowork18edaw.R')
[1] "READING cps18.csv"
[1] "4634775 Initial number of records"
[1] "4634775 1995 to present"
[1] "4483832 the United States"
[1] "1879261 AGE 25 to 54"
[1] "900018 MEN"
[1] "900018 SUPPLEMENT WEIGHT >= 0"
[1] "893250 NOT RETIRED"
[1] "855626 ABLE TO WORK"
YEAR IMMIGRANT NATIVE
1 1995 7.90 3.94
2 1996 7.37 4.09
3 1997 7.53 3.43
4 1998 6.57 3.28
5 1999 5.93 3.20
6 2000 5.41 3.21
7 2001 6.11 2.99
8 2002 6.08 3.74
9 2003 6.83 4.41
10 2004 7.25 4.77
11 2005 6.34 4.84
12 2006 5.79 4.66
13 2007 5.72 4.64
14 2008 6.05 4.98
15 2009 6.17 5.57
16 2010 8.62 7.75
17 2011 9.30 8.72
18 2012 8.70 8.70
19 2013 8.02 8.28
20 2014 6.77 7.96
21 2015 7.84 7.42
22 2016 7.30 7.02
23 2017 6.58 6.74
24 2018 6.92 6.48
Press enter to continue, escape to exit
The output above suggests that there are many more prime-age men who are unable to work than are retired. It shows that there are 37,624 (893,250 - 855,626) records for prime-age men who are unable to work but only 6,768 (900,018 - 893,250) records for prime-age men who are retired.
NON-WORKING MEN IN THE UNITED STATES
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------
| Native men aged 25-54, by highest degree earned | Immigrant men aged 25-54, by highest degree earned
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR IMMIGRANT NATIVE | year None High School Associate Bachelor Master Doctorate | year None High School Associate Bachelor Master Doctorate
-- ---- --------- ------ |-- ----- -------- ------------ --------- -------- -------- --------- |-- ----- --------- ----------- --------- --------- -------- ---------
1 1994 11.07 8.20 | 1 1994 23.93476 8.158448 3.896971 3.640087 2.369354 1.9878545 | 1 1994 14.033034 11.493449 8.201668 7.587995 6.557907 7.584898
2 1995 10.37 7.92 | 2 1995 25.79986 7.659562 4.388986 3.348897 1.890308 1.1966235 | 2 1995 10.820140 12.052305 8.789175 9.027794 7.523659 1.013484
3 1996 9.71 8.16 | 3 1996 24.09733 8.246367 4.332988 3.522857 2.458127 1.1240355 | 3 1996 11.932034 9.526647 9.359483 8.814626 4.581276 6.144976
4 1997 9.37 7.71 | 4 1997 22.17640 7.834706 4.719395 3.003711 2.475704 3.3732589 | 4 1997 10.956381 9.813705 6.174171 6.984775 9.539714 3.012604
5 1998 8.14 7.48 | 5 1998 22.50329 7.733667 5.044659 2.598489 1.794520 1.7700976 | 5 1998 8.714946 7.996812 9.291066 6.974422 9.747802 1.910817
6 1999 7.84 7.82 | 6 1999 23.42595 7.751093 5.971421 3.677120 2.320554 5.5305467 | 6 1999 8.531789 8.363127 3.048060 8.867331 4.361156 7.036046
7 2000 7.47 7.64 | 7 2000 24.64538 8.107736 4.301428 2.826800 2.856068 1.5169964 | 7 2000 9.169114 7.697235 6.262186 5.433323 5.624510 5.677590
8 2001 8.11 7.74 | 8 2001 23.33722 8.302969 4.219798 3.444472 2.983891 3.4924304 | 8 2001 9.758264 7.620222 9.136511 6.750867 7.315921 3.721288
9 2002 8.00 8.58 | 9 2002 26.10195 9.170032 4.961840 3.600853 2.761848 3.8744776 | 9 2002 8.617679 8.694351 10.315303 5.793964 6.351902 6.252799
10 2003 9.10 9.23 | 10 2003 24.90467 10.135294 6.224749 3.974275 3.665574 1.8380122 | 10 2003 9.840201 9.392804 10.470152 8.537524 7.234353 3.209059
11 2004 9.30 10.36 | 11 2004 27.98283 11.385504 6.673425 4.913583 4.202391 5.6700937 | 11 2004 10.604418 8.756340 10.372942 9.079274 7.497957 4.564734
12 2005 8.33 10.40 | 12 2005 26.80580 11.764377 6.361591 4.756703 4.028958 1.7104130 | 12 2005 8.064483 9.326450 5.301334 8.456405 7.884339 2.868461
13 2006 7.73 10.08 | 13 2006 27.53624 11.223668 6.524083 4.435543 2.895372 2.4916975 | 13 2006 8.590182 7.471582 4.605281 7.873194 7.227543 6.732683
14 2007 7.69 9.89 | 14 2007 27.75558 11.214378 6.097780 3.827268 2.960263 5.0618161 | 14 2007 7.757602 8.479059 9.103436 7.529590 4.676437 5.026372
15 2008 8.14 10.35 | 15 2008 29.30280 11.571590 6.461713 4.605218 3.157504 2.9787060 | 15 2008 8.312823 9.350206 8.213938 6.774803 6.344314 4.767132
16 2009 8.03 11.26 | 16 2009 31.72768 12.788053 7.043775 4.379115 3.644760 3.6361968 | 16 2009 8.276154 9.178335 8.483715 6.876599 5.042763 6.877191
17 2010 10.68 13.11 | 17 2010 34.31836 15.274047 8.440003 5.912770 4.336778 0.7922547 | 17 2010 12.175131 11.198450 10.943474 9.779326 6.959284 3.792619
18 2011 11.27 14.40 | 18 2011 36.63066 17.091594 10.024771 6.340361 5.108762 5.2275024 | 18 2011 12.420359 12.193465 10.033817 10.500795 7.358617 4.638000
19 2012 10.50 14.69 | 19 2012 37.02843 17.216450 10.482695 6.649542 6.350413 4.3658314 | 19 2012 10.866810 11.412889 10.593446 10.068147 7.693326 6.525689
20 2013 9.76 14.04 | 20 2013 39.52832 16.409264 9.349281 6.062037 5.551721 4.9366017 | 20 2013 10.560259 10.835212 9.226796 9.736871 6.290508 2.255934
21 2014 8.53 14.30 | 21 2014 38.55372 16.939782 10.255942 6.869011 4.722501 4.5033449 | 21 2014 9.348807 10.006865 6.818387 6.860362 6.360493 2.969372
22 2015 9.76 13.72 | 22 2015 36.66128 16.758037 8.971155 6.500578 4.278258 4.4359567 | 22 2015 9.956958 10.806339 7.066466 9.217391 9.067074 5.380317
23 2016 9.33 12.99 | 23 2016 33.64799 16.273820 9.122731 5.846723 4.537243 3.2254183 | 23 2016 8.188258 11.252606 11.346355 8.282496 6.654622 9.846073
24 2017 8.35 12.82 | 24 2017 36.46558 15.674528 8.521315 6.021253 5.045148 3.4543989 | 24 2017 7.447545 9.427770 10.368121 9.303247 6.029289 3.839641
25 2018 9.37 12.38 | 25 2018 35.22235 15.364383 8.504925 5.911434 5.012659 3.0057481 | 25 2018 9.295590 9.621975 11.496746 10.243454 7.149829 7.181912
NON-WORKING MEN IN THE UNITED STATES, NOT DISABLED OR RETIRED
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------
| Native men aged 25-54, by highest degree earned | Immigrant men aged 25-54, by highest degree earned
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR IMMIGRANT NATIVE | year None High School Associate Bachelor Master Doctorate | year None High School Associate Bachelor Master Doctorate
-- ---- --------- ------ |-- ----- --------- ----------- --------- -------- -------- --------- |-- ----- --------- ----------- --------- --------- -------- ---------
1 1995 7.90 3.94 | 1 1995 11.048307 3.969391 2.591929 2.442985 1.436833 1.0644856 | 1 1995 11.048307 3.969391 2.591929 2.442985 1.436833 1.0644856
2 1996 7.37 4.09 | 2 1996 10.431690 4.329267 2.700989 2.311037 1.558790 0.7813831 | 2 1996 10.431690 4.329267 2.700989 2.311037 1.558790 0.7813831
3 1997 7.53 3.43 | 3 1997 9.500403 3.396144 2.232627 1.985542 1.500015 2.1844244 | 3 1997 9.500403 3.396144 2.232627 1.985542 1.500015 2.1844244
4 1998 6.57 3.28 | 4 1998 9.326256 3.307981 2.557800 1.714335 1.358966 1.4345468 | 4 1998 9.326256 3.307981 2.557800 1.714335 1.358966 1.4345468
5 1999 5.93 3.20 | 5 1999 8.912069 3.072446 2.651000 2.165487 1.379175 3.2346097 | 5 1999 8.912069 3.072446 2.651000 2.165487 1.379175 3.2346097
6 2000 5.41 3.21 | 6 2000 9.598931 3.447551 1.519486 1.653959 2.091263 0.6489769 | 6 2000 9.598931 3.447551 1.519486 1.653959 2.091263 0.6489769
7 2001 6.11 2.99 | 7 2001 7.640450 3.103152 1.774484 2.114655 1.845905 2.0178369 | 7 2001 7.640450 3.103152 1.774484 2.114655 1.845905 2.0178369
8 2002 6.08 3.74 | 8 2002 11.031562 3.827119 2.713626 2.213669 1.753767 2.0599418 | 8 2002 11.031562 3.827119 2.713626 2.213669 1.753767 2.0599418
9 2003 6.83 4.41 | 9 2003 9.788979 5.053351 2.779903 2.561775 2.420605 0.8798000 | 9 2003 9.788979 5.053351 2.779903 2.561775 2.420605 0.8798000
10 2004 7.25 4.77 | 10 2004 10.492163 5.520809 3.034578 2.895233 2.500184 2.0146012 | 10 2004 10.492163 5.520809 3.034578 2.895233 2.500184 2.0146012
11 2005 6.34 4.84 | 11 2005 10.508144 5.561023 3.005369 3.118164 2.270327 1.3519057 | 11 2005 10.508144 5.561023 3.005369 3.118164 2.270327 1.3519057
12 2006 5.79 4.66 | 12 2006 12.228161 5.237080 3.550063 2.469026 1.586251 0.8196643 | 12 2006 12.228161 5.237080 3.550063 2.469026 1.586251 0.8196643
13 2007 5.72 4.64 | 13 2007 11.827666 5.319175 3.099831 2.381781 1.892904 4.0588827 | 13 2007 11.827666 5.319175 3.099831 2.381781 1.892904 4.0588827
14 2008 6.05 4.98 | 14 2008 13.041878 5.603615 3.355218 2.878247 2.146078 0.9251455 | 14 2008 13.041878 5.603615 3.355218 2.878247 2.146078 0.9251455
15 2009 6.17 5.57 | 15 2009 14.408642 6.527108 3.514557 2.986322 1.926392 1.7155335 | 15 2009 14.408642 6.527108 3.514557 2.986322 1.926392 1.7155335
16 2010 8.62 7.75 | 16 2010 18.588905 9.290675 5.170669 4.289186 2.838599 0.4186806 | 16 2010 18.588905 9.290675 5.170669 4.289186 2.838599 0.4186806
17 2011 9.30 8.72 | 17 2011 21.305855 10.570562 5.892957 4.527796 3.757421 3.6489758 | 17 2011 21.305855 10.570562 5.892957 4.527796 3.757421 3.6489758
18 2012 8.70 8.70 | 18 2012 19.545043 10.556135 5.979951 4.920452 4.254250 2.8845053 | 18 2012 19.545043 10.556135 5.979951 4.920452 4.254250 2.8845053
19 2013 8.02 8.28 | 19 2013 24.655405 9.570819 5.281138 4.509749 3.731786 3.1907374 | 19 2013 24.655405 9.570819 5.281138 4.509749 3.731786 3.1907374
20 2014 6.77 7.96 | 20 2014 21.790390 9.314117 5.831258 4.948481 2.925943 2.6825799 | 20 2014 21.790390 9.314117 5.831258 4.948481 2.925943 2.6825799
21 2015 7.84 7.42 | 21 2015 18.560155 9.043120 5.460408 4.398864 2.909817 3.2347204 | 21 2015 18.560155 9.043120 5.460408 4.398864 2.909817 3.2347204
22 2016 7.30 7.02 | 22 2016 15.781907 8.780200 5.316584 4.116720 3.387643 1.9143537 | 22 2016 15.781907 8.780200 5.316584 4.116720 3.387643 1.9143537
23 2017 6.58 6.74 | 23 2017 18.398457 8.383382 4.502473 3.694777 3.395725 1.6152388 | 23 2017 18.398457 8.383382 4.502473 3.694777 3.395725 1.6152388
24 2018 6.92 6.48 | 24 2018 17.442355 8.023544 4.517707 3.896661 3.145084 1.5484971 | 24 2018 17.442355 8.023544 4.517707 3.896661 3.145084 1.5484971
A Look At Those Non-working Prime-age Men Who Are Disabled or Retired
DISABLED NON-WORKING MEN IN THE UNITED STATES
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Native men aged 25-54, by highest degree earned | Immigrant men aged 25-54, by highest degree earned
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR IMMIGRANT NATIVE | year None High School Associate Bachelor Master Doctorate | year None High School Associate Bachelor Master Doctorate
-- ---- --------- ------ |-- ----- --------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- --------- |-- ----- --------- ----------- --------- ---------- ---------- ----------
1 1995 2.58 3.76 | 1 1995 16.08138 3.461753 1.323840 0.6552704 0.1306020 0.0000000 | 1 1995 3.709793 2.925180 1.1868261 1.0257672 0.8471430 0.0000000
2 1996 2.18 3.86 | 2 1996 15.01846 3.705346 1.324745 0.9456574 0.2204922 0.3463243 | 2 1996 3.878432 1.974178 0.1155726 1.1068576 0.0000000 0.0000000
3 1997 1.58 4.06 | 3 1997 13.70418 4.169770 2.125698 0.8259886 0.6559028 0.6776126 | 3 1997 3.008971 1.140454 0.0000000 1.1402163 0.0000000 0.0000000
4 1998 1.55 3.90 | 4 1998 14.42138 4.021783 1.945744 0.5649698 0.3368762 0.0000000 | 4 1998 2.641189 1.449000 2.4823674 0.1730209 0.3163232 0.0000000
5 1999 1.69 4.18 | 5 1999 15.35430 4.183950 2.738477 1.0705916 0.5818965 1.4172897 | 5 1999 2.858201 1.664925 0.0000000 0.9361026 0.1726753 0.8075112
6 2000 2.00 4.01 | 6 2000 15.89374 4.238604 2.147039 0.7462440 0.3460564 0.5243348 | 6 2000 3.180888 2.735181 0.0000000 0.1681430 0.0000000 0.0000000
7 2001 1.85 4.28 | 7 2001 15.99771 4.704565 1.924887 0.8944997 0.7455804 0.8317807 | 7 2001 2.660512 2.170350 1.1676074 0.3109824 1.5617847 0.0000000
8 2002 1.62 4.32 | 8 2002 16.12638 4.773897 1.680512 0.8597984 0.5031397 1.1168292 | 8 2002 2.703811 1.673878 1.9448067 0.1785155 0.3807437 0.0000000
9 2003 2.04 4.28 | 9 2003 16.25082 4.563363 2.600486 0.7075741 0.6258014 0.4046720 | 9 2003 3.236221 2.163898 2.9393978 0.3804012 0.3409896 0.0000000
10 2004 1.77 4.94 | 10 2004 18.43762 5.301033 2.925119 1.2482801 0.9642927 0.3668777 | 10 2004 2.746075 1.866018 1.2430301 0.8999215 0.1892299 0.0000000
11 2005 1.88 4.99 | 11 2005 17.39550 5.560878 2.815701 1.1066169 0.9079567 0.2204568 | 11 2005 2.366931 2.381061 1.4452187 1.0285265 0.3123754 0.0000000
12 2006 1.51 4.87 | 12 2006 16.81192 5.499556 2.431327 1.0681490 0.7134308 0.8071273 | 12 2006 2.278323 1.544002 1.5533078 0.6344347 0.5144939 0.0000000
13 2007 1.74 4.78 | 13 2007 17.70604 5.398951 2.387974 0.7680206 0.7093152 0.2458980 | 13 2007 2.245004 2.147676 0.9926387 1.1840620 0.1414056 0.0000000
14 2008 1.75 4.86 | 14 2008 17.97597 5.378892 2.653847 1.0312747 0.7115109 1.6411380 | 14 2008 2.611359 2.386628 0.0000000 0.4567881 0.0000000 0.5338829
15 2009 1.64 5.20 | 15 2009 19.62048 5.759108 2.573172 0.9539512 1.0994386 1.6750365 | 15 2009 2.522386 1.741043 0.3272055 0.8958736 0.5929432 0.5424092
16 2010 1.84 5.09 | 16 2010 18.72812 5.822339 2.731353 1.1670870 0.6868612 0.0000000 | 16 2010 2.850343 2.003576 0.4242476 1.1626511 0.3372564 0.0000000
17 2011 1.80 5.43 | 17 2011 19.05375 6.437510 3.625263 1.1436260 0.7789124 0.8971709 | 17 2011 2.595435 1.874652 2.4440075 0.7351783 0.6870407 0.6944049
18 2012 1.74 5.54 | 18 2012 20.75997 6.429384 3.650047 1.0650427 0.8357917 0.3606428 | 18 2012 2.355460 2.164047 1.7569843 0.5490158 0.7719700 0.0000000
19 2013 1.52 5.34 | 19 2013 19.18188 6.478316 3.569032 0.8624924 1.0120084 0.3385326 | 19 2013 2.548611 1.714216 1.2616380 0.4033696 0.3197690 0.0000000
20 2014 1.56 5.91 | 20 2014 20.55271 7.435293 3.597740 1.0863968 1.1377807 0.3004109 | 20 2014 2.612466 1.715208 0.3132848 1.0159932 0.0000000 0.0000000
21 2015 1.58 5.82 | 21 2015 21.30767 7.364882 2.748937 1.3634004 0.7672015 0.8561827 | 21 2015 2.813269 1.918765 0.1731165 0.2312780 0.4432753 0.0000000
22 2016 1.79 5.40 | 22 2016 20.28905 7.079810 2.865810 0.8924930 0.7558641 0.0862324 | 22 2016 2.353141 2.472633 1.9098678 0.6968668 0.5146112 0.0000000
23 2017 1.33 5.51 | 23 2017 21.18124 6.868799 3.457537 1.3820804 1.0375575 0.7595016 | 23 2017 1.167925 2.210231 1.1742760 0.8998081 0.1088280 0.0000000
24 2018 1.91 5.22 | 24 2018 20.04370 6.789893 3.436705 1.1589801 0.9053831 0.2018813 | 24 2018 3.122189 2.195476 1.5527049 1.4315285 0.2812128 0.0000000
RETIRED NON-WORKING MEN IN THE UNITED STATES
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Native men aged 25-54, by highest degree earned | Immigrant men aged 25-54, by highest degree earned
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------
YEAR IMMIGRANT NATIVE | year None High School Associate Bachelor Master Doctorate | year None High School Associate Bachelor Master Doctorate
-- ---- --------- ------ |-- ----- --------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- --------- |-- ----- --------- ----------- --------- ---------- ---------- ----------
1 1995 0.12 0.42 | 1 1995 0.7005062 0.4085641 0.5433495 0.2790568 0.3325461 0.1335596 | 1 1995 0.09834692 0.1588815 0.0000000 0.19365845 0.00000000 0.00000000
2 1996 0.39 0.41 | 2 1996 0.3940633 0.4222671 0.3594394 0.3015301 0.6989604 0.0000000 | 2 1996 0.42200744 0.4226592 0.0000000 0.05406266 0.34657184 2.02434503
3 1997 0.44 0.40 | 3 1997 0.4360529 0.4555241 0.4340468 0.2186441 0.3357844 0.5450693 | 3 1997 0.32136737 0.5283576 0.0000000 0.27243357 1.13516506 0.00000000
4 1998 0.14 0.48 | 4 1998 0.3280850 0.5832828 0.6320703 0.3422703 0.1103779 0.3404345 | 4 1998 0.05372399 0.2304581 0.3463307 0.00000000 0.32386742 0.00000000
5 1999 0.36 0.62 | 5 1999 0.7211110 0.6705161 0.6897190 0.4806097 0.3811600 0.9629082 | 5 1999 0.34346595 0.2992427 0.0000000 0.74771377 0.05349759 0.73325606
6 2000 0.21 0.60 | 6 2000 0.9121715 0.6153724 0.6893572 0.4543563 0.4443081 0.3527530 | 6 2000 0.17711985 0.1706441 0.0000000 0.40716160 0.00000000 0.88590790
7 2001 0.30 0.65 | 7 2001 1.1252099 0.6884521 0.5777656 0.4720502 0.4205754 0.6731805 | 7 2001 0.27294866 0.2004237 0.6892008 0.36995951 0.25212994 0.93347385
8 2002 0.46 0.73 | 8 2002 0.9338799 0.8130914 0.6481050 0.5662237 0.5321727 0.7432873 | 8 2002 0.47068659 0.1953694 0.8842511 0.83845936 0.56774976 0.00000000
9 2003 0.43 0.79 | 9 2003 0.6420726 0.8274874 0.9683822 0.7497139 0.6564223 0.5652754 | 9 2003 0.30580147 0.4749081 1.0932572 0.56278920 0.23382024 0.00000000
10 2004 0.48 0.96 | 10 2004 1.2371142 0.9506275 0.8400538 0.8346554 0.7896016 3.3637724 | 10 2004 0.26236244 0.6968176 1.1529931 0.24327632 0.51801824 0.77360479
11 2005 0.27 0.89 | 11 2005 0.9692070 1.0538939 0.6617736 0.5936953 0.8970724 0.1429636 | 11 2005 0.18240053 0.2051484 0.5260422 0.26373733 0.72974524 0.00000000
12 2006 0.57 0.84 | 12 2006 0.8204147 0.8546728 0.6733143 0.9579291 0.6189801 0.8821724 | 12 2006 0.42424643 0.8044232 0.7355406 0.41826895 0.52568173 0.00000000
13 2007 0.37 0.75 | 13 2007 0.5031789 0.8647895 0.7136229 0.7240706 0.3845667 0.8068404 | 13 2007 0.36586815 0.4833082 0.5435335 0.16973694 0.27630731 0.00000000
14 2008 0.51 0.84 | 14 2008 0.9403883 0.9955738 0.5807804 0.7550594 0.3302959 0.4345739 | 14 2008 0.48902353 0.4693790 0.7013054 0.68983343 0.30975385 0.39442797
15 2009 0.35 0.86 | 15 2009 0.8549496 1.0045244 1.1106624 0.4942522 0.6544887 0.2839276 | 15 2009 0.37022524 0.2371531 1.0203195 0.15254838 0.59925968 0.86238468
16 2010 0.44 0.77 | 16 2010 0.9198038 0.8340757 0.7404670 0.5424404 0.8655727 0.3765070 | 16 2010 0.35309837 0.4017933 0.6844143 0.63476218 0.14045909 1.26210378
17 2011 0.40 0.85 | 17 2011 0.7945373 0.9349470 0.7861712 0.7671243 0.6430117 0.7442835 | 17 2011 0.65413309 0.3148113 0.2868079 0.18324335 0.32672583 0.61131771
18 2012 0.26 1.05 | 18 2012 1.2144291 1.0769650 1.1581496 0.7687674 1.3583420 1.1700400 | 18 2012 0.19049340 0.2617462 0.2654799 0.41159907 0.22702881 0.08864114
19 2013 0.40 1.00 | 19 2013 0.8833687 1.1770132 0.7629543 0.7750442 0.8884957 1.4897124 | 19 2013 0.67198634 0.3872264 0.0000000 0.24596686 0.25236030 0.00000000
20 2014 0.35 1.04 | 20 2014 1.3504592 1.0492081 1.1482158 0.9453819 0.7273440 1.5756760 | 20 2014 0.28138097 0.4393364 0.4818309 0.29069364 0.37660180 0.00000000
21 2015 0.53 1.04 | 21 2015 1.2215605 1.1957422 0.9996085 0.8501832 0.6522696 0.3894155 | 21 2015 0.68755442 0.4914146 1.2762897 0.35510109 0.25148090 0.00000000
22 2016 0.43 1.06 | 22 2016 1.1564424 1.2042425 1.2000580 0.9211286 0.4419830 1.2523635 | 22 2016 0.63139901 0.2444524 0.9246287 0.47554764 0.21663388 0.52846147
23 2017 0.59 1.05 | 23 2017 1.2480460 1.1600731 0.7770266 1.0468981 0.6803316 1.1098531 | 23 2017 0.82170588 0.5405803 0.2903691 0.56027200 0.57496419 0.20175247
24 2018 0.76 1.13 | 24 2018 1.6223185 1.2574315 0.7588538 0.9456606 1.0310096 1.2807671 | 24 2018 0.86856416 0.8147737 0.5730498 0.92104604 0.11357819 1.17321681
The first graph in the first row of graphs above show that the percentage of prime-age native men who were unable to work rose from about 4 percent in 1995 to about 6 percent in 2014 but has since dropped back to a little above 5 percent. For prime-age immigrant men who are unable to work, the percentage has stayed around 2 percent. The second graph in the first row shows that the percentage of prime-age native men who are unable to work tends to be higher for workers with lower educations. This would not seem surprising since those workers who seem more likely to have jobs requiring physical labor. However, it's harder to explain why the percentage has been rising for nearly all groups, most obviously for those with less than a bachelor's degree.
A Look At Non-working Prime-age Men Using R: 1994-2016
A Look At Mariel Using R