Excel sheet: PresAll
Sort by: State, Ascending, absolute value
Shift from: 11/3/20
Set: 1
State VoteShare ExitPoll 11/3/20 11/1/20 10/28/20 10/24/20 10/19/20 10/14/20 Shift Flip_EP F_11_03
1 Alabama -25.6 -14.5 -20.0 -19.6 -19.6 -19.4 -19.0 -19.2 5.6
2 Alaska -10.8 -10.8 -8.4 -8.3 -8.0 -7.6 -6.8 -7.0 2.4
3 Arizona 0.3 5.6 2.6 3.3 2.4 2.5 3.2 2.9 2.3
4 Arkansas -28.0 -28.0 -22.7 -23.0 -10.9 -20.3 -17.9 -18.5 5.3
5 California 30.1 25.0 30.0 29.0 29.3 29.8 30.9 30.7 -0.1
6 Colorado 13.5 13.3 11.7 12.4 12.2 11.5 11.7 11.4 -1.8
7 Connecticut 20.0 20.0 24.1 22.9 22.8 22.5 22.9 22.5 4.1
9 DC 87.1 87.1 85.9 85.0 83.3 83.3 83.2 83.1 -1.2
8 Delaware 19.0 19.0 25.7 25.3 24.0 25.8 26.2 25.8 6.7
10 Florida -3.4 -0.4 2.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 3.3 3.4 5.9 +
11 Georgia 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6
12 Hawaii 29.4 29.4 36.6 35.6 34.3 34.5 35.6 34.6 7.2
13 Idaho -30.7 -30.7 -22.0 -23.0 -22.8 -23.4 -22.8 -24.2 8.7
14 Illinois 16.0 16.0 17.9 17.0 17.4 18.5 19.4 19.2 1.9
15 Indiana -16.1 -16.1 -10.8 -9.8 -9.7 -10.6 -10.2 -10.5 5.3
16 Iowa -8.3 0.9 -1.5 -2.1 0.1 -0.1 -1.2 -1.2 6.8 +
17 Kansas -15.2 -15.2 -13.2 -11.2 -10.8 -10.8 -9.2 -9.9 2.0
18 Kentucky -25.9 -17.4 -18.0 -18.0 -19.0 -19.2 -19.2 -19.6 7.9
19 Louisiana -18.6 -18.6 -18.6 -18.6 -17.8 -15.3 -14.7 -14.8 0.0
20 Maine(AL) 10.0 13.5 11.8 11.9 12.0 11.9 12.3 12.3 1.8
21 Maryland 31.7 31.7 31.4 30.1 29.8 31.2 31.6 31.4 -0.3
22 Massachusetts 32.7 32.7 34.9 35.1 34.8 35.5 35.7 35.1 2.2
23 Michigan 2.6 9.2 8.0 8.6 8.1 7.4 8.0 7.9 5.4
24 Minnesota 7.1 7.4 9.1 8.7 8.7 7.5 8.6 8.4 2.0
25 Mississippi -20.1 -20.1 -14.3 -14.3 -14.0 -13.4 -12.5 -12.3 5.8
26 Missouri -15.6 -15.6 -9.5 -8.8 -9.1 -9.1 -8.8 -8.8 6.1
27 Montana -16.3 -8.0 -6.3 -7.2 -7.9 -9.8 -9.9 -10.6 10.0
28 Nebraska(AL) -19.3 -19.3 -18.0 -17.7 -17.5 -17.3 -16.8 -17.0 1.3
29 Nevada 2.7 6.2 6.1 6.9 7.1 7.5 7.1 6.8 3.4
30 New Hampshire 7.3 10.1 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.0 10.3 9.9 3.3
31 New Jersey 15.7 15.7 20.3 21.5 19.3 19.6 19.4 19.0 4.6
32 New Mexico 10.6 10.6 13.0 12.8 12.7 13.3 14.3 13.9 2.4
33 New York 13.2 27.2 29.1 29.8 29.0 29.4 29.8 29.4 15.9
34 North Carolina -1.4 0.9 1.7 2.5 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.4 3.1 + +
35 North Dakota -33.3 -33.3 -21.7 -22.5 -21.7 -23.3 -23.0 -23.8 11.6
36 Ohio -8.1 -5.3 -0.6 0.0 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 0.2 7.5
37 Oklahoma -33.1 -33.1 -25.2 -24.9 -24.6 -24.7 -24.5 -25.2 7.9
38 Oregon 16.1 17.5 19.4 18.5 17.4 17.9 18.3 17.8 3.3
39 Pennsylvania 0.9 3.0 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.7 5.9 6.5 3.8
40 Rhode Island 20.7 20.7 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.5 27.6 26.7 6.5
41 South Carolina -11.7 -6.2 -7.5 -8.2 -8.5 -7.9 -8.0 -8.1 4.2
42 South Dakota -26.2 -26.2 -17.0 -16.5 -15.6 -17.6 -17.0 -18.4 9.2
43 Tennessee -23.3 -23.3 -15.7 -16.2 -15.9 -15.7 -15.7 -16.1 7.6
44 Texas -5.7 -3.6 -1.5 -1.8 -2.8 -2.3 -2.9 -3.1 4.2
45 Utah -20.2 -20.2 -13.8 -14.3 -14.9 -14.8 -14.9 -15.5 6.4
46 Vermont 35.4 35.4 38.1 37.0 35.7 34.4 35.0 34.0 2.7
47 Virginia 10.1 11.2 12.5 12.1 12.4 12.4 13.4 13.3 2.4
48 Washington 19.4 16.7 23.8 23.7 23.1 23.9 24.5 24.6 4.4
49 West Virginia -39.1 -39.1 -30.7 -29.8 -28.0 -27.8 -28.1 -27.9 8.4
50 Wisconsin 0.7 10.5 8.3 8.4 8.3 6.0 6.7 7.0 7.6
51 Wyoming -43.3 -43.3 -34.8 -35.0 -38.2 -39.2 -38.2 -38.0 8.5
Source: Jonathan Simon, author of "CODE RED: Computerized Elections and the War on American Democracy"; see tweet
Excel sheet: SenateAll
Sort by: State, Ascending, absolute value
Shift from: 11/3/20
Set: 1
State VoteShare ExitPoll 11/3/20 11/1/20 10/28/20 10/24/20 10/19/20 10/14/20 Shift Flip_EP F_11_03
1 Alabama -20.8 -7.6 -8.8 -7.2 -7.2 -6.4 -5.0 -4.6 12.0
2 Alaska -31.1 -31.1 -5.8 -5.6 -6.4 -6.7 -6.0 -5.2 25.3
3 Arizona 3.4 4.7 5.2 5.8 5.4 5.6 6.2 6.4 1.8
4 Arkansas -33.4 -33.4 -52.2 -52.2 -47.2 -47.4 -49.2 0.0 -18.8
5 Colorado 8.9 15.8 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.7 6.7 -1.2
6 Delaware 21.6 21.6 30.8 31.2 30.9 30.6 30.7 0.0 9.2
7 Georgia (1) -2.1 3.3 -0.3 -0.4 -2.2 -2.7 -3.0 -2.9 1.8 +
8 Georgia (2)* 6.8 9.2 15.0 17.2 11.5 11.0 19.0 9.7 8.2
9 Idaho -29.0 -29.0 -23.9 -23.6 -23.9 -24.0 -23.7 0.0 5.1
10 Illinois 12.2 12.2 24.0 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 0.0 11.8
11 Iowa -6.6 -2.1 -1.4 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.8 5.2
12 Kansas -12.2 -12.2 -5.8 -5.2 -4.9 -5.1 -4.8 -3.9 6.4
13 Kentucky -20.6 -10.1 -13.0 -13.3 -13.4 -13.5 -14.2 -12.8 7.6
14 Louisiana -29.2 -29.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.2 +
15 Maine -7.5 -1.6 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.0 9.5 +
16 Massachusetts 32.5 32.5 34.2 35.7 35.5 37.6 37.6 0.0 1.7
17 Michigan 1.5 7.6 7.0 7.0 6.7 6.4 6.6 6.9 5.5
18 Minnesota 5.3 6.0 12.3 12.3 12.5 11.9 12.7 9.5 7.0
19 Mississippi -13.1 -13.1 -9.2 -9.1 -10.5 -10.2 -10.1 -6.6 3.9
20 Montana -10.4 1.3 -3.2 -2.8 -3.2 -3.4 -3.2 -3.6 7.2 +
21 Nebraska -38.9 -38.9 -32.0 -31.7 -31.7 -31.8 -35.5 0.0 6.9
22 New Hampshire 15.5 13.2 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.2 0.0 1.6
23 New Jersey 20.3 20.3 25.5 26.4 25.5 25.3 25.3 0.0 5.2
24 New Mexico 5.9 5.9 12.9 13.1 13.7 13.5 13.9 0.0 7.0
25 North Carolina -1.8 0.8 3.2 2.5 2.3 2.6 3.0 4.7 5.0 + +
26 Oklahoma -30.1 -30.1 -22.2 -22.0 -22.2 -22.3 -23.6 0.0 7.9
27 Oregon 17.9 21.7 24.4 24.7 24.3 24.3 24.4 0.0 6.5
28 Rhode Island 32.6 32.6 48.0 48.4 48.0 46.8 46.8 0.0 15.4
29 South Carolina -10.3 -3.5 -5.1 -5.2 -5.7 -5.2 -5.6 -5.5 5.2
30 South Dakota -31.6 -31.6 -23.8 -27.2 -27.0 -27.2 -27.4 0.0 7.8
31 Tennessee -26.8 -26.8 -23.0 -22.4 -22.6 -22.9 -24.3 0.0 3.8
32 Texas -9.8 -7.6 -7.3 -7.9 -8.5 -8.2 -8.2 -8.3 2.5
33 Virginia 11.4 11.4 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.1 17.6 0.0 6.8
34 West Virginia -43.5 -43.5 -24.3 -24.0 -24.2 -24.5 -24.4 0.0 19.2
35 Wyoming -46.2 -46.2 -35.4 -35.0 -40.4 -40.8 -40.6 0.0 10.8
Source: Jonathan Simon, author of "CODE RED: Computerized Elections and the War on American Democracy"; see tweet
Excel sheet: House-Rove Sort by: State, Ascending Shift from: 11/3/20 Set: 2 State VoteShare ExitPoll 11/3/20 11/1/20 10/28/20 10/24/20 10/19/20 10/14/20 Shift Flip_EP F_11_03 1 AK/AL -27 NA -6.4 -6.0 -6.2 -6.4 -6.2 -4.8 20.6 28 AZ/1 4 NA 9.6 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.6 10.0 5.6 27 AZ/2 15 NA 16.8 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.6 17.2 1.8 29 AZ/6 -2 NA -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -3.2 -3.0 NA 0.8 24 FL/15 -10 NA -6.2 -6.0 -6.2 -6.4 -6.4 -6.2 3.8 23 FL/16 -12 NA -9.4 -9.2 -9.4 -9.6 -9.4 -10.0 2.6 21 FL/26 -4 NA 8.2 7.6 7.4 7.2 6.6 5.8 12.2 + 22 FL/27 -2 NA 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.4 7.8 9.2 + 8 IA/1 -2 NA 8.0 8.2 7.8 7.8 7.2 7.2 10.0 + 6 IA/2 0 NA 8.6 8.8 8.4 8.2 4.6 4.6 8.6 7 IA/3 1 NA 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.2 6.1 5.7 6.2 31 ME/2 8 NA 13.8 16.0 15.8 15.0 15.2 13.6 5.8 9 MI/11 -29 NA 12.8 13.1 12.8 13.0 13.0 14.0 41.8 + 11 MI/3 -6 NA -1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2 -3.0 -3.2 5.0 12 MI/6 -16 NA -4.6 -4.3 -4.5 -4.7 -4.7 -4.4 11.4 10 MI/8 4 NA 13.4 13.6 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.9 9.4 4 MN/1 -3 NA -2.1 -2.5 -3.2 -3.4 -4.1 -4.6 0.9 3 MN/2 2 NA 11.7 12.0 11.8 11.8 11.3 11.5 9.7 5 MN/7 -13 NA -6.5 -5.5 -5.6 -5.7 -5.7 -3.8 6.5 2 MT/AL -12 NA -5.0 -4.8 -5.2 -5.5 -4.6 -4.8 7.0 19 NC/11 -13 NA -4.9 -5.3 -6.1 -6.3 -5.9 -5.7 8.1 20 NC/8 -6 NA -3.0 -2.8 -3.2 -3.4 -3.4 -4.2 3.0 30 NH/1 6 NA 7.1 7.3 10.0 9.9 9.9 11.4 1.1 25 NV/3 1 NA 8.0 8.9 8.6 8.8 8.6 10.6 7.0 26 NV/4 3 NA 5.2 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 6.0 2.2 15 PA/10 -10 NA -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -1.0 -1.4 9.6 13 PA/17 2 NA 10.4 10.2 8.4 8.4 8.6 9.2 8.4 14 PA/8 2 NA 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8 8.2 18 VA/2 4 NA 7.8 8.0 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.6 3.8 16 VA/5 -8 NA -0.2 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 7.8 17 VA/7 2 NA 6.4 6.8 6.4 -6.4 6.4 7.4 4.4 Note: ExitPoll was not available for these House races. ExitPoll is therefore set equal to VoteShare to improve graph's appearance. Source: Jonathan Simon, author of "CODE RED: Computerized Elections and the War on American Democracy"; see tweet
Excel sheet: Pres96
Sort by: State, Ascending, absolute value
Shift from: 11/3/20
Set: 1
State 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Shift Party Flip_Dem
1 Alabama -6.96 -14.91 -25.62 -21.58 -22.19 -27.73 -25.46 2.26 1_Solid R
2 Alaska -17.53 -30.95 -25.55 -21.53 -13.99 -14.73 -10.06 4.67 1_Solid R
3 Arizona 2.23 -6.29 -10.47 -8.52 -9.06 -3.55 0.31 3.85 2_Leans R +
4 Arkansas 16.94 -5.45 -9.76 -19.86 -23.69 -26.92 -27.62 -0.70 1_Solid R
5 California 12.89 11.80 9.94 24.06 23.12 30.11 29.18 -0.93 5_Solid D
6 Colorado -1.37 -8.36 -4.67 8.95 5.37 4.91 13.50 8.60 4_Leans D
7 Connecticut 18.14 17.47 10.36 22.37 17.33 13.64 20.03 6.39 5_Solid D
8 D.C. 75.85 76.21 79.84 85.93 83.63 86.78 86.75 -0.02 5_Solid D
9 Delaware 15.24 13.06 7.60 24.99 18.63 11.37 18.97 7.59 5_Solid D
10 Florida 5.70 -0.01 -5.01 2.81 0.88 -1.20 -3.36 -2.16 3_Toss-Up
11 Georgia -1.17 -11.69 -16.60 -5.21 -7.82 -5.13 0.25 5.38 2_Leans R +
12 Hawaii 25.29 18.33 8.75 45.27 42.71 32.18 29.46 -2.72 5_Solid D
13 Idaho -18.54 -39.53 -38.12 -25.43 -31.91 -31.77 -30.80 0.97 1_Solid R
14 Illinois 17.50 12.02 10.34 25.14 16.87 17.06 17.00 -0.06 5_Solid D
15 Indiana -5.58 -15.64 -20.68 1.04 -10.20 -19.17 -16.06 3.11 1_Solid R
16 Iowa 10.34 0.32 -0.67 9.54 5.81 -9.41 -8.20 1.21 1_Solid R
17 Kansas -18.21 -20.80 -25.38 -14.96 -21.72 -20.60 -14.65 5.95 1_Solid R
18 Kentucky 0.96 -15.13 -19.86 -16.23 -22.69 -29.84 -25.94 3.90 1_Solid R
19 Louisiana 12.07 -7.67 -14.50 -18.63 -17.21 -19.64 -18.61 1.03 1_Solid R
20 Maine 20.86 5.12 8.99 17.33 15.29 2.96 9.07 6.11 3_Toss-Up
21 Maryland 15.98 16.39 12.98 25.45 26.08 26.42 33.21 6.79 5_Solid D
22 Massachusetts 33.39 27.30 25.16 25.81 23.14 27.20 33.46 6.26 5_Solid D
23 Michigan 13.21 5.13 3.42 16.47 9.50 -0.22 2.78 3.01 3_Toss-Up +
24 Minnesota 16.14 2.40 3.48 10.24 7.69 1.52 7.11 5.59 3_Toss-Up
25 Mississippi -5.13 -16.92 -19.69 -13.18 -11.50 -17.83 -16.55 1.28 1_Solid R
26 Missouri 6.30 -3.34 -7.20 -0.14 -9.38 -18.64 -15.36 3.27 1_Solid R
27 Montana -2.88 -25.08 -20.50 -2.26 -13.65 -20.42 -16.37 4.05 1_Solid R
28 Nebraska -18.71 -28.99 -33.22 -14.93 -21.78 -25.05 -19.15 5.90 1_Solid R
29 Nevada 1.02 -3.54 -2.59 12.50 6.68 2.42 2.39 -0.03 3_Toss-Up
30 New Hampshire 9.95 -1.27 1.37 9.61 5.58 0.37 7.35 6.98 3_Toss-Up
31 New Jersey 17.86 15.83 6.68 15.57 17.79 14.10 15.90 1.80 5_Solid D
32 New Mexico 7.32 0.06 -0.79 15.13 10.15 8.21 10.79 2.58 4_Leans D
33 New York 28.86 24.98 18.29 26.85 28.18 22.49 22.42 -0.07 5_Solid D
34 North Carolina -4.69 -12.83 -12.44 0.32 -2.04 -3.66 -1.35 2.31 2_Leans R
35 North Dakota -6.81 -27.60 -27.36 -8.63 -19.63 -35.73 -33.36 2.37 1_Solid R
36 Ohio 6.36 -3.51 -2.10 4.59 2.98 -8.13 -8.03 0.10 2_Leans R
37 Oklahoma -7.81 -21.88 -31.14 -31.30 -33.54 -36.39 -33.09 3.30 1_Solid R
38 Oregon 8.09 0.44 4.16 16.35 12.09 10.98 16.09 5.11 5_Solid D
39 Pennsylvania 9.20 4.17 2.50 10.32 5.39 -0.72 1.18 1.90 3_Toss-Up +
40 Rhode Island 32.89 29.08 20.75 27.80 27.46 15.51 20.77 5.27 5_Solid D
41 South Carolina -5.83 -15.94 -17.08 -8.97 -10.47 -14.27 -11.68 2.59 1_Solid R
42 South Dakota -3.46 -22.74 -21.47 -8.41 -18.02 -29.79 -26.16 3.63 1_Solid R
43 Tennessee 2.41 -3.87 -14.27 -15.07 -20.40 -26.01 -23.21 2.80 1_Solid R
44 Texas -4.93 -21.32 -22.87 -11.77 -15.78 -9.00 -5.58 3.42 2_Leans R
45 Utah -21.07 -40.49 -45.54 -28.17 -48.04 -18.08 -20.48 -2.40 1_Solid R
46 Vermont 22.26 9.93 20.14 37.01 35.60 26.41 35.41 9.00 5_Solid D
47 Virginia -1.95 -8.03 -8.20 6.30 3.87 5.32 10.11 4.79 4_Leans D
48 Washington 12.54 5.58 7.18 17.17 14.87 15.71 19.20 3.50 5_Solid D
49 West Virginia 14.74 -6.33 -12.86 -13.12 -26.76 -42.07 -38.94 3.14 1_Solid R
50 Wisconsin 10.33 0.22 0.38 13.91 6.94 -0.76 0.63 1.39 3_Toss-Up +
51 Wyoming -12.97 -40.06 -39.79 -32.24 -40.82 -46.30 -43.38 2.91 1_Solid R
Source: 2020 National Popular Vote Tracker, Cook Report (Excel, Sheet1)
Federal Elections 2016, Federal Elections Commission (Excel, Appendix A)
Shift from 538_deluxe Prediction Margins to Vote Share Margins in Presidential Race in 2020
District Dem_pred Rep_pred Dem_vote Rep_vote MarginV MarginP Shift
1 AL 39.62 59.62 36.57 62.03 -25.46 -20.00 -5.46
2 AK 44.50 52.95 42.77 52.83 -10.06 -8.45 -1.61
3 AZ 50.67 48.09 49.36 49.06 0.31 2.59 -2.28
4 AR 37.77 60.46 34.78 62.40 -27.62 -22.68 -4.94
5 CA 64.06 34.11 63.51 34.33 29.18 29.95 -0.77
6 CO 54.54 42.82 55.40 41.90 13.50 11.71 1.79
7 CT 61.58 37.54 59.24 39.21 20.03 24.03 -4.01
8 DC 91.27 5.41 92.15 5.40 86.75 85.86 0.89
9 DE 62.28 36.65 58.74 39.77 18.97 25.63 -6.66
10 FL 50.88 48.42 47.86 51.22 -3.36 2.46 -5.82
11 GA 50.10 49.15 49.51 49.25 0.25 0.95 -0.70
12 HI 67.53 30.91 63.73 34.27 29.46 36.62 -7.16
13 ID 37.51 59.48 33.10 63.90 -30.80 -21.97 -8.84
14 IL 58.28 40.39 57.53 40.52 17.00 17.89 -0.89
15 IN 43.99 54.76 40.96 57.02 -16.06 -10.78 -5.28
16 IA 48.49 49.96 44.89 53.09 -8.20 -1.47 -6.73
17 KS 42.50 55.72 41.56 56.21 -14.65 -13.22 -1.43
18 KY 40.40 58.40 36.15 62.09 -25.94 -18.01 -7.93
19 LA 40.22 58.78 39.85 58.46 -18.61 -18.56 -0.05
20 ME 55.16 43.37 53.09 44.02 9.07 11.79 -2.72
21 MD 64.98 33.63 65.36 32.15 33.21 31.35 1.86
22 MA 66.66 31.83 65.60 32.14 33.46 34.82 -1.36
23 MI 53.50 45.52 50.62 47.84 2.78 7.99 -5.20
24 MN 53.70 44.63 52.40 45.29 7.11 9.07 -1.96
25 MS 42.48 56.79 41.10 57.65 -16.55 -14.31 -2.24
26 MO 44.63 54.06 41.36 56.73 -15.36 -9.43 -5.94
27 MT 45.86 52.21 40.55 56.92 -16.37 -6.35 -10.02
28 NE 40.18 58.18 39.36 58.51 -19.15 -18.00 -1.15
29 NV 52.33 46.21 50.06 47.67 2.39 6.12 -3.73
30 NH 54.83 44.21 52.71 45.36 7.35 10.62 -3.27
31 NJ 59.74 39.43 57.20 41.30 15.90 20.31 -4.41
32 NM 55.60 42.57 54.29 43.50 10.79 13.03 -2.24
33 NY 64.06 34.95 60.50 38.08 22.42 29.11 -6.68
34 NC 50.53 48.77 48.59 49.93 -1.35 1.76 -3.11
35 ND 37.93 59.63 31.76 65.11 -33.36 -21.70 -11.66
36 OH 49.20 49.79 45.24 53.27 -8.03 -0.59 -7.44
37 OK 36.86 62.08 32.29 65.37 -33.09 -25.23 -7.86
38 OR 58.70 39.27 56.47 40.38 16.09 19.43 -3.34
39 PA 51.98 47.33 50.02 48.84 1.18 4.65 -3.47
40 RI 62.94 35.67 59.39 38.61 20.77 27.27 -6.49
41 SC 45.88 53.38 43.43 55.11 -11.68 -7.49 -4.19
42 SD 40.81 57.80 35.61 61.77 -26.16 -16.99 -9.17
43 TN 41.55 57.26 37.45 60.66 -23.21 -15.70 -7.50
44 TX 48.79 50.30 46.48 52.06 -5.58 -1.52 -4.06
45 UT 41.70 55.46 37.65 58.13 -20.48 -13.76 -6.72
46 VT 67.18 29.07 66.09 30.67 35.41 38.11 -2.70
47 VA 55.77 43.29 54.11 44.00 10.11 12.49 -2.37
48 WA 60.77 37.00 57.97 38.77 19.20 23.76 -4.56
49 WV 33.77 64.49 29.70 68.63 -38.94 -30.71 -8.22
50 WI 53.69 45.38 49.45 48.82 0.63 8.31 -7.68
51 WY 31.05 65.78 26.55 69.94 -43.38 -34.73 -8.65
Source: U.S. Senate election results, Washington Post, based on Cook Political Report (vote shares);
FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast, Senate - Model outputs - At bottom of page, click on "Model outputs"
(after "Download the data") and extract the file senate_state_toplines_2020.csv (projections)
Shift from 538_deluxe Prediction Margins to Vote Share Margins in Senate Races in 2020
District Dem_pred Rep_pred Dem_vote Rep_vote MarginV MarginP Shift
1 AK 44.61 50.36 41.2 53.9 -12.7 -5.75 -6.95
2 AL 45.57 54.43 39.7 60.1 -20.4 -8.86 -11.54
3 AR 0.00 76.14 0.0 66.5 NA NA NA
4 AZ 52.61 47.39 51.2 48.8 2.4 5.22 -2.82
5 CO 51.66 43.99 53.5 44.2 9.3 7.67 1.63
6 DE 63.95 33.10 59.4 37.9 21.5 30.85 -9.35
7 GA-1 49.03 49.31 47.9 49.7 -1.8 -0.27 -1.53
8 GA-2 32.75 21.95 32.9 25.9 7.0 10.80 -3.80
9 IA 48.16 49.56 45.2 51.8 -6.6 -1.40 -5.20
10 ID 34.85 58.69 33.3 62.6 -29.3 -23.85 -5.45
11 IL 59.45 35.49 54.9 38.9 16.0 23.96 -7.96
12 KS 45.79 51.63 41.8 53.2 -11.4 -5.84 -5.56
13 KY 42.55 55.50 38.2 57.8 -19.6 -12.95 -6.65
14 LA 15.13 41.10 19.0 59.3 -40.3 -25.97 -14.33
15 MA 65.68 31.51 66.1 33.1 33.0 34.17 -1.17
16 ME 50.96 49.04 42.4 51.0 -8.6 1.91 -10.51
17 MI 52.30 45.30 49.9 48.2 1.7 7.01 -5.31
18 MN 54.79 42.47 48.8 43.5 5.3 12.32 -7.02
19 MS 44.79 53.95 44.0 54.1 -10.1 -9.17 -0.93
20 MT 48.37 51.63 45.0 55.0 -10.0 -3.26 -6.74
21 NC 50.49 47.35 46.9 48.7 -1.8 3.14 -4.94
22 NE 30.59 62.56 25.1 64.6 -39.5 -31.97 -7.53
23 NH 57.68 40.65 56.7 41.0 15.7 17.03 -1.33
24 NJ 61.54 36.03 57.2 40.9 16.3 25.51 -9.21
25 NM 54.93 42.03 51.7 45.6 6.1 12.91 -6.81
26 OK 37.45 59.72 32.8 62.9 -30.1 -22.27 -7.83
27 OR 60.27 35.89 56.9 39.3 17.6 24.38 -6.78
28 RI 74.02 25.98 66.6 33.4 33.2 48.04 -14.84
29 SC 46.63 51.72 44.2 54.5 -10.3 -5.08 -5.22
30 SD 38.10 61.90 34.3 65.7 -31.4 -23.79 -7.61
31 TN 36.62 59.55 35.2 62.1 -26.9 -22.93 -3.97
32 TX 45.26 52.55 43.9 53.5 -9.6 -7.29 -2.31
33 VA 58.16 40.03 56.0 44.0 12.0 18.14 -6.14
34 WV 36.39 60.67 27.0 70.3 -43.3 -24.28 -19.02
35 WY 32.30 67.70 26.9 73.1 -46.2 -35.40 -10.80
Source: U.S. Senate election results, Washington Post, based on Cook Political Report (vote shares);
FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast, Senate - Model outputs - At bottom of page, click on "Model outputs"
(after "Download the data") and extract the file senate_state_toplines_2020.csv (projections)
Shift from 538_classic Prediction Margins to Vote Share Margins in Senate Races in 2020
District Dem_pred Rep_pred Dem_vote Rep_vote MarginV MarginP Shift
1 AK 45.31 49.67 41.2 53.9 -12.7 -4.36 -8.34
2 AL 45.93 54.07 39.7 60.1 -20.4 -8.14 -12.26
3 AR 0.00 72.75 0.0 66.5 NA NA NA
4 AZ 52.88 47.12 51.2 48.8 2.4 5.77 -3.37
5 CO 51.90 43.75 53.5 44.2 9.3 8.15 1.15
6 DE 64.23 32.83 59.4 37.9 21.5 31.40 -9.90
7 GA-1 49.42 48.93 47.9 49.7 -1.8 0.49 -2.29
8 GA-2 32.99 21.79 32.9 25.9 7.0 11.20 -4.20
9 IA 48.82 48.89 45.2 51.8 -6.6 -0.07 -6.53
10 ID 35.37 58.17 33.3 62.6 -29.3 -22.80 -6.50
11 IL 59.60 35.35 54.9 38.9 16.0 24.25 -8.25
12 KS 46.27 51.15 41.8 53.2 -11.4 -4.88 -6.52
13 KY 43.80 54.24 38.2 57.8 -19.6 -10.45 -9.15
14 LA 16.20 39.00 19.0 59.3 -40.3 -22.80 -17.50
15 MA 65.97 31.22 66.1 33.1 33.0 34.75 -1.75
16 ME 50.96 49.04 42.4 51.0 -8.6 1.93 -10.53
17 MI 52.83 44.77 49.9 48.2 1.7 8.05 -6.35
18 MN 53.23 44.03 48.8 43.5 5.3 9.20 -3.90
19 MS 46.91 51.83 44.0 54.1 -10.1 -4.92 -5.18
20 MT 48.57 51.43 45.0 55.0 -10.0 -2.86 -7.14
21 NC 50.80 47.03 46.9 48.7 -1.8 3.77 -5.57
22 NE 30.91 62.23 25.1 64.6 -39.5 -31.32 -8.18
23 NH 57.66 40.66 56.7 41.0 15.7 17.00 -1.30
24 NJ 61.74 35.83 57.2 40.9 16.3 25.92 -9.62
25 NM 53.54 43.43 51.7 45.6 6.1 10.11 -4.01
26 OK 38.11 59.06 32.8 62.9 -30.1 -20.95 -9.15
27 OR 60.43 35.73 56.9 39.3 17.6 24.70 -7.10
28 RI 74.32 25.68 66.6 33.4 33.2 48.63 -15.43
29 SC 46.74 51.61 44.2 54.5 -10.3 -4.87 -5.43
30 SD 38.63 61.37 34.3 65.7 -31.4 -22.73 -8.67
31 TN 37.21 58.96 35.2 62.1 -26.9 -21.74 -5.16
32 TX 45.57 52.25 43.9 53.5 -9.6 -6.68 -2.92
33 VA 57.57 40.61 56.0 44.0 12.0 16.96 -4.96
34 WV 36.89 60.17 27.0 70.3 -43.3 -23.28 -20.02
35 WY 32.61 67.39 26.9 73.1 -46.2 -34.78 -11.42
Source: U.S. Senate election results, Washington Post, based on Cook Political Report (vote shares);
FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast, Senate - Model outputs - At bottom of page, click on "Model outputs"
(after "Download the data") and extract the file senate_state_toplines_2020.csv (projections)
Shift from 538_deluxe Prediction Margins to Vote Share Margins in 2020
District Dem_pred Rep_pred Dem_vote Rep_vote MarginV MarginP Shift
1 AK-1 46.85 53.15 45.42 54.58 -9.17 -6.30 -2.86
2 AL-1 35.99 64.01 35.57 64.43 -28.86 -28.02 -0.83
3 AL-2 35.31 64.69 34.72 65.28 -30.57 -29.38 -1.19
4 AL-3 32.24 67.76 32.49 67.51 -35.03 -35.51 0.48
5 AL-4 18.62 81.38 17.70 82.30 -64.61 -62.75 -1.85
10 AR-2 48.60 51.40 44.63 55.37 -10.73 -2.79 -7.94
11 AR-3 33.31 63.33 33.09 66.91 -33.81 -30.03 -3.79
12 AR-4 30.04 66.62 28.33 71.67 -43.34 -36.58 -6.76
13 AZ-1 54.76 45.24 51.61 48.39 3.22 9.52 -6.30
14 AZ-2 58.38 41.62 55.12 44.88 10.23 16.77 -6.54
15 AZ-3 67.09 32.91 64.57 35.43 29.15 34.18 -5.03
16 AZ-4 28.87 71.13 30.24 69.76 -39.52 -42.26 2.74
17 AZ-5 36.22 63.78 41.10 58.90 -17.80 -27.57 9.77
18 AZ-6 49.39 50.61 47.83 52.17 -4.35 -1.22 -3.13
19 AZ-7 78.42 21.58 76.71 23.29 53.42 56.84 -3.41
20 AZ-8 38.00 62.00 40.43 59.57 -19.13 -24.00 4.87
21 AZ-9 63.56 36.44 61.63 38.37 23.25 27.12 -3.87
22 CA-1 43.40 56.60 43.01 56.99 -13.99 -13.21 -0.78
23 CA-10 56.30 43.70 55.16 44.84 10.33 12.60 -2.27
24 CA-11 73.41 26.59 72.99 27.01 45.99 46.82 -0.84
26 CA-13 92.32 7.68 90.37 9.63 80.73 84.64 -3.91
27 CA-14 81.70 18.30 79.29 20.71 58.57 63.40 -4.82
28 CA-15 75.42 24.58 70.90 29.10 41.81 50.84 -9.04
29 CA-16 64.77 35.23 59.38 40.62 18.76 29.54 -10.78
30 CA-17 78.17 21.83 71.35 28.65 42.69 56.34 -13.65
32 CA-19 76.61 23.39 71.68 28.32 43.36 53.21 -9.85
33 CA-2 77.39 22.61 75.74 24.26 51.48 54.78 -3.31
34 CA-20 78.52 21.48 76.78 23.22 53.55 57.05 -3.50
35 CA-21 50.92 49.08 49.55 50.45 -0.89 1.83 -2.72
36 CA-22 42.07 57.93 45.77 54.23 -8.45 -15.86 7.40
37 CA-23 33.93 66.07 37.86 62.14 -24.28 -32.15 7.87
38 CA-24 60.51 39.49 58.66 41.34 17.33 21.02 -3.69
39 CA-25 50.49 49.51 49.95 50.05 -0.10 0.99 -1.09
40 CA-26 64.42 35.58 60.58 39.42 21.17 28.84 -7.67
41 CA-27 73.62 26.38 69.78 30.22 39.55 47.24 -7.68
42 CA-28 78.40 21.60 72.66 27.34 45.31 56.79 -11.48
44 CA-3 59.70 40.30 54.67 45.33 9.35 19.40 -10.06
45 CA-30 75.99 24.01 69.48 30.52 38.97 51.97 -13.00
46 CA-31 63.93 36.07 61.29 38.71 22.58 27.86 -5.29
47 CA-32 71.72 28.28 66.58 33.42 33.16 43.44 -10.29
48 CA-33 73.12 26.88 67.58 32.42 35.16 46.24 -11.08
50 CA-35 72.09 27.91 69.33 30.67 38.66 44.17 -5.51
51 CA-36 58.44 41.56 60.34 39.66 20.68 16.87 3.80
52 CA-37 88.74 11.26 85.94 14.06 71.88 77.48 -5.60
54 CA-39 52.30 47.70 49.40 50.60 -1.20 4.61 -5.80
55 CA-4 43.55 56.45 44.05 55.95 -11.89 -12.91 1.02
56 CA-40 84.59 15.41 72.74 27.26 45.48 69.19 -23.71
57 CA-41 65.69 34.31 64.04 35.96 28.09 31.39 -3.30
58 CA-42 43.05 56.95 42.87 57.13 -14.25 -13.91 -0.34
59 CA-43 75.65 24.35 71.68 28.32 43.37 51.30 -7.93
61 CA-45 57.25 42.75 53.46 46.54 6.93 14.50 -7.57
62 CA-46 71.58 28.42 68.75 31.25 37.51 43.16 -5.65
63 CA-47 67.14 32.86 63.27 36.73 26.54 34.29 -7.74
64 CA-48 52.04 47.96 48.94 51.06 -2.12 4.08 -6.20
65 CA-49 58.74 41.26 53.13 46.87 6.26 17.48 -11.22
66 CA-5 78.32 21.68 76.09 23.91 52.18 56.64 -4.46
67 CA-50 44.35 55.65 46.05 53.95 -7.91 -11.29 3.39
68 CA-51 74.31 25.69 68.30 31.70 36.61 48.62 -12.01
69 CA-52 65.69 34.31 61.58 38.42 23.17 31.38 -8.21
71 CA-6 77.49 22.51 73.34 26.66 46.69 54.99 -8.30
72 CA-7 60.66 39.34 56.62 43.38 13.25 21.32 -8.07
73 CA-8 42.21 57.79 43.94 56.06 -12.12 -15.59 3.47
74 CA-9 61.62 38.38 57.58 42.42 15.17 23.24 -8.08
75 CO-1 71.81 23.50 75.79 24.21 51.57 48.31 3.26
76 CO-2 62.44 32.78 63.45 36.55 26.90 29.66 -2.76
77 CO-3 46.33 48.60 46.80 53.20 -6.40 -2.27 -4.13
78 CO-4 38.47 57.41 37.85 62.15 -24.30 -18.94 -5.36
79 CO-5 36.76 59.11 39.36 60.64 -21.29 -22.35 1.06
80 CO-6 57.18 38.98 58.83 41.17 17.66 18.20 -0.54
81 CO-7 59.59 36.12 61.13 38.87 22.26 23.47 -1.21
82 CT-1 65.13 34.87 64.58 35.42 29.17 30.26 -1.09
83 CT-2 61.54 38.46 60.83 39.17 21.67 23.08 -1.41
84 CT-3 61.60 35.65 59.63 40.37 19.27 25.95 -6.69
85 CT-4 64.95 35.05 63.15 36.85 26.30 29.90 -3.60
86 CT-5 58.71 41.29 55.88 44.12 11.76 17.42 -5.66
87 DE-1 60.15 36.09 58.89 41.11 17.79 24.06 -6.27
88 FL-1 31.96 65.12 34.49 65.51 -31.02 -33.16 2.14
89 FL-10 67.40 32.60 63.62 36.38 27.25 34.80 -7.55
90 FL-11 31.91 68.09 33.28 66.72 -33.44 -36.17 2.73
91 FL-12 36.35 63.65 37.12 62.88 -25.76 -27.29 1.53
92 FL-13 57.85 42.15 53.04 46.96 6.08 15.70 -9.62
93 FL-14 65.21 34.79 60.26 39.74 20.52 30.41 -9.90
94 FL-15 46.89 53.11 44.61 55.39 -10.77 -6.22 -4.55
95 FL-16 45.31 54.69 44.50 55.50 -11.00 -9.38 -1.62
96 FL-17 33.98 63.24 34.52 65.48 -30.96 -29.25 -1.71
97 FL-18 42.99 54.54 42.43 57.57 -15.14 -11.54 -3.60
98 FL-19 36.82 63.18 38.72 61.28 -22.56 -26.35 3.79
100 FL-20 82.75 17.25 78.68 21.32 57.35 65.49 -8.14
101 FL-21 60.96 36.79 60.15 39.85 20.30 24.17 -3.86
102 FL-22 63.20 36.80 58.60 41.40 17.20 26.39 -9.19
103 FL-23 62.98 37.02 58.20 41.80 16.41 25.97 -9.56
104 FL-24 81.60 15.30 78.74 21.26 57.48 66.30 -8.82
106 FL-26 54.10 45.90 48.28 51.72 -3.45 8.21 -11.66
107 FL-27 53.58 46.42 48.63 51.37 -2.74 7.16 -9.89
108 FL-3 40.19 59.81 42.86 57.14 -14.28 -19.61 5.33
109 FL-4 38.07 61.93 38.90 61.10 -22.20 -23.86 1.66
110 FL-5 67.10 32.90 65.13 34.87 30.26 34.20 -3.94
111 FL-6 36.11 63.89 39.37 60.63 -21.27 -27.79 6.52
112 FL-7 57.12 40.34 56.14 43.86 12.28 16.78 -4.50
113 FL-8 35.74 64.26 38.65 61.35 -22.71 -28.52 5.81
114 FL-9 58.06 41.94 56.03 43.97 12.07 16.12 -4.05
115 GA-1 36.68 63.32 41.65 58.35 -16.70 -26.64 9.94
116 GA-10 32.38 67.62 37.69 62.31 -24.62 -35.23 10.61
117 GA-11 37.27 62.73 39.57 60.43 -20.85 -25.45 4.60
118 GA-12 35.60 61.59 41.62 58.38 -16.76 -25.99 9.23
119 GA-13 71.18 25.88 77.40 22.60 54.80 45.30 9.50
120 GA-14 22.78 77.22 25.29 74.71 -49.42 -54.44 5.02
121 GA-2 57.91 42.09 59.12 40.88 18.23 15.81 2.42
122 GA-3 29.62 70.38 34.95 65.05 -30.09 -40.76 10.67
123 GA-4 76.64 23.36 80.08 19.92 60.15 53.28 6.87
124 GA-5 83.46 16.54 85.15 14.85 70.30 66.93 3.37
125 GA-6 52.32 47.68 54.59 45.41 9.18 4.64 4.54
126 GA-7 49.34 50.66 51.39 48.61 2.78 -1.31 4.10
127 GA-8 28.93 68.15 35.48 64.52 -29.04 -39.21 10.17
128 GA-9 20.03 79.97 21.42 78.58 -57.16 -59.94 2.78
129 HI-1 75.09 24.91 72.03 27.97 44.05 50.19 -6.13
130 HI-2 69.45 25.18 67.13 32.87 34.26 44.27 -10.01
131 IA-1 54.01 45.99 48.70 51.30 -2.60 8.03 -10.63
132 IA-2 54.27 45.73 50.00 50.00 0.00 8.53 -8.54
133 IA-3 52.26 45.13 50.72 49.28 1.44 7.13 -5.69
134 IA-4 41.96 58.04 37.88 62.12 -24.23 -16.07 -8.16
135 ID-1 32.29 62.81 29.72 70.28 -40.57 -30.52 -10.05
136 ID-2 33.01 61.69 33.12 66.88 -33.75 -28.68 -5.08
137 IL-1 75.22 21.30 73.84 26.16 47.67 53.93 -6.25
138 IL-10 68.10 31.90 63.88 36.12 27.76 36.19 -8.43
139 IL-11 66.14 33.86 63.30 36.70 26.60 32.27 -5.68
140 IL-12 39.89 60.11 39.57 60.43 -20.86 -20.22 -0.65
141 IL-13 48.82 51.18 45.54 54.46 -8.93 -2.36 -6.56
142 IL-14 54.83 45.17 50.67 49.33 1.34 9.66 -8.32
143 IL-15 27.65 68.38 26.55 73.45 -46.89 -40.74 -6.16
144 IL-16 39.50 60.50 35.28 64.72 -29.43 -21.01 -8.43
145 IL-17 56.07 43.93 52.03 47.97 4.05 12.14 -8.09
146 IL-18 31.02 68.98 29.59 70.41 -40.82 -37.96 -2.86
147 IL-2 81.04 18.96 78.81 21.19 57.63 62.07 -4.45
148 IL-3 59.29 40.71 56.38 43.62 12.76 18.59 -5.83
149 IL-4 84.67 15.33 84.05 15.95 68.11 69.34 -1.23
150 IL-5 73.06 23.59 72.66 27.34 45.32 49.47 -4.15
151 IL-6 53.42 43.45 53.76 46.24 7.52 9.98 -2.46
152 IL-7 84.42 11.87 85.77 14.23 71.53 72.55 -1.02
154 IL-9 73.62 26.38 70.98 29.02 41.96 47.24 -5.27
155 IN-1 61.89 34.45 58.34 41.66 16.68 27.44 -10.77
156 IN-2 40.78 59.22 38.51 61.49 -22.99 -18.44 -4.55
157 IN-3 32.18 67.82 32.16 67.84 -35.68 -35.65 -0.03
158 IN-4 32.80 67.20 33.38 66.62 -33.25 -34.40 1.15
159 IN-5 48.35 48.31 47.87 52.13 -4.25 0.05 -4.30
160 IN-6 28.21 68.45 28.79 71.21 -42.42 -40.24 -2.18
161 IN-7 67.09 32.91 62.44 37.56 24.87 34.18 -9.31
162 IN-8 32.27 64.46 30.83 69.17 -38.33 -32.19 -6.14
163 IN-9 37.70 59.08 36.35 63.65 -27.31 -21.38 -5.93
164 KS-1 32.66 67.34 28.84 71.16 -42.32 -34.68 -7.64
165 KS-2 42.86 52.92 42.42 57.58 -15.15 -10.06 -5.10
166 KS-3 56.86 40.15 55.17 44.83 10.35 16.71 -6.36
167 KS-4 39.10 60.90 36.35 63.65 -27.30 -21.81 -5.50
168 KY-1 28.28 71.72 25.01 74.99 -49.99 -43.43 -6.55
169 KY-2 31.56 65.02 27.01 72.99 -45.98 -33.47 -12.51
170 KY-3 64.50 35.50 62.67 37.33 25.33 28.99 -3.66
171 KY-4 33.74 66.26 32.91 67.09 -34.17 -32.51 -1.66
172 KY-5 19.84 80.16 15.79 84.21 -68.42 -60.31 -8.10
173 KY-6 44.90 52.91 41.67 58.33 -16.65 -8.01 -8.64
174 LA-1 23.30 73.75 25.95 74.05 -48.10 -50.45 2.35
175 LA-2 66.49 9.16 78.84 21.16 57.69 57.33 0.36
176 LA-3 18.21 67.34 30.32 69.68 -39.37 -49.13 9.77
177 LA-4 18.46 45.16 33.26 66.74 -33.48 -26.70 -6.78
178 LA-5 7.46 21.17 32.16 67.84 -35.67 -13.71 -21.96
179 LA-6 26.74 70.02 26.45 73.55 -47.10 -43.28 -3.82
181 MA-2 66.22 33.78 65.39 34.61 30.79 32.44 -1.65
183 MA-4 65.61 34.39 61.01 38.99 22.02 31.22 -9.20
184 MA-5 72.94 27.06 74.39 25.61 48.78 45.87 2.91
185 MA-6 62.11 34.70 65.52 34.48 31.04 27.41 3.64
188 MA-9 62.15 37.85 62.79 37.21 25.57 24.30 1.27
189 MD-1 33.57 66.43 36.45 63.55 -27.11 -32.86 5.75
190 MD-2 65.96 34.04 67.89 32.11 35.77 31.92 3.86
191 MD-3 69.97 30.03 69.90 30.10 39.80 39.93 -0.13
192 MD-4 80.29 19.71 79.74 20.26 59.48 60.57 -1.09
193 MD-5 71.32 28.68 68.94 31.06 37.89 42.63 -4.75
194 MD-6 57.81 39.13 60.02 39.98 20.03 18.68 1.36
195 MD-7 70.84 29.16 71.86 28.14 43.73 41.67 2.06
196 MD-8 70.51 29.49 68.36 31.64 36.72 41.01 -4.29
197 ME-1 62.45 37.55 62.16 37.84 24.31 24.91 -0.60
198 ME-2 56.91 43.09 53.05 46.95 6.09 13.82 -7.73
199 MI-1 38.47 58.60 37.41 62.59 -25.19 -20.13 -5.06
200 MI-10 38.53 61.47 33.72 66.28 -32.56 -22.94 -9.62
201 MI-11 55.02 42.17 51.21 48.79 2.43 12.85 -10.42
202 MI-12 68.94 27.99 68.41 31.59 36.83 40.95 -4.12
203 MI-13 79.17 16.61 80.72 19.28 61.44 62.57 -1.13
204 MI-14 79.57 16.25 81.24 18.76 62.48 63.32 -0.84
205 MI-2 39.78 56.01 39.23 60.77 -21.53 -16.24 -5.30
206 MI-3 49.46 50.54 47.04 52.96 -5.92 -1.07 -4.85
207 MI-4 34.57 62.13 33.24 66.76 -33.52 -27.56 -5.96
208 MI-5 60.35 36.38 56.60 43.40 13.19 23.97 -10.78
209 MI-6 45.93 50.45 41.83 58.17 -16.34 -4.53 -11.81
210 MI-7 43.97 56.03 41.25 58.75 -17.50 -12.05 -5.45
211 MI-8 55.29 41.89 51.83 48.17 3.66 13.40 -9.73
212 MI-9 62.16 34.57 60.04 39.96 20.08 27.59 -7.51
213 MN-1 47.15 49.15 48.37 51.63 -3.27 -2.00 -1.27
214 MN-2 54.09 42.35 51.20 48.80 2.40 11.74 -9.35
215 MN-3 58.33 41.67 55.64 44.36 11.29 16.66 -5.37
216 MN-4 67.53 28.79 68.56 31.44 37.12 38.73 -1.62
217 MN-5 68.09 27.96 71.33 28.67 42.65 40.14 2.52
218 MN-6 34.84 65.16 34.21 65.79 -31.58 -30.31 -1.27
219 MN-7 45.02 51.48 42.74 57.26 -14.52 -6.45 -8.07
220 MN-8 40.40 56.10 39.82 60.18 -20.35 -15.71 -4.65
221 MO-1 77.98 17.98 80.60 19.40 61.21 60.00 1.21
222 MO-2 46.73 50.48 46.73 53.27 -6.54 -3.75 -2.79
223 MO-3 27.57 69.11 29.13 70.87 -41.73 -41.54 -0.19
224 MO-4 30.12 66.59 30.50 69.50 -38.99 -36.47 -2.52
225 MO-5 60.64 36.32 60.27 39.73 20.55 24.32 -3.78
226 MO-6 29.20 67.54 31.82 68.18 -36.37 -38.33 1.97
227 MO-7 24.82 71.77 27.82 72.18 -44.35 -46.95 2.60
228 MO-8 24.55 72.00 21.75 78.25 -56.50 -47.45 -9.05
229 MS-1 31.62 68.38 31.25 68.75 -37.49 -36.77 -0.73
230 MS-2 73.54 26.46 66.02 33.98 32.05 47.08 -15.04
231 MS-3 33.31 66.69 35.33 64.67 -29.34 -33.38 4.04
233 MT-1 47.50 52.50 43.61 56.39 -12.77 -5.01 -7.77
234 NC-1 57.24 42.76 54.18 45.82 8.35 14.48 -6.12
235 NC-10 31.85 68.15 31.09 68.91 -37.82 -36.30 -1.52
236 NC-11 45.75 50.74 43.72 56.28 -12.56 -4.99 -7.57
238 NC-13 33.02 66.98 31.82 68.18 -36.36 -33.97 -2.39
239 NC-2 62.02 34.76 64.38 35.62 28.76 27.26 1.51
240 NC-3 34.49 65.51 36.62 63.38 -26.77 -31.02 4.26
241 NC-4 70.13 29.87 67.33 32.67 34.66 40.27 -5.61
242 NC-5 30.84 66.28 31.73 68.27 -36.54 -35.44 -1.10
243 NC-6 61.40 35.01 62.27 37.73 24.55 26.40 -1.85
244 NC-7 37.35 62.65 39.66 60.34 -20.69 -25.29 4.61
245 NC-8 48.47 51.53 46.72 53.28 -6.57 -3.06 -3.50
246 NC-9 44.77 55.23 44.41 55.59 -11.18 -10.45 -0.73
247 ND-1 29.12 66.31 28.55 71.45 -42.91 -37.19 -5.72
248 NE-1 39.36 57.24 38.76 61.24 -22.48 -17.88 -4.60
249 NE-2 47.76 49.49 47.65 52.35 -4.70 -1.73 -2.98
250 NE-3 21.09 75.19 18.38 81.62 -63.25 -54.10 -9.15
251 NH-1 52.34 45.17 52.62 47.38 5.23 7.17 -1.94
252 NH-2 57.42 42.58 55.23 44.77 10.46 14.85 -4.39
253 NJ-1 67.92 32.08 62.48 37.52 24.96 35.83 -10.87
254 NJ-10 84.43 12.37 85.70 14.30 71.40 72.06 -0.66
255 NJ-11 58.66 41.34 53.30 46.70 6.61 17.33 -10.72
256 NJ-12 70.56 29.44 66.83 33.17 33.66 41.12 -7.46
257 NJ-2 50.03 49.97 47.07 52.93 -5.87 0.05 -5.92
258 NJ-3 55.83 44.17 53.93 46.07 7.86 11.66 -3.79
259 NJ-4 40.12 59.88 38.99 61.01 -22.01 -19.76 -2.25
260 NJ-5 59.17 40.83 53.80 46.20 7.61 18.34 -10.73
261 NJ-6 65.33 34.67 61.17 38.83 22.33 30.65 -8.32
262 NJ-7 52.91 47.09 50.61 49.39 1.22 5.82 -4.59
263 NJ-8 77.40 19.58 75.07 24.93 50.15 57.82 -7.67
264 NJ-9 70.91 29.09 67.37 32.63 34.75 41.82 -7.07
265 NM-1 59.73 36.43 58.19 41.81 16.38 23.29 -6.92
266 NM-2 50.48 49.52 46.27 53.73 -7.45 0.96 -8.41
267 NM-3 62.35 37.65 58.68 41.32 17.36 24.70 -7.33
268 NV-1 67.30 28.65 64.92 35.08 29.84 38.64 -8.80
269 NV-2 38.96 57.50 41.89 58.11 -16.22 -18.54 2.33
270 NV-3 52.13 44.08 51.58 48.42 3.16 8.05 -4.89
271 NV-4 50.88 45.69 52.52 47.48 5.04 5.19 -0.14
272 NY-1 44.81 52.53 45.14 54.86 -9.71 -7.72 -1.99
273 NY-10 78.06 18.40 75.52 24.48 51.03 59.65 -8.62
274 NY-11 50.83 49.17 46.86 53.14 -6.29 1.67 -7.96
275 NY-12 82.43 14.33 83.33 16.67 66.65 68.10 -1.45
276 NY-13 89.79 6.74 92.12 7.88 84.24 83.05 1.20
277 NY-14 77.03 19.39 72.32 27.68 44.63 57.64 -13.01
278 NY-15 91.55 3.90 88.88 11.12 77.75 87.65 -9.90
279 NY-16 85.96 0.00 84.17 15.83 68.34 85.96 -17.62
280 NY-17 62.22 33.71 62.72 37.28 25.44 28.51 -3.07
281 NY-18 55.70 41.69 56.33 43.67 12.66 14.01 -1.35
282 NY-19 55.30 41.65 55.91 44.09 11.82 13.65 -1.83
283 NY-2 48.99 47.43 46.51 53.49 -6.98 1.56 -8.54
284 NY-20 62.08 37.92 61.17 38.83 22.35 24.17 -1.82
285 NY-21 41.51 58.49 41.17 58.83 -17.67 -16.98 -0.69
286 NY-22 50.92 46.32 50.00 50.00 0.00 4.60 -4.60
287 NY-23 40.58 56.73 41.61 58.39 -16.79 -16.16 -0.63
288 NY-24 47.50 49.91 44.71 55.29 -10.58 -2.41 -8.17
289 NY-25 62.03 34.82 60.25 39.75 20.49 27.22 -6.73
290 NY-26 67.81 29.34 70.89 29.11 41.78 38.47 3.31
291 NY-27 37.28 58.58 39.50 60.50 -20.99 -21.30 0.30
292 NY-3 58.25 38.87 56.29 43.71 12.58 19.38 -6.80
293 NY-4 60.78 36.13 56.63 43.37 13.25 24.65 -11.39
295 NY-6 73.67 26.33 67.98 32.02 35.96 47.34 -11.38
296 NY-7 87.18 9.05 85.46 14.54 70.91 78.12 -7.21
297 NY-8 89.10 10.90 84.83 15.17 69.66 78.20 -8.53
298 NY-9 83.63 12.30 83.97 16.03 67.94 71.33 -3.39
299 OH-1 48.02 49.40 46.29 53.71 -7.41 -1.38 -6.03
300 OH-10 45.23 54.77 41.64 58.36 -16.71 -9.54 -7.17
301 OH-11 79.30 20.70 80.05 19.95 60.11 58.59 1.51
302 OH-12 42.90 54.60 43.06 56.94 -13.88 -11.69 -2.19
303 OH-13 57.42 39.63 53.88 46.12 7.75 17.79 -10.03
304 OH-14 41.08 58.92 39.90 60.10 -20.20 -17.83 -2.36
305 OH-15 37.67 62.33 36.57 63.43 -26.85 -24.66 -2.19
306 OH-16 36.77 63.23 36.81 63.19 -26.38 -26.47 0.09
307 OH-2 39.65 60.35 38.91 61.09 -22.18 -20.70 -1.47
308 OH-3 71.68 25.12 70.85 29.15 41.70 46.56 -4.86
309 OH-4 32.78 63.73 30.17 69.83 -39.67 -30.95 -8.72
310 OH-5 37.11 62.89 32.00 68.00 -36.00 -25.78 -10.21
311 OH-6 28.80 71.20 25.59 74.41 -48.83 -42.41 -6.42
312 OH-7 34.20 62.72 30.18 69.82 -39.64 -28.52 -11.12
313 OH-8 31.46 68.54 31.02 68.98 -37.95 -37.07 -0.88
314 OH-9 67.75 32.25 63.08 36.92 26.16 35.50 -9.34
315 OK-1 33.99 63.30 33.91 66.09 -32.18 -29.31 -2.87
316 OK-2 26.77 70.32 22.67 77.33 -54.66 -43.55 -11.11
317 OK-3 23.31 76.69 21.51 78.49 -56.98 -53.38 -3.61
318 OK-4 29.24 67.93 29.80 70.20 -40.40 -38.70 -1.71
319 OK-5 50.07 49.93 47.94 52.06 -4.12 0.15 -4.27
320 OR-1 67.00 33.00 64.72 35.28 29.44 34.00 -4.56
321 OR-2 36.31 58.71 38.15 61.85 -23.71 -22.40 -1.31
322 OR-3 73.08 21.82 75.65 24.35 51.31 51.26 0.05
323 OR-4 51.26 44.69 52.72 47.28 5.44 6.57 -1.13
324 OR-5 57.94 42.06 53.47 46.53 6.94 15.88 -8.94
325 PA-1 45.42 52.22 43.44 56.56 -13.12 -6.81 -6.31
326 PA-10 49.79 50.21 46.69 53.31 -6.62 -0.42 -6.20
327 PA-11 34.65 65.35 36.88 63.12 -26.25 -30.69 4.45
328 PA-12 29.20 70.80 29.16 70.84 -41.68 -41.59 -0.09
329 PA-13 26.57 73.43 26.53 73.47 -46.95 -46.86 -0.09
330 PA-14 33.43 66.57 35.30 64.70 -29.39 -33.15 3.76
331 PA-15 27.46 72.54 26.54 73.46 -46.92 -45.07 -1.84
332 PA-16 42.35 57.65 40.66 59.34 -18.68 -15.29 -3.39
333 PA-17 55.21 44.79 51.15 48.85 2.29 10.43 -8.13
334 PA-18 67.21 29.56 69.25 30.75 38.50 37.64 0.85
335 PA-2 78.50 21.50 72.53 27.47 45.06 56.99 -11.93
336 PA-3 91.61 8.39 91.02 8.98 82.04 83.22 -1.18
337 PA-4 59.23 37.98 59.53 40.47 19.06 21.25 -2.20
338 PA-5 68.26 31.74 64.70 35.30 29.40 36.52 -7.12
339 PA-6 59.16 38.14 56.05 43.95 12.11 21.01 -8.91
340 PA-7 55.12 42.18 52.13 47.87 4.26 12.94 -8.68
341 PA-8 55.11 44.89 51.77 48.23 3.54 10.23 -6.68
342 PA-9 33.86 66.14 33.67 66.33 -32.66 -32.29 -0.37
344 RI-2 64.42 35.58 58.37 41.63 16.74 28.83 -12.09
345 SC-1 51.28 48.72 49.37 50.63 -1.27 2.55 -3.82
346 SC-2 40.90 55.93 43.35 56.65 -13.30 -15.02 1.72
347 SC-3 28.79 71.21 28.72 71.28 -42.56 -42.42 -0.14
348 SC-4 34.69 62.43 37.46 62.54 -25.09 -27.74 2.65
349 SC-5 40.30 59.70 39.89 60.11 -20.23 -19.39 -0.83
350 SC-6 70.85 25.85 68.87 31.13 37.74 45.00 -7.26
351 SC-7 38.08 61.92 38.16 61.84 -23.67 -23.84 0.17
353 TN-1 23.77 72.48 23.12 76.88 -53.76 -48.70 -5.06
354 TN-2 31.16 65.80 31.46 68.54 -37.07 -34.63 -2.44
355 TN-3 29.67 66.95 31.18 68.82 -37.63 -37.29 -0.35
356 TN-4 33.68 66.32 33.33 66.67 -33.33 -32.64 -0.69
358 TN-6 23.18 73.68 24.56 75.44 -50.88 -50.50 -0.38
359 TN-7 28.20 68.37 28.10 71.90 -43.79 -40.17 -3.62
360 TN-8 27.22 69.37 30.11 69.89 -39.78 -42.15 2.37
361 TN-9 76.67 19.77 79.38 20.62 58.76 56.90 1.86
362 TX-1 28.61 71.39 27.42 72.58 -45.16 -42.79 -2.37
363 TX-10 42.59 54.41 46.35 53.65 -7.29 -11.81 4.52
364 TX-11 18.15 78.00 18.67 81.33 -62.66 -59.85 -2.81
365 TX-12 28.97 67.98 34.15 65.85 -31.71 -39.00 7.29
366 TX-13 16.07 80.03 18.86 81.14 -62.27 -63.96 1.68
367 TX-14 37.61 62.39 38.36 61.64 -23.28 -24.79 1.51
368 TX-15 57.76 39.44 51.47 48.53 2.93 18.32 -15.39
369 TX-16 68.83 28.18 64.72 35.28 29.44 40.66 -11.22
370 TX-17 39.07 57.51 42.28 57.72 -15.43 -18.44 3.01
371 TX-18 73.57 22.88 75.72 24.28 51.43 50.69 0.74
372 TX-19 21.23 75.56 23.41 76.59 -53.18 -54.34 1.16
373 TX-2 37.94 59.16 43.49 56.51 -13.03 -21.22 8.19
374 TX-20 66.69 30.08 66.14 33.86 32.28 36.61 -4.33
375 TX-21 46.63 50.43 46.61 53.39 -6.79 -3.81 -2.98
376 TX-22 46.52 50.03 46.40 53.60 -7.20 -3.51 -3.69
377 TX-23 50.59 45.63 47.96 52.04 -4.08 4.97 -9.04
378 TX-24 47.68 48.17 49.31 50.69 -1.38 -0.49 -0.89
379 TX-25 43.90 53.24 42.95 57.05 -14.10 -9.34 -4.76
380 TX-26 31.58 65.39 38.07 61.93 -23.87 -33.81 9.94
381 TX-27 31.77 65.26 35.65 64.35 -28.70 -33.49 4.79
382 TX-28 65.71 31.46 59.93 40.07 19.86 34.25 -14.39
383 TX-29 72.67 24.30 72.21 27.79 44.42 48.37 -3.96
384 TX-3 42.84 54.11 43.77 56.23 -12.45 -11.27 -1.18
385 TX-30 75.45 21.34 80.80 19.20 61.61 54.11 7.50
386 TX-31 41.95 54.75 45.32 54.68 -9.36 -12.79 3.43
387 TX-32 52.63 44.22 53.07 46.93 6.15 8.41 -2.26
388 TX-33 73.97 22.56 72.65 27.35 45.31 51.41 -6.10
389 TX-34 63.11 33.69 56.99 43.01 13.97 29.42 -15.45
390 TX-35 68.68 28.02 68.58 31.42 37.17 40.67 -3.50
391 TX-36 23.47 72.95 24.79 75.21 -50.42 -49.49 -0.93
392 TX-4 21.00 75.22 23.12 76.88 -53.76 -54.21 0.45
393 TX-5 31.47 65.51 36.69 63.31 -26.62 -34.04 7.42
394 TX-6 43.11 53.91 45.44 54.56 -9.11 -10.80 1.69
395 TX-7 51.24 46.13 51.70 48.30 3.39 5.11 -1.71
396 TX-8 20.96 75.81 25.99 74.01 -48.01 -54.85 6.83
397 TX-9 77.97 18.43 77.72 22.28 55.44 59.54 -4.10
398 UT-1 33.64 66.36 30.45 69.55 -39.10 -32.72 -6.38
399 UT-2 35.26 55.63 38.31 61.69 -23.39 -20.37 -3.02
400 UT-3 28.35 60.36 28.03 71.97 -43.94 -32.00 -11.94
401 UT-4 46.48 45.44 49.47 50.53 -1.06 1.04 -2.10
402 VA-1 41.80 55.26 41.77 58.23 -16.47 -13.46 -3.01
403 VA-10 59.59 40.41 56.58 43.42 13.15 19.17 -6.02
404 VA-11 72.47 27.53 71.59 28.41 43.19 44.95 -1.76
405 VA-2 52.66 44.93 52.95 47.05 5.90 7.73 -1.83
406 VA-3 69.64 30.36 68.50 31.50 37.00 39.28 -2.28
407 VA-4 62.37 37.63 61.71 38.29 23.42 24.74 -1.32
408 VA-5 49.94 50.06 47.42 52.58 -5.15 -0.12 -5.04
409 VA-6 35.26 61.71 35.33 64.67 -29.34 -26.45 -2.88
410 VA-7 53.23 46.77 50.91 49.09 1.82 6.46 -4.64
411 VA-8 77.86 22.14 75.97 24.03 51.94 55.72 -3.78
413 VT-1 65.98 28.29 71.36 28.64 42.73 37.69 5.04
414 WA-1 62.97 37.03 58.62 41.38 17.25 25.93 -8.69
416 WA-2 70.06 29.94 63.24 36.76 26.48 40.13 -13.65
417 WA-3 46.68 53.32 43.50 56.50 -13.01 -6.63 -6.38
418 WA-4 33.69 66.31 33.69 66.31 -32.63 -32.62 -0.01
419 WA-5 39.64 60.36 38.59 61.41 -22.82 -20.72 -2.10
420 WA-6 64.65 35.35 59.45 40.55 18.90 29.31 -10.41
421 WA-7 86.46 13.54 83.19 16.81 66.37 72.91 -6.54
422 WA-8 57.92 42.08 51.79 48.21 3.57 15.84 -12.27
423 WA-9 78.10 21.90 74.26 25.74 48.52 56.20 -7.68
424 WI-1 40.23 59.77 40.65 59.35 -18.71 -19.54 0.83
425 WI-2 73.18 26.82 69.72 30.28 39.45 46.36 -6.91
426 WI-3 54.29 45.71 51.33 48.67 2.66 8.59 -5.93
427 WI-4 75.03 21.68 76.68 23.32 53.36 53.35 0.00
428 WI-5 38.87 61.13 39.86 60.14 -20.29 -22.27 1.98
429 WI-6 39.99 60.01 40.74 59.26 -18.51 -20.03 1.51
430 WI-7 40.61 59.39 39.23 60.77 -21.53 -18.77 -2.76
431 WI-8 37.38 62.62 35.80 64.20 -28.40 -25.25 -3.15
432 WV-1 31.21 65.43 31.02 68.98 -37.95 -34.22 -3.74
433 WV-2 37.96 62.04 36.92 63.08 -26.15 -24.08 -2.07
434 WV-3 31.96 68.04 28.66 71.34 -42.67 -36.07 -6.60
435 WY-1 31.19 68.81 26.39 73.61 -47.23 -37.63 -9.60
Source: 2020 National House Vote Tracker, Cook Report (Excel, Sheet1)
FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast, House - Model outputs
