Claim of 1.4 million computer science jobs with only 400,000 computer science graduates to fill them

Sources for the Claim

As can be seen in the references below, the White House blog has a post dated December 11, 2013 that contains the following statement:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that by 2020 there will be 1.4 million computer-science-related jobs available and only 400,000 computer science graduates with the skills to apply for those jobs.

Then, about a year later, the White House web site contains a factsheet dated December 8, 2014 that contains the following statement:

By 2020, more than 50 percent of STEM jobs are projected to be in computer science-related fields. If current trends continue, 1.4 million computer science-related jobs will be available over the next ten years, but only 400,000 computer science graduates will be added with the skills to apply for those jobs.

Hence, the blog post gives the source as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (but gives no link) and the fact sheet gives no source at all. However, the Hillary Clinton web site contains a factsheet dated June 27, 2016 (according to the URL) that repeats the same basic claim but does link to a source:

—and by 2020, there will be 1.4 million computer-science related jobs in America, with only 400,000 computer science graduates to fill them.[5]

The footnote [5] references an ITIF paper which itself references a Code.org chart. That chart does not give a source but text with the same chart at code.org lists the sources "College Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NSF". Likewise, an earlier report from Microsoft which has similar numbers gives the source for the jobs number to be the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the source for the graduates number to be the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).

Analysis of the Claim

Overview of the Claim using the Code.org Chart

Figure 1 below basically replicates the original
Code.org chart. As can be seen, it shows the projection of 400,000 computer science students (actually, graduates with bachelor degrees in computer science) and 100,000 unfilled computing jobs in 2020. Figure 2 is a slightly revised version of the chart. The main difference is the addition of the blue area that shows a revised estimate of computer science students that is explained in the next section. Figure 2 also starts in 2010 to make clearer that these are new jobs since 2010 and not all jobs. It also changes the label "CS Graduates" to "US CS Grads" to clarify that the projection is looking only at computer science graduates from U.S. colleges. Finally, Figure 2 changes the label of "Unfilled Jobs" to "Not US CS Grads" since the assumption that computing jobs can only be filled by graduates with computer science degrees from U.S. colleges is false (as explained below).

Original code.org chart of new jobs vs. Computer Science Students: 2010-2020 Revised code.org chart of new jobs vs. Computer Science Students: 2010-2020

400,000 Graduates Projection based on 2010 Level which has Increased

Going to the second link from the Microsoft report, it's possible to ensure that "NCES Degrees Awarded by Degree Level and Field" is selected and click on the View button next to it. Following is information from 2014 on degrees for Computer Science, Mathematics, and Statistics:
                                                                                         Post-        Post-       Less than
                               Doctorate      Master's    Bachelor's   Associate's      Master's  Baccalaureate    4 Year
                                 Degrees       Degrees       Degrees       Degrees  Certificates  Certificates  Certificates         Total
--------------------------  ------------  ------------  ------------  ------------  ------------  ------------  ------------  ------------
Computer Science                   1,983        24,635        56,130        37,643            89         1,641        28,108       150,229
Mathematics and Statistics         1,864         7,784        22,226         2,140            30           324           184        34,552
As can be seen, there are 56,130 bachelor degrees in 2014, well more than the 40,000 per year estimated by Microsoft. Following are the number of bachelor's degree from 2000 to 2014 for both computer sciences and mathematics and statistics:
S&E bachelor’s degrees, by field: 2000–14 (Thousands)

 2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  Field
-----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  --------------------------
37.52  43.60  49.71  57.93  59.97  54.59  48.00  42.60  38.92  38.50  40.11  43.59  47.96  51.59  56.13  Computer sciences
11.71  11.44  12.25  12.86  13.74  14.82  15.31  15.55  15.84  16.21  16.83  18.02  19.81  21.57  21.40  Mathematics and statistics

Source: Data for 2000-2013 from figure 2-15, Science & Engineering Indicators 2016, Chapter 2
The above table shows that the estimate of 40,000 CS bachelor degrees per year appears to be based on the level in 2010. This is close to the low that was reached in 2009 during the financial crisis. This can also be seen in the graph on the second page of a powerpoint presented by Michael Wolf of the Bureau of Labor Statistics that was presented at a workshop on August 15, 2016. As can be seen, the number of such degrees reached about 60,000 in 2004 and is close to achieving that level again. Hence, 40,000 has proved to be a very bad estimate, at least until now. The column labelled "Actual w/ 2014 ext" in the following table shows what the estimate would be if the actual numbers from 2011 to 2014 were used and the value for 2014 is extended to 2015 through 2020.
                 Computer Science Bachelor Deg.     Unfilled CS Jobs
            New	 -------------------------------  --------------------
      Computing   Code.org             Actual w/   Code.org    Revised
Year       Jobs   Estimate     Actual   2014 ext   Estimate   Estimate
----  ---------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ---------  ---------
2010          0          0      40.11       0.00          0       0.00
2011        140         40      43.59      43.59        100      96.41
2012        280         80      47.96      91.55        200     188.45
2013        420        120      51.59     143.14        300     276.86
2014        560        160      56.13     199.27        400     360.73
2015        700        200                255.40        500     444.60
2016        840        240                311.53        600     528.47
2017        980        280                367.66        700     612.34
2018       1120        320                423.79        800     696.21
2019       1260        360                479.92        900     780.08
2020       1400        400                536.05       1000     863.95
This difference between the old and new estimate is shown as the blue area in Figure 2. As can be seen, it decreases the number of "unfilled jobs" by 136,000. This is a fairly conservative estimate since it seems likely that the number of computer science bachelor degrees will continue to increase after 2014 rather than remain at the 2014 level as assumed by the estimate.

1.4 Million Jobs Projection is Likely Out of Date

Going to the Bureau of Labor link from the Microsoft report, it's possible to then click on Economic and Employment Projections in the Archived section and then click on the PDF link for the 2010-2020 Projections. Table 5 on page 10 gives the projected change in employment for Computer and Mathematical Occupations to be 778.3 thousand. However, page 4 contains a section titled "Replacement needs" that explains that job openings will also come from the need to replace workers who retire or otherwise permanently leave an occupation. The document does not contain the replacement needs for computer jobs specifically but this information was found on the BLS site in a table titled Occupational employment, job openings and worker characteristics. The table currently gives projections for 2014 to 2024 but the Internet Archive: Wayback Machine makes it possible to find the projections for 2012 to 2022 and 2010 to 2020 as well. Following is the data for computer occupations from those three time spans:
Table 1.7 Occupational employment and job openings data, 10-year projected, and worker characteristics, first year
(Numbers in thousands)
                                               Employment    Employment change  Percent     Job openings     Median
                               First  Last   --------------  -----------------   self      due to growth     annual   First Date
Title                  Code     Year  Year   First    Last     Number  Percent  employed  and replacements    wage      Archived
--------------------  -------  -----  ----  -------  -------  -------  -------  --------  ----------------  -------  -----------
Computer Occupations  15-1100   2010  2020  3,426.0  4,184.7    758.8    22.1      4.5         1,366.2      $73,710   04-13-2012
Computer occupations  15-1100   2012  2022  3,682.3  4,333.6    651.3    17.7      3.0         1,240.1      $76,270   12-20-2013
Computer occupations  15-1100   2014  2024  3,916.1  4,404.6    488.5    12.5      2.6         1,083.8      $81,430   01-01-2015
As can be seen above, the BLS did project nearly 1.4 million job openings in computer occupations from 2010 to 2020. However, this dropped to about 1.2 million for 2012 to 2022 and 1.1 million for 2014 to 2024. It would seem wise to use updated projections than to continue to quote projections that were made over 4 year ago. Unfortunately, it's not easy to update the 2010-2020 projections since the later projections are for different 10-year periods. Current projections for 2010-2020 should likely be lower to more closely match the later 10-year periods but it is possible that the higher number is due to the hiring back of computer workers who were laid off in the financial crisis. In that case, however, the additional jobs may be "recovered jobs", not "new jobs".

The 1.4 Million Jobs and 4000,000 Graduates Projections come from Different Sources and Comparing Them is an Incorrect Comparison

As can be seen in the references to the claim below, many of them attribute both numbers to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As mentione above, however, the 400,000 graduates projection comes from a totally different source. This is addressed in the Techcrunch reference of January 12, 2016 which states the following:

Many citations incorrectly say that BLS projects the shortage when, in actuality, BLS economist Jennifer Chi clarified in an email that all of these attempts are made by third parties. “[It is] an incorrect comparison of the total employment and total labor force projections, which are two separate and fundamentally different measures.”

Hence, an economist from the Bureau of Labor Statistics states that the comparison of the 1.4 million and 400,000 number is an incorrect comparison.

Assumption that All Job Openings must be filled by Computer Science Graduates is Unfounded

An Economic Policy Institute report critiqued the Microsoft report. It contains a section titled "Computer science graduates aren’t the only workers in computer-related occupations" that begins as follow:

The first significant problem with Microsoft’s report is the assumption that job openings “in computing” not filled by college graduates with computer science (CS) degrees will go unfilled. It is a well-known fact that computer science graduates are not the only source of new hires in computing. In the late 1990s, the Department of Commerce (DOC) published a report warning of looming labor shortages in the information technology (IT) sector, citing the lack of college graduates with CS degrees as a principal reason (DOC 1997). The Government Accounting Office (GAO)1 later published a report chastising the DOC for its faulty methodologies, noting that “IT workers come from a variety of educational backgrounds and have a variety of educational credentials such as master’s degrees, associate degrees, or special certifications” (GAO 1998, 8). National Science Foundation (NSF) data at the time indicated that “only about 25 percent of those employed in computer and information science jobs in 1993 actually had degrees in computer and information science” (GAO 1998, 5).

The same is true in the main computer-related occupations, according to the most recent comparable NSF data, presented in Table 1. As the table shows, even in the occupation where one would most expect workers to hold a CS degree—computer and information science researchers—only 43 percent (approximately two out of every five) hold a CS degree. A similar percentage (41 percent) of computer software engineers have CS degrees, as do computer system analysts (39 percent); and 17 percent to 29 percent of workers in the remaining listed computer-related occupations earned a CS degree. Professor Norman Matloff of the University of California, Davis, recently conducted a similar analysis of data from the NSF’s National Survey of College Graduates, which showed that “only 40.2% of those with Software Engineer, Programmer or Computer Scientist titles came to the profession from a CS degree” (Matloff 2012, 5). It is important to note that neither of these data sets includes workers with less than a bachelor’s-level education; as Matloff mentions in his paper, many titans of the tech world, including Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, and Mark Zuckerberg, do not have a college degree in any field.

The above arguments and others are also covered in a paper titled The STEM Anxiety Business published in March of 2016.

The Projections Do Not Account for Computer Science Graduates from non-U.S. Colleges

According to some estimates, there are somewhere in the area of 650,000 to 800,000 H-1B Visa workers in the U.S. in recent years. According to Table 8.B on page 13 of this USCIS document, about 65 percent of H-1B Visa workers are in computer-related occupations. Many, if not most, of these workers graduated from non-U.S. colleges. In addition, there is a continuing flow of immigrants who have Computer Science degrees from non-U.S. colleges. None of these workers are accounted for in these estimates.

Sources

The sources for this claim reveal a problem with many of these types of claims. It seems that many references to such claims give no specific source. In fact, the White House web site seems to have a very bad habit of this. The
second source given above provides no source for the claim. Likewise, this analysis points to this page on the White House web site which states that "[e]conomic projections indicate that by 2018, there could be 2.4 million unfilled STEM jobs". However, it makes no mention as to where these projections come from. Next, this analysis points to this post on the White House blog which states that "[l]ast year, there were more than 600,000 high-paying tech jobs across the United States that were unfilled". The post is by Megan Smith, the U.S. Chief Technology Officer, but gives absolutely no source for the claim. Finally, this analysis points to this post on the White House blog which states that "[e]very foreign-born graduate with an advanced STEM degree is associated with, on average, 2.6 jobs for American workers". This post is by Todd Park, the U.S. Chief Technology Officer just before Megan Smith. It likewise provides no source for the claim.

Often references do name the source but do not link to or otherwise provide a specific source by which anyone can verify the number(s) in question. That is the case with the first source given above which states that the numbers are Bureau of Labor Statistics projections. With no link, however, it's not possible to tell that only one of the numbers (the 1.4 million jobs) actually came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As can be seen in the references listed below, a large number of them wrongly give the Bureau of Labor Statistics as the source for both of the numbers. This would imply that the BLS made some effort to ensure that the numbers were comparable. Since they are the source of only one of the numbers, however, this cannot be the case.

Finally, some other references simply source or provide a link to another reference that suffers from one of the previously described problems. This is the case with the third source given above. As a result of all of these problems, it's impossible for anyone to verify the claim. It's also possible for the claim to change over time. In this case, the claim morphed from Microsoft's claim that there could be a shortfall of 80,000 computer science graduates per year to the claim that there would be a million unfilled jobs by 2020.

Summary

The 400,000 projection of computer science graduates appears to have come from extrapolating the 2010 figure and has proven to be significantly low. It appears that the BLS did project nearly 1.4 million computer science-related jobs for 2010-2020 but that projection has dropped for later 10-year periods and may need to be revised. In any event, these two numbers come from different sources and a BLS economist states that comparing the two is an "incorrect comparison".

Still, the biggest error is the assumption that the only people who can hold computer jobs are computer science graduates from U.S. colleges. As stated above, the assumption that only computer science graduates can hold computer science-related jobs has never held in the past and there is no evidence that it will hold in the future. And, stunningly, this projection makes no accounting for all of the H-1B Visa workers and recent immigrants who graduated from non-U.S. colleges.

All of these errors were likely made more possible by the bad or missing sourcing by nearly all of the references. Of the many references listed below, only the 2012 Microsoft source correctly attributes the two numbers in the claim to two different sources. Of course, this is because it seems to be the chief originator of the claim.

References to the Claim

Following are references to the claim that, by 2020, there will be 1.4 million computer-science related jobs in America, with only 400,000 computer science graduates to fill them. Some of the early references in 2012 refer to 2018 instead of 2020 and some later ones into early 2013 refer to 1.2 million instead of 1.4 million jobs. They all refer to 400,000 computer science graduates over ten years (or 40,000 annually).

2012 References

  1. Helping STEM Grow: Knowledge to Fuel Innovation - Lisa Hook, U.S. News & World Report, March 30, 2012 - It's been predicted that by 2018, there will be 1.4 million "computing" job openings in the country, but current educational patterns indicate that we'll have only about 400,000 graduates with appropriate degrees by then.

  2. High Tech Worker Shortage: Has Anything Changed? - Mark Koba, CNBC, 29 May 2012 - It's estimated that by 2018, there will be some 1.4 million tech-related job openings [U.S. News & World Report] in the U.S., but the country will have only about 400,000 college grads to fill them.

  3. A National Talent Strategy - Microsoft, September 27, 2012 - As one recent study predicted, between 2010 and 2020, the American economy will annually produce more than 120,000 additional computing jobs that will require at least a bachelor’s degree,[4] but the country’s higher education system is currently producing only 40,000 bachelor’s degrees in computer science annually.[5]

    Footnotes:
    [4] This estimate is based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ occupational employment and job openings data, projected for 2010–2020. Available at http://www.bls.gov/emp/.
    [5] Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System from the U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Available at https://webcaspar.nsf.gov.

  4. STEM labor shortages? Microsoft report distorts reality about computing occupations - Daniel Costa, November 19, 2012 - Microsoft warns that since only about 40,000 Americans graduate with a bachelor’s degree in computer science each year, many of the 120,000 projected job openings in computing occupations each year will go unfilled.

  5. If tech is so important, why are IT wages flat? - Patrick Thibodeau, Dec 5, 2012 - In its report, Microsoft says that the U.S. economy each year is producing 120,000 additional computing jobs that require at least a bachelor's degree, but only about 40,000 computer science bachelor's degrees are awarded annually.

2013 References

  1. Immigration Wars: Forging an American Solution - Jeb Bush & Clint Bolick, March 5, 2013 - The United States creates 120,000 jobs each year requiring a bachelor's degree in computer science, yet produces only 40,000 graduates annually with such degrees ...

  2. Look! Mark Zuckerberg Has Charm and Passion [Video] - Neal Campbell, SocialNewsDaily, March 18, 2013 - By 2020, there will be 1.4 million computer jobs with only 400,000 computer science students qualified to fulfill those jobs.

  3. Sorry, College Grads, I Probably Won't Hire You - Kirk Mcdonald, May 9, 2013 - According to one recent report, in the next decade American colleges will mint 40,000 graduates with a bachelor's degree in computer science, though the U.S. economy is slated to create 120,000 computing jobs that require such degrees.

  4. Computer Science is for Everyone! - Tom Kalil and Farnam Jahanian, White House Blog, December 11, 2013 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that by 2020 there will be 1.4 million computer-science-related jobs available and only 400,000 computer science graduates with the skills to apply for those jobs.

  5. Tech Companies Work to Combat Computer Science Education Gap - Allie Bidwell, U.S. News & World Report, December 27, 2013 - Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show, for example, that by 2020, there will be 1.4 million new computer science jobs, but only 400,000 computer science students.

2014 References

  1. 1.4M Computing Jobs in America By 2020, But Fewer Computer Science Graduates - Jeremy Brown, Tech.Co, March 13, 2014 - Industry trends indicate that by 2020, there will be 1.4 million computing jobs available. On the surface this sounds great, but there’s a problem. According to Code.org, colleges will only graduate 400,000 computer science student by 2020.

  2. Every student in every school should have the opportunity to learn computer science - code.org, May 13, 2014 - Chart showing 1.4 million computering jobs and 400,000 computer science students from 2011 to 2020.
    Sources: College Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NSF

  3. Google Invests $50 Million to Close the Tech Gender Gap - Eliana Dockterman, Time.com, June 19, 2014 - There will be 1.4 million computing jobs available in 2020, but only 400,000 computer-science graduates from U.S. universities to fill them.

  4. Coding in the Classroom: What is Coding and Why is it so Important? - Anthony Cuthbertson, International Business Times, August 29, 2014 - Over the next 10 years it is estimated that there will be 1.4 million jobs in computer sciences and only around 400,000 graduates qualified to do them.

  5. Computer science: It's where the jobs are, but schools don't teach it - Dan Lewis, San Jose Mercury News, September 12, 2014 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics says 1.4 million new jobs in computing will be created this decade. That's more than all the new jobs in all other science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields combined. Yet only about 400,000 students are expected to earn bachelor's degrees in computing during the same period.

  6. U.S. Could Face Serious Deficit of Computer Scientists by 2020 - Taylor Gordon, Atlanta Blackstar, September 25, 2014 - According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, there will be roughly 1.4 million jobs for computer scientists by 2020. Unfortunately, the number of current computer professionals combined with the number of university students studying the profession only reaches 400,000.

  7. FACT SHEET: New Commitments to Support Computer Science Education - White House, Office of the Press Secretary, December 08, 2014 - If current trends continue, 1.4 million computer science-related jobs will be available over the next ten years, but only 400,000 computer science graduates will be added with the skills to apply for those jobs.

  8. Should Big Data Skills Be Taught in K–12 Classrooms? - D. Frank Smith, EdTech, December 30, 2014 - The shortage cited by the report aligns with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ projection [White House site] of a massive shortage in the IT workforce by 2020. According to the agency, there will be 1.4 million openings but only 400,000 computer science graduates with the necessary skills to fill the positions.

2015 References

  1. Changing the face of coding - Lori Forte Harnick, Official Microsoft Blog, July 15, 2015 - According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, every year there are close to 140,000 jobs requiring a CS degree, but only 40,000 U.S. college graduates major in CS, which means that 100,000 positions go unfilled by domestic talent.

  2. Computer Science, America’s Untapped Opportunity - codeorg PDF, empow.me, October 2015 - chart labels: 1,000,000 unfilled programming jobs, 400,000 computer science graduates, Sources: BLS, NSF, Bay Area Council Economic Institute

2016 References

  1. Unlocking Trapped Engineers, Vivek Ravisankar, Techcrunch, January 12, 2016 - Using statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it’s projected that 1.4 million positions will be open in computing with only 400,000 computer science grads. Hence, there will be a shortage of 1 million programmers.

    Many citations incorrectly say that BLS projects the shortage when, in actuality, BLS economist Jennifer Chi clarified in an email that all of these attempts are made by third parties. “[It is] an incorrect comparison of the total employment and total labor force projections, which are two separate and fundamentally different measures.”

  2. The STEM Anxiety Business, Robert N. Charette, ITABHI Corporation, March 2016 - As Table 1 indicates, the BLS estimates that 1.24 million such jobs will need to be filled by that date. Microsoft claimed in a widely circulated report that all of these jobs would require computer science degrees, yet the BLS expects only 400,000 Americans to earn such a degree by 2022.

  3. Four Reasons Computer Science should be Offered at Every School - Edhesive, Online Learning that Sticks, March 2, 2016 - And by the year 2020, there will be 1.4 million computing jobs, for only 400,000 computer science students—that’s 1 million computing jobs without qualified graduates to fill them, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  4. What It Will Take to Make the Tech Industry More Diverse - Susan Colby, Helen Ma, Kelsey Robinson, and Lareina Yee, Harvard Business Review, March 15, 2016 - By 2020, there will be an estimated 1.4 million engineering and computer science jobs [BLS] in the U.S., for a growth rate that’s twice the national average. Yet there won’t be nearly enough American computer science students to fill those jobs. Only 400,000 computer science students are expected to graduate in 2020, leaving a wide talent gap of 1 million.

  5. The Case for Improving U.S. Computer Science Education - Adams Nager and Robert D. Atkinson, ITIF, May 2016 - In 2011, Code.org projected that the economy would add 1.4 million computing jobs by 2020, but educate just 400,000 computer science students by then. [9]
    [9] https://code.org/images/cs-stats/more-jobs-than-students.png

  6. Six Ways Fathers Can Inspire Their Daughters In Technology - Samantha Walravens and Heather Cabot, Forbes.com, June 16, 2016 - According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2020 there will be 1.4 million new computer science jobs, but only 400,000 computer science graduates with the skills to apply for them.
    Note: Surprisingly, the BLS report linked to by the reference above contradicts its own numbers, projecting just 778.3 new computer jobs and making no mention of the number of graduates.

  7. Why Computer Science Should Be Compulsory in Schools - Microsoft Citizenship Asia Pacific, June 21, 2016 - In fact, there will be an estimated 1.4 million jobs in computer sciences over the next 10 years, but only around 400,000 graduates qualified to do them.

  8. Tech experts sound the alarm on computer science classes - Darlene Aderoju, edscoop.com, June 22, 2016 - There will be an expected 1.4 million computer science jobs available by 2020 and only 400,000 computer scientists to fill them, ...

  9. Hillary Clinton’s Initiative on Technology & Innovation - hillaryclinton.com, June 27, 2016 - ... and by 2020, there will be 1.4 million computer-science related jobs in America, with only 400,000 computer science graduates to fill them.[5]
    [5] Nager, Adams and Atkinson, Robert, “The Case for Improving U.S. Computer Science Education,” The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation, May 2016. http://www2.itif.org/2016-computer-science-education.pdf.

  10. 4 Reasons You're Not Too Old to Learn to Code - Awesome Inc U, July 6, 2016 - There will be 1.4 million programming jobs unfilled with only 400,000 graduates in Computer Science!

  11. Bay Area girls stream into summer coding camps - Patrick May, San Jose Mercury News, July 10, 2016 - With an estimated 1.4 million computer science jobs expected by 2020, and only about 400,000 qualified applicants to fill them, the pressure is on to create coders...

  12. Want to Close the Racial Wealth Gap? Diversify the Technology Industry - Laura Weidman Powers, Pacific Standard, July 12, 2016 - Analysts project 1.4 million jobs open in tech in 2020 but only 400,000 graduates with corresponding degrees

  13. Jones Teaches Tech to Underrepresented Minorities - John Klyce Minervini, New Memphis Institute, July 13, 2016 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that, by 2020, there will be 1.4 million new computing jobs in the United States—and only 400,000 computer science grads to fill them.

  14. Clinton tech agenda takes the Silicon Valley line - Caroline Craig, InfoWorld, July 29, 2016 - Clinton notes that "... Meanwhile, there were over half a million good-paying tech jobs unfilled last year -- and by 2020, there will be 1.4 million computer-science related jobs in America, with only 400,000 computer science graduates to fill them. ..."

  15. What is the Tech Gender Gap? - BCNet staff, August 8, 2016 - With an estimated 1.4 million computer-science jobs expected by 2020, and only about 400,000 qualified applicants to fill them, the pressure's on to create coders, especially among women who?ve been outnumbered by men by a wide margin in the tech industry for years.

  16. Camp hopes to close tech industry gender gap by teaching girls to code - Perry Stein, Washington Post, August 9, 2016 - By 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates there will be 1.4 million computer science job openings but just 400,000 people with the skills to fill them.

  17. Opinion: Standing Behind Hillary Clinton's Vision for Technology and Innovation - Dilawar Syed, NBC News, August 9, 2016 - According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, by 2020 we will need to fill 1.4 million computer science jobs in America. But there will be only 400,000 graduates available to fill them.

  18. Up Next: CodingConnect - Andrew Bauld, August 18, 2016 - Highlighting the severity of this issue, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that by 2020 there will be 1.4 million new computer science jobs in the U.S., but only 400,000 qualified students graduating with the necessary skills.

  19. Silicon Valley sucks at training software engineers — and that’s a problem - Sylvain Kalache, Holberton School August 20, 2016 - Everyone likes to refer to Megan Smith, chief technology officer of the United States and former Google executive, who said, “There’s going to be 1.4 million tech and I.T. jobs coming within the next decade and only 400,000 trained people to fill them.”

  20. Silicon Valley Sucks At Training Software Engineers — And That’s A Problem - BestTheNews, August 20, 2016 - Everyone likes to refer to Megan Smith, chief technology officer of the United States and former Google executive, who said, “There’s going to be 1.4 million tech and I.T. jobs coming within the next decade and only 400,000 trained people to fill them.”

  21. Coding And Computer Science: Necessary Courses In 21St Century Schools - Emily Vickery, p21.org, August 23, 2016 - "By 2020, more than 50 percent of STEM jobs are projected to be in computer science-related fields. If current trends continue, 1.4 million computer science-related jobs will be available over the next ten years, but only 400,000 computer science graduates will be added with the skills to apply for those jobs. (Source) [White House web site]"

  22. Want Your Kids to Build the Next Airbnb, Snapchat, or Uber? Teach Them This Skill - BY GLENN LEIBOWITZ, Inc., September 2, 2016 - Hadi Partovi, co-founder of Code.org, estimates that 1.4 million programming jobs will be needed over the next decade while current projections are for only 400,000 graduates in the field.

  23. New nonprofit group aims to diversify tech industry - Alice Vagun, The Badger Herald, September 6, 2016 - By 2020, the Bureau of Labor projects there will be 1.4 million new tech-based jobs, but only 400,000 potential tech students to fill them.

  24. Presidential Science Debate 2016 - sciencedebate.org, September 13, 2016 - In 2020, estimates show there will be 1.4 million computer-science related jobs in the United States, but current projections show we only have 400,000 computer science graduates to fill them.

  25. What Do the Presidential Candidates Know about Science? - Christine Gorman, Scientific American, September 13, 2016 - In 2020, estimates show there will be 1.4 million computer-science related jobs in the United States, but current projections show we only have 400,000 computer science graduates to fill them.

  26. What are the Best Majors for Jobs of the Future? - Terri Williams, GoodCall, September 13, 2016 - Barbier tells GoodCall, “According to Megan Smith, chief technology officer of the United States and former Google executive, within the next decade there will be 1.4 million tech and IT jobs, but roughly 400,000 qualified employees.”

  27. Empowering women through film at the Breckenridge Film Festival Sept. 16 - Heather Jarvis, Summit Daily, September 14, 2016 - Soon after, Reynolds saw a White House report stating that by 2020, there would be 1.4 million computer-science related jobs, and only 400,000 computer scientists, leaving 1 million jobs unfilled by U.S. workers.

  28. CODING 101: What you need to know - Allyson Farmer, The Isthmus.com.au, September, 18, 2016 - Not only are they well paid but coding related jobs are in high demand with predictions showing over the next 10 years it is estimated that there will be a major ‘skills gap’ with 1.4 million jobs in computer sciences and only around 400,000 graduates qualified to do them.

  29. Drop-in series: Curious about computer science? Take this course. - Millie Acebal, FIU News, September, 20, 2016 - According to Charters, there will be 1.4 million new jobs using computing by the year 2020 (Bureau of Labor Statistics), but only 400,000 computer science graduates, permeating the existing problem of unfilled jobs.

  30. NCCU Awarded Google Community Grant for STEM Education - North Carolina Central University, September, 21, 2016 - In a recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report, researchers concluded that by 2020 there will be 1.4 million computer-science-related job openings but only 400,000 qualified applicants with computer science degrees.

  31. Get Coding Skills Using Alternative Learning Methods - Hack College, September, 21, 2016 - By 2020, the US Bureau of Labor estimates a need for software workers to fill 1.4 million new developer job openings. But only 400,000 computer science graduates are currently available to fill them.

  32. 2016’s Top Presidential Science, Engineering, Tech, Health & Environmental Questions – Question 8 - The Heart On The Left, September 22, 2016 - In 2020, estimates show there will be 1.4 million computer-science related jobs in the United States, but current projections show we only have 400,000 computer science graduates to fill them.

  33. Coding for Kids – 3 FREE & Fabulous Apps - appydazeblog, September 26, 2016 - According to the developer – there will be about 1.4 million computer jobs by 2020 and only 400,000 computer science students.

  34. Here's what a Trump presidency means for the digital media industry - BI Intelligence, Business Insider, November 9, 2016 - There will be 1.4 million computer science-related jobs and only 400,000 US computer science graduates by 2020, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates cited on the White House website.

  35. COULD ONLINE DEGREES REPLACE JOB INTERVIEWS? - Tomás Franceschin, edu4.me, November 9, 2016 - According to figures of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics cited by TechCrunch, by 2020 there will be about 1.4 million open positions that require programming skills, but only 400,000 computer science grads to fill them up.

  36. Udacity, an Online Learning Start-Up, Offers Tech Job Trials - Steve Lohr, New York Times, November 17, 2016 - Half a million tech jobs went unfilled last year. By 2020, there will be 1.4 million computer-science-related jobs in America, and only 400,000 computer science graduates to fill them, according to government statistics and think-tank projections.

  37. Computer Coding Program Takes Off For Tulare County Kids - abc 30, KFSN-TV Fresno, November 20, 2016 - By the year 2020, experts say there will be 1.4 million jobs available in computer science and only 400,000 college graduates in the country to fill those to fill those positions.

  38. 17 ways to get your kids coding this holiday season - Sarah Goff-Dupont, Atlassian Blogs, November 22, 2016 - The US Bureau of Labor and Statistics reports that by 2020, there will be 1.4 million jobs in computer science, but only 400,000 computer science graduates nationwide. [U.S. News and World Report]

  39. Marana students showcase their coding skills - Brad Allis, Marana News, November 30, 2016 - During the presentation, it was noted that by 2020 there will be 1.4 million new jobs in computer science but that currently only about 400,000 students are studying computer science.

  40. Microsoft Researchers Predict What's Coming in AI for the Next Decade - Barb Darrow, Fortune, December 5, 2016 - The fact that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics expects that there will be fewer than 400,000 qualified applicants to take on 1.4 million computing jobs in 2020 means there is great opportunity for women in technology going forward.

  41. 17 for ’17: Microsoft researchers on what to expect in 2017 and 2027 - Microsoft Corporate Blogs, December 5, 2016 - By 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that there will be 1.4 million computing jobs but just 400,000 computer science students with the skills to apply for those jobs. [White House web site]

  42. Tech interns at Facebook and Snapchat make significantly more than almost all Americans - Sarah Kessler, Quartz, December 5, 2016 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has projected that by 2020 there will be only 400,000 computer science graduates for 1.4 million computer-science-related job openings. [White House web site]

  43. TSC students join the movement to learn computer science - Kiyerra Lake, wlfi.com, December 5, 2016 - Margeson said that in 2020, there will be about 1.4 million jobs available in computer science. “Right now, there’s only about 400,000 computer science students available,” she said.

  44. CIS students participate in Hour of Code - Joyanna Love, The Clayton Advertiser, December 6, 2016 - "Over the next 10 years, there will be 1.4 million jobs in computer science and only about 400,000 grads qualify for those jobs," according to Code.org.


    Information on STEM Workers
    Search of Google on shortage of STEM-related workers
    Commentary on the Skills Gap
    Composition of STEM Workers in Selected Locations: 2014
    Ages by Occupation in the Selected Locations: 2014
    Computer Workforce by Age: 2012
    H-1B Labor Condition Applications: 2001-2013
    Information on H-1B Visas
    Analyses of Studies
    Analysis of "Immigration and American Jobs"
    Analysis of the claim that each H-1B worker creates 1.83 jobs
    Analysis of the claim that each STEM worker with an advanced U.S. degrees creates 2.62 jobs
    References to Claims that Foreign-born Workers Create Jobs
    Claim that there were over half a million good-paying tech jobs unfilled last year
    Claim that there could be 2.4 million unfilled STEM jobs by 2018
    Analysis of "Foreign STEM Workers and Native Wages and Employment in U.S. Cities"
    Analysis of "STEM Workers, H-1B Visas, and Productivity in US Cities"
    A Look At Mariel Using R

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