Claims regarding computer science jobs on White House website
The following claims were all on the White House website under the Obama administration and still exist on its official archive. However, the goal of this listing is not the single out the Obama adminstration. Many of these claims are quoted by politicians in both parties. For example, the references at this link show that the last claim was made by Republican Senator Orrin Hatch here and here and a similar claim was made by Senator Ted Cruz here. Also, I've posted analyses of claims by the Trump administration on other topics here and here. Still, the White House website tends to have a great deal of authority and is often quoted. Hence, it would seem critical that these references be fixed as soon as possible.
Why data is incorrect: 2.4 million is an old estimate from 2011 of the total openings during the entire decade of 2008 to 2018. It doesn't include anyone who will be hired during the decade. For a more detailed explanation, see this link. By the way, googling "unfilled stem jobs" (without the quotes) returns this claim in the Google snippet at the top of the search page.
Source for better estimates: I am not currently aware of a good source for an estimate of the number of unfilled STEM jobs. The only source I've seen used is Burning Glass Technologies. However, this article describes concerns about this data from Hal Salzman, a professor of planning and public policy at Rutgers University. He states that "they don't publish their methodology; there is no external verification". There are other concerns about Burning Glass data listed at this link .
Why data is incorrect: 400,000 projection of computer science graduates appears to have come from extrapolating the 2010 figure and has proven to be significantly low. It appears that the BLS did project nearly 1.4 million computer science-related jobs for 2010-2020 but that projection has dropped for later 10-year periods and needs to be revised. The biggest error is the assumption that the only people who can hold computer jobs are computer science graduates from U.S. colleges. Unlike the "2.4 million unfilled STEM jobs" claim, this claim does count some of the supply of workers who will fill those jobs but severely undercounts them. For more information, see this link.
Source for better estimates: Rather than use old projections, it would make much more sense to estimate the current number of unfilled positions and then estimate how many will be added in the next two years. As explained in item 1d above, however, it is very difficult to estimate the current number of real unfilled positions. I'm looking for more information on this.
Why data is incorrect: The source for the numbers is Burning Glass Technologies. Their database and methodology are proprietary and cannot be examined or verified. For example, there is no way to verify that Burning Glass properly accounts for duplicate or fake ads and a number of other problems. It's fine for a private company to purchase and use their services since they are free to do whatever due diligence they feel is necessary. But it is not proper to use proprietary data to set public policy and not make it available for public scrutiny. For more information, see item 1b above.
Why data is incorrect: The 2.6 number is dependent upon selecting a time span that includes the tech crash of 2000-2002, a time span that included steep losses of both native and foreign workers. However, if the 2000-2007 time span of the study is moved forward two years to 2002-2009, a time span with general job gains (at least through 2008), the relationship reverses, showing a correlation between foreign job gain and native job LOSS. This suggests that, at the very least, the model that gives the 2.6 number is flawed to the point of being useless. For more information, see this link and this link.
Source for better estimates: Arguably, using this model during times of job gains would be a small improvement. The years 2002 through 2009 had a general increase in the share of foreign workers but showed a job loss of 1.2 jobs for American workers for each foreign worker jobs. I'll look to see if I can find other studies on this topic.