Analysis of Claims of Irregularities in the 2020 Presidential Election

Claims by Trump and Allies
Claims by Bobb, Christina
Claims by Fried, Joseph N., CPA, Auditor
Claims by Hemingway, Mollie
Claims by O'Donnell, Jeffrey

Claims by Trump and Allies

  • No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims about the 2020 election - PNAS, by Eggers, Garro, and Grimmer, August 20, 2021 - We assess the most prominent statistical claims offered by Trump and his allies as evidence of election fraud, including claims about Dominion voting machines switching votes from Trump to Biden, suspiciously high turnout in Democratic strongholds, and the supposedly inexplicable failure of Biden to win "bellwether counties."

  • The man behind Trump World's myth of rigged voting machines - Reuters Investigates, December 20, 2022 - Central to the election-denial movement is a galaxy of conspiracy theories about vote-flipping supercomputers. The myths can be traced to Dennis Montgomery, a programmer and former U.S. intelligence contractor. Judges have called him a fraud and a perjurer - and he has a history of promoting tall tales.

    Claims by Bobb, Christina

    Christina Bobb wrote a book titled Stealing Your Vote: The Inside Story of the 2020 Election and What It Means for 2024. There's an article about the book that appeared in the Times of San Diego titled Lone Revelation of Christina Bobb Book 'Stealing Your Vote': Mastriano Audit Trip.

    Claims by Fried, Joseph N., CPA, Auditor

    Joseph N. Fried wrote a book titled Debunked?: An auditor reviews the 2020 election-and the lessons learned. On a page titled The 2020 election was unverifiable, he lists problems with the 6 states that Trump lost and contested in 2020. For Wisconsin, he states the following:

    In an effort to spot possible irregularities, the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty did a statistical analysis of the top ten voter turnout changes for Republican wards and Democrat wards. The results are shown in Figure 1.

    Fried points to the tall column to the right of the Democratic wards and states that this is for Madison Ward 124 and that voter turnout increased in that ward by 1,285 percent. He then speculates as to the reason for this unnatural increase. He suggests that it could explain why Madison refused to cooperate with a post-election audit. He also mentions that it could be due to an increase in enthusiasm or population but that, more likely, it was due to the 200 drop boxes that were placed in the Democratic stronghold. He ends that section by stating that "What we know with certainty, however, is that an election should not be certified before serious anomalies, such as Ward 124, are investigated."

    It would seem that the first thing to investigate would be the actual number of votes in each election. In working with election data, I often have to limit the precincts to a minimum size to avoid wasting time on very small precincts in which a minor change in votes can cause a huge change when measured as a percentage. The fact that Fried doesn't take this obvious first step suggests that he may not know how to quickly check the numbers.

    A little bit of googling reveals that Wisconsin election results can be found at this link. Scrolling down the list reveals links to a file under "2016 Fall General Election Results" labeled Ward by Ward Original and Recount President of the United States.xlsx and one under "2020 Fall General Election Results" labeled Ward by Ward Report - President of the United States (under recount).xlsx. Looking inside the 2016 and 2020 files reveal the following results for Madison Ward 124:

    Year  Ward              Total  Democrat  Republican  Libertarian  Green  Scattering
    2016  Madison Ward 124      9         3           3            1      2           0
    2020  Madison Ward 124    138        97          40            0      0           1
    
    This shows the increase in total votes to have been 1,433 percent but to have been strictly due to the fact that the number of votes grew from a tiny 9 to a still small 138. Hence, Fried is wasting the time of every reader of this page with a stat that does not matter, much less indicate any sort of fraud. This could have been discovered by simply looking up the numbers.

    Claims by Hemingway, Mollie

    Mollie Hemingway wrote a book titled Rigged: How the Media, Big Tech, and the Democrats Seized Our Elections. There's a review of the book in The Guardian titled Rigged review: shameless - and dangerous - catnip for Trump's base.

    Claims by O'Donnell, Jeffrey


    2020 U.S. Election
    2016 U.S. Election Links

    Polling Election Data
    Comparing Polling and Election Results via R Shiny
    Red Shifts for 2020 Election Cycle, November 18, 2020

    Precinct Election Data
    Analysis of Reported Voting Areas via R Shiny
    Precinct Results in Iowa through 2020
    Precinct Results in Maine through 2020
    Precinct Results in North Carolina through 2020
    Precinct Results in Texas through 2020

    County Election Data
    Exploring Federal Election Results by County via R Shiny
    County Results in Arizona in 2020
    County Results in California in 2020
    County Results in Florida in 2020
    County Results in Iowa in 2020
    County Results in Kentucky in 2020
    County Results in Maine in 2020
    County Results in Montana in 2020
    County Results in Pennsylvania in 2020
    County Results in South Carolina in 2020
    County Results in Texas in 2020

    free
web stats